I believe it's Steve Stockman who is the ex-congressman running as the independent.  David Stockman was Reagan's budget director.

My question is, if Delay loses the primary, would Stockman drop out?  That would be the worst of all worlds, politically speaking, for Democrats.  

Obviously, the political end of Delay is good no matter what, but it would be nice to have that seat.  Nice to help regain the House, and nice to have as a trophy to remind all who see it of the dangers of hubris.

I think you have it backwards about newspaper endorsements.  Endorsements follow public opinion, they don't lead it.  If the Houston Chronicle comes out against DeLay, it means DeLay is already screwed.

by about 2-5%. Nick Lampson will run away with the Democratic Nomination.

It's not entirely clear to me whether Democratic chances in the district would be affected by a DeLay win or loss in Tuesday's primary... though traditional wisdom would likely state that the Democrats are better off with a wounded, though not defeated Tom DeLay."

I don't think there's any question what would be better here.  Traditional wisdom in this case is dead-on.

Running against an indicted scumbag who stinks of absolutely everything that's wrong with Washington is clearly preferable to running against a 'fresh faced' Republican like Freeman.

In a Republican district like this one, it's critical to Democratic chances of winning that traditional Republican voters be forced to think about their choices.

If Republicans have an indicted scumbag as their nominee, they're forced to consider whether or not they want to represented by a criminal.  

Any Republican who doesn't have DeLay's baggage allows those voters to fall back into their comfortable habit of simply voting for GOPers, regardless of what Lampson does (For similar reasons, the 2004 results in Hyde's district are completely irrelevant now... with a fossil like Hyde not running, it's an entirely new ballgame and a much tougher race to win).  

Stockman being in the race with DeLay as the GOP candidate improves Lampson's prospects, even if only by a little (which might be all Lampson needs), while a Republican who doesn't carry DeLay's thick, foul stench probably marginalizes Stockman's impact.

So, here's to a bruising, ugly election night that sees Tom DeLay stagger to a narrow primary victory.

Cheers.

I think DeLay is gonna win, I just gotta figure out what odds I can give Nate.

For the record, the Chron hasn't endorsed DeLay in any race since 2000. They non-endorsed in the 2002 primary (he was running against Mike Fjetland, who's in this field now and who ran as an independent in 2004), and endorsed Democrats Tim Riley in 2002 and Richard Morrison in 2004. I'd have bet good money on this, and I'll bet they already have their Lampson endorsement ready for October.

My take, for what it's worth:

I think prospects in this district are better for Democrats if Delay wins his primary but with a weak showing.

I think prospects for Democrats nationwide are better if DeLay loses it. That would show that the voters are taking the "corruption" issue very seriously. If an extremely powerful incumbent Congressman is abandoned by his own constituents, then the effects ripple out to a much larger group of races. Rank and file voters nationwide (in both parties) agree that corruption is terrible, but many privately reserve the opinion that nothing can be done about it. If GOP voters do something about it in TX-22, it encourages voters in many other districts to feel that it's an issue that can and should be a make-it-or-break-it factor in how they vote, because getting rid of corrupt incumbents can in fact be done.

So, either way it can be viewed as a gain, as long as DeLay doesn't win by a landslide.