MyDD :: Texas Primary Results Thread

Texas Primary Results Thread

by Chris Bowers, Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 07:36:48 PM EST

This is it. This is he first election where the netroots have tried to knock off a Democratic incumbent. As soon as they start coming in, not long after 8pm eastern, you can find updated results here.

Official Returns
Swing State Project
CQ Politics

Most Recent Updates At The Top

I have created a second results thread. There will be no more updates on this thread.
Early voting from Wilson County shows another very slight gain for Cuellar. Current projection now stands at 51.73% for Cuellar.
Chris Bell wins the Democratic gubenatorial primary.
I just did some quick calculations, and I could be way off, but turnout might be as low as 35K. It was 49K in 2004.
We seem to be in a results lull, so see what you can find out about Webb County in terms of voting history and irregularities.
OK, now with everything updated, the current results, all from early voting, are as follows: Ciro: 64.31% (6,113), Cuellar: 28.16% (2,677), Morales: 7.52% (715). Current projection, which is missing four counties which account for more than 50% of the vote and does not yet factor into turnout, still stands at Cuellar 51.63%.
The extra 6,000 votes I am recording are coming from early voting in Bexar County as reported by Swing State Project. My results are the most updated you will find, although it did just occur to me that I included a few hundred "place holder" votes that I have included in counties with no returns in order to make my porjection spreadsheet work.
OK, early Atascosa County results are a disaster. Cuellar wins a majority of early voting in the county (52.7%), whereas he only managed 37.0% of the vote here in 2004. Current projection puts Cuellar at 51.63% overall. Not good, but still early.
For a more positive spin on current results, look at it this way: in actual votes, right now Ciro is up huge, 6,105--2,529--567. That is why turnout could change everything. If Webb county reports low, it won't matter that Cuellar is up relative to 2004.
I would like to note that even though Cuellar is up relative to 2004 in all but one of the six counties that have reported early returns so far, he isn't up much. Because it is so close, Cuellar could lose even if he is up everywhere, depending on turnout. Turnout could change everything, as could eleciton day voting. And I won't be able to do any turnout estiamtes until all counties report early voting.
Early voting form LaSalle also positive for Cuellar relative to 2004. Current proejction stands at Cuellar 51.43%, although still only around 8,000 votes have been counted. We are going to need to pick things up here.
In TX-22, DeLay has just dropped a hair under 60%.
More early voting. Relative to 2004, Cuellar is up a bit in Comal County, and a little down in Hayes. Overall proejction currently stands at Cuellar 51.11%, but only 7,500 votes have come in, and that could be altered by turnout levels.
I should note that the overall vote currently shows Ciro ahead 764-469-144. However, because of the wild differences between counties in this district, and because the election was basically a tie last time, I am reporting mainly county-by-county and relative to 2004.
From Swing State Project:
According to Commissioner's Court sources in Webb County they are unable to report Early Voting because their systems are down.

Let's just hope Webb County doesn't wait to see the votes that they need to win before reporting. Locals claimed it has happened before.
Webb is Cuellar's base. Great.
The early vote form McMullen is huge for Cuellar, with 87.2%. He only pulled 60.2% of the vote there in 2004. But McMullen only makes up 0.2% of the district so it doesn't matter much.
The early vote from Bexar County shows 73.39% for Ciro, 20.85% for Cuellar, and 5.75% for Morales. The early voting from these two counties so far shows an overal 1% gain for Cuellar. It is still very early though, and we could be helped by turnout.
The early voting in in from Guadalupe County, and goes 60-30-10 Ciro-Cuellar-Morales. That is a 3% increase for Cuellar over what he did in Guadalupe in 2004. Not a great sign, but it is still a very small number of votes.

Tags: election results (all tags)

Permalink :: 38 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm nervous. I sure hope Ciro wins.

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by BoiseLiberal on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:00:14 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

C'mon, this is exciting. I don't know if ciro will win outright, but i think he'll lead cuellar.

by PantherDem on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:01:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

As much as the "NSA cave in" scandal matters, this is THE test of our longterm power.

by Citizen80203 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:01:55 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

C'mon Gammage!

Gov race is just as big as TX-28.

by Trowaman on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:03:33 PM EST

No it's not (none / 0)

This race is the first test of netbase power.

by Citizen80203 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:09:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No it's not (none / 0)

I think you're right. It is nowhere on the national level except here.

On a personal note, I helped convince my Mother in Law NOT to vote (she lives in TX 28). Before you get exited, she is a Shrub nut and kinda likes Cueller. Told her that it's just a local race and she has more important things to do like going to Mall Wart this afternoon.

by weinerdog43 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:30:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No it's not (none / 0)

Subversion on a personal level eh? Can't say it would cause me too much of a moral crisis.

by Citizen80203 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No it's not (none / 0)

I'd sure like a blow out Ciro victory, but a one vote win would not be bad either if I psyched out an old lady to go shopping instead of voting.

Subversion? I'll take it.

by weinerdog43 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 10:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Which counties should Gammage to best in?

by pelican on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Does Texas have Diebold?

by Master Jack on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:09:32 PM EST

yes (none / 0)

in webb county
and wouldn't you know it, there are already "irregularities"

-C.

by neutron on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

what is victory? (none / 0)

Let's just remember that forcing a runoff is a victory. Their side is tapped out, our side is far from the point of elasticity so forcing a runoff is great news.

by blogswarm on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:11:56 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

1 of 276 precincts in, Ciro Leads 60 (Ciro) -30 (Cuellar)-10 (moralez)

by Trowaman on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:16:05 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

That was early votes -- Guadalupe County.

my web log.

by matty fred on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:21:07 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Eh i'm not too thrilled that Cuellar is doing better than 2 years ago...

Tennesseans for Feingold

by ben114 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:25:07 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Don't worry, that was only the early votes in the county ... means absolutely nothing.

Nothing good, nothing bad. Just ... nothing.

It'll be a long few hours if you get too upset over that ...

by BriVT on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:26:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

198 votes for Cuellar a trend does not make. Don't worry too much yet.

my web log.

by matty fred on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:27:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

for those interested Delay is at 61%

Tennesseans for Feingold

by ben114 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:31:30 PM EST

Webb County (none / 0)

Webb County Last time (from Rodriguez campaign at the time):

An abnormally high number of voters in Webb County aged 90 years or older prompted an attorney for the Ciro Rodriguez congressional campaign to request an investigation by the Texas Secretary of State. During the first 4 days of early voting, 93 votes were cast by people 90 or over and 51 were 100 or older.

In a message addressed to Kim Thol, Programs Specialist for the Elections Division of the Secretary of State, Luis Vera requested "an immediate appointment for an inspector for Webb County." Vera reminded Thol, "Webb County has a long history of allegations of voter fraud." In the 2004 primary election, Vera added, "the fraud made national news." He was referring to the controversial election between Henry Cuellar and Rodriguez in which ballots, "discovered" days after the polls closed, eventually swung the election to Cuellar by a narrow 58 votes.

by blogswarm on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:40:51 PM EST

OK... (none / 0)

...so did someone plan a way to deal with this? Frankly, I hate to say it, but it seems to me one of the few ways to combat blatant election fraud is to engage in it, too.

by jonweasel on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK... (none / 0)

Our side has transparency...every single progressive blogger in America is focused on this right now.

by blogswarm on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:04:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep (none / 0)

The thing is, with a history of blatant, obvious election fraud in Webb, surely forewarned is forearmed? Our side has transparency, but how do we stop Webb from mysteriously finding lots of imaginary votes and swinging things?

There HAS to be a way.

by jonweasel on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:08:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yep (none / 0)

Tracy Joan is giving great updates from the ground at SSP, but if anyone wants to start googling the history of Webb and elections, now would be a great time to provide historical context to anything that comes down tonight.

by blogswarm on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Early votes are usually more conservative (none / 0)

So things will be fine. Non-conservatives are more likely to vote on election day than early.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:41:39 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

I'm still not too optimitric i think Cuellar is doing better eerywhere so far.

On a lighter note how is that Roger Owen guy winning the primary in the TX-01?

Tennesseans for Feingold

by ben114 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:46:57 PM EST

Where are the numbers coming from? (none / 0)

I've got here and the Sec of state open in browser tabs and the SS site has only 3 precincts showing.

by LeoinSA on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:50:20 PM EST

Relax...So Far (none / 0)

only 3 out of 276 precincts have reported. It is way to early even to compare to 2004 county results because we do not have precincts to compare, just county totals.

by Arthurkc on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:54:25 PM EST

Re: Relax...So Far (none / 0)

Understood relax - but at the top of this comment column Chris is typing in ~8000 votes counted so far when the Sec.of State site is (@ 7:57 local) is still reporting only 3 precincts and 2011 votes.

Where are the extra 6000 vote being reported at?

by LeoinSA on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 08:58:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Relax...So Far (none / 0)

I think he's confused and accidently looked at the Delay numbers, which I think he's also watching.

by LoganFerree on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And.... (none / 0)

the four precincts reporting so far are only reporting early voters, not today's vote.

by Arthurkc on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:04:46 PM EST

What is thw total right now? (none / 0)

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:16:46 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

I found this site over at RedState (yes, I am a lurker there). It lists all the TX primary vote counts.

Not sure if/how often it is updated though...

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elect ions/2006/by_state/TX_Page_0307.html?SIT E=TXDAMELN&SECTION=POLITICS

by sorrodos on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:19:17 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

How did early voting break last time?

by who threw da cat on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:21:47 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

An excellent question to which I do not know the answer.

by Chris Bowers on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Chris is pulling those numbers out of a dark place...they aren't on the Texas secy of state site, and though he says their from Swing State, they aren't on the front page. Those match the secy of state numbers.

by texasobserver on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:29:37 PM EST

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

Actually scroll down a bit and there they are.

by LeoinSA on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Texas Primary Results Thread (none / 0)

The Dallas news calls it for Bell...

Name Party Votes Pct
Bell, Chris Dem 91,178 62.81
Gammage, Bob Dem 41,504 28.59
Jafer, Rashad Dem 12,478 8.60

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:31:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Off thread but... (none / 0)

important.

According the morning edition of the Post:

White House Effort to Block Challenge to Ports Deal Collapses

"Appropriations Committee Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) will attach legislation to block the port deal today to a must-pass emergency spending bill funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."

This is quid pro quo. Shut down the NSA investigation and we will withdraw on the DP World deal.

Kind of makes this race a little more important.

by Citizen80203 on Tue Mar 07, 2006 at 09:39:08 PM EST

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