Nate Wilcox owes me a box of candy because DeLay stomped, as predicted offline. Rodriquez vs Cuellar is going to a runoff (or so it looks like).
Cuellar, Henry 18,007 47.88
Rodriguez, Ciro 17,051 45.34
Morales, Victor 2,549 6.78
U.S. House - District 28 - Dem Primary - 232 of 276 Precincts Reporting - 84.06% DMN
Update (Chris):
Ciro's statement to the netroots:
"As far as I am concerned we are in a run-off. We will be picking up our signs from the polls and re-using them in thirty days. Until we know exactly what happened today in Webb County, this race is not over.
"I wouldn't be here if I hadn't gotten the support of the online community. It's been overwhelming to see how people can make a difference, and make things happen by coming together, even if it an hour of blockwalking, a few phone calls or $20 and $40 dollars at a time. We must have the final word in who our leadership will be, not the special interests, and we must keep up this fight. I want to think the thousands who have given their time and resources to push this campaign forward.
"Thank you from the bottom of my heart for each and every kind word, dollar bill and one cent."
I have a postmortem already written, but I ain't posting it yet.
Update 2 (Chris): I am looking at a new line of analysis based on turnout that could change the situation, as long as the "rumor" about Webb County actually having finished its reporting is true. Here are the turnouts so far relative to 2004 in each county (except LaSalle and Zapata, which haven't finished reporting yet either).
Atascosa: 80.8% (done)
Bexar: 104.3% (99% done)
Comal: 26.3% (done)
Frio: 69.2% (done)
Guadalupe: 74.7% (done)
Hays: 131.3% (done)
McMullen: 305.1% (done--wtf?--hey went from 118 voters to 360)
Webb: 61.3% (done?)
Wilson: 75.4% (done)
As you can see, if Webb is done reporting, then obviously we are going to face a run-off as a result of low turnout in Cuellar's home base. As I said earlier in the night, even if Cuelar improves everywhere, he can still be beat by turnout. However, I don't think that Webb is done reporting. I think they still have around 35% of their vote to report (since early voting accoutned for around 65%). That means another 5K votes or so, and a Cuellar victory with around 52-53% of the vote (facotring in LaSalle and Zapata as well, which also lean Cuellar, but not by as much as Webb).
As you can see, Ciro did a good job with turnout in his home base of Bexar and Hays. However, Cuellar's 3-9% improvements in every conty except Hays and Bexar coudl very well be a sufficient counter. That is, unless Webb county really is done reporting (and if it is, then Cuellar ran theworst GOTV ever).
