In a series of special elections at the state legislative level, Democrats across the country have exceeded projected Democratic performance. In some cases, these Democratic legislative candidates have performed almost 20 points beyond what was expected. In addition to those victories outlined below, Democrats also won special elections in Mississippi and New Hampshire in 2005. Democrats were successful in all of these contests because they emphasized their connections to their districts and localized the debate."Democratic candidates have surpassed expected Democratic performance in many districts, achieving major upsets in traditionally Republican seats," said Michael Davies, Executive Director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. "State legislatures will be a battleground in 2006."
This includes seats in Texas, Kentucky, Missouri, Virginia, and Minnesota. As Chris already noted, Democrats have opened up a massive generic Congressional lead. What will it take to prove that Democrats are in fact doing really really well? As Chris notes:
The truth is that at this moment, there are two major congressional primaries taking place down in Texas, one on the Republican side, and one on the Democratic side. The Democratic primary, in TX-28, is hotly contested by two candidates (with a decent effort from a third), all of whom are in the district as we speak, running strong campaigns based almost entirely on ideas, and receiving loads of activist support from a variety of outside groups. Further, there isn't even a Republican challenger for the winner of this primary to face in November. Republicans were too scared to even run a candidate here.By contrast, in the Republican primary in TX-22, the leading candidate, Tom DeLay, is spending the day in Washington with lobbyists because he is too afraid to actually go meet the voters in his district.
In this environment, you tell me who is scared of the upcoming elections. You tell me who is seizing an opportunity, and who is hiding under a pile of lobbyist's coats hoping everything will somehow magically get better. Right now, Republicans are too weak to face the voters, but that the Washington Post felt obligated to run a front-page story saying otherwise was the easiest prediction ever.
Not only that, but Democrats have consistently won at the state level throughout 2005 and 2006, in traditionally Republican areas. But since Adam Nagourney doesn't seem to be talking to actual Democrats on the ground, he misses the story and goes for DC groupthink instead.
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