Polls close at 8pm eastern. Use the comments in thread to make predictions on the results. Remember that Morales is in the race too, and should pull at least 5%.
Tonight, you will be able to follow returns live here on MyDD. I have constructed an excel spreadsheet that will allow me to estimate overall results based on results and turnout in specific counties. With this tool, I should be able to produce the best up to date estimates of the overall picture that you can find.
Also, here is the webpage for election results form the Texas Secretary of State. Further, CQ politics will also be following the returns live. Be sure to check in with Swing State Project and Dailykos as well.
Here is a table to use to estimate the overall results based on county returns:
2004 Results
County % of District Cuellar Ciro
Atascosa 6.3% 37% 63%
Bexar 27.6% 20% 80%
Comal 1.9% 28% 72%
Frio 7.6% 46% 54%
Guadalupe 4.4% 27% 73%
Hays 2.3% 36% 64%
LaSalle 4.0% 57% 43%
McMullen 0.2% 60% 40%
Webb 31.2% 84% 15%
Wilson 8.0% 35% 65%
Zapata 6.5% 73% 27%
And here is some excellent, important information on the early voting:
Early voting is a good indicator of the total turn out because normally 65% of the voters in the Democratic primaries cast their vote early. In Webb County, the early vote totals were 2.5% below the early votes cast in the last cycle. The opposite is true in Bexar County, where there is an early vote increase of 7.3% from those cast in 2004. Laredo's decrease is especially noteworthy because its booming population growth allowed for a 4% increase in the number of registered voters for this election, versus the numbers registered in March of 2004.
My analysis is that there will be a decrease in the overall number of voters in Laredo in this cycle, from those that voted in 2004, because a stirring race for county sheriff in 2004 tweaked the turn out in the last cycle. The decrease in early voters in Laredo this cycle, despite a significant increase in registered voters, tends to prove my hypothesis.
Another point worthy of discussion is based on the fact that the 28th CD takes in only a part of Bexar and Webb Counties. This cycle, a race pulling out many voters in Webb County is for an open county commissioner's seat, contested by 6 candidates. Unfortunately for the sell-out Cuellar, this commissioner's district is wholly outside the 28th CD. On the other hand, the race turning out the most voters in Bexar County is for a highly-contested state senate seat between Madla and Uresti (both San Antonio home-boys), in a state senatorial district which overlaps the 28th CD in Bexar County. Accordingly, in my estimation the gap between the 2.5% decrease in early votes in Webb County versus the 7.3% increase in Bexar County, is actually greater when you consider only the voters eligible to vote in the 28th CD race (those totals are not available).
That is about all of the prep work I can give you for now. I suppose one of the great ironies of my writing for MyDD is that I actually hate election nights. Even though this is what most of our writing builds up to, and even though our traffic goes through the roof, usually I find it too stressful and too disappointing for words. I am already growing pretty nervous about tonight. The netroots, the LCV, and the AFL-CIO have a lot on the line. Not to mention that is just really important that we get Cuellar out of this seat. Tonight is a big night.
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