2006 Election the House of Representatives.

Another list of House races that i belive will be competitive in 2006. Take a look let me know if you think i should add or take one off. (Note: This is only Democatic Targets.)

AZ-05: State Senator Harry Mitchell is the head Democrat in this race and has the best shot of beating J.D Hayworth. J.D Hayworth is in a 54-45 Bush District and was reelected against a nobody Democrat by a 58-39 margin. A internal poll by Mitchell showed the two neck and neck.

AZ-08: State Senator Gabrielle Giffords and fighting Dem. Jeff Latas are running in a a Dem. Primary in there fight to win AZ-08. AZ-08 is a little less Conservative than AZ-05 it voted for Bush 53-46. The Republicans are also having a Primary because Rep. Jim Kolbe is retiring I have no info on the Republican primary but my guess is a Right-Wing Conservative Republican will win it this race is key in winning back the house in 2006.

CA-04: Fighting Dem. Charles Brown is the head Dem. Candidate in this race. CA-04 is a very Republican district but John Doolittle is facing Major Ethics problems and Charles Brown is popular Dems. could win here the district voted 61-37 for Bush.

CA-11: Rep. Richard Pombo like Doolittle has his own corruption to deal with but this district is more Democratic than the 4th. It voted 54-45 for Bush and it looks like Dem. Steve Filson is the head candidate to take on Rep. Pombo.

CA-50: Francine Busby is hoping to win the special election here on April 10th she has to win 50.1% of the vote the last poll i saw had her at 45% She is getting closer with every poll that comes out. The district voted 55-45 for Bush.

CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave won reelection with only 51% last time against a opponent who she outspent almost 3 to 1 This Time Stan Matsunaka is not running. The head Dem. Candidate is State House member Angie Paccionie she has promised to give Musgrave a run for her money. The district voted 58-41 for Bush.

CO-07: Rep. Bob Beauprez is running for Governor and there are a lot of Dems. and Reps. running to replace him. Dems. should have a good shot here if the Republicans put forward a Right-winger. Three Dems. are running oh and the district voted 51-48 for Kerry.

CT-02: Joe Courtney is the Head Democrat in the race to unseat current Republican Rep. Rob Simmions. Courtney was the 2002 nominee and didn't do to well (54-46) but that was a year when the Presidents approval was above 50. This race is very important in taking back the house. The district voted 54-44 for Kerry.

CT-04: Diane Farrell the 2004 Dem. Nominee is running again against Rep. Chris Shays. In 2004 Shays won by a slight margin (52-48) Diane quickly announced her intention to run again and is planning to make this race one of the most competitive. (Reminds me a bit of a reverse IN-09) The district voted 52-46 for Kerry.

CT-05: State Senator Chris Murphy is leading the Democrats in there effort to defeat Nancy Jhonson. In 2004 a nobody Dem. ran and lost by a 60-38 margin. The district is 49-49 Kerry.

FL-13: Kathrine Harris is running for the Senate (for now) which makes FL-13 a open field for both sides. Republicans are favored in this district but it is open and Dems. have a shot. Three Dems. are running. The District voted 56-43 for Bush.

FL-22: State Senator Ron Klein is the head Democratic Candidate to take on Rep. Clay Shaw in November. Clay Shaw has been Reelected by strong margins but only against weak Democratic opposition. Ron Klein is a strong candidate and Shaw has faced trouble for is Yes vote on the Medicare/RX bill. The district voted 52-48 for Kerry.

IL-06: Tammy Duckworth won the primary and is now off to challenge State Sen. Pete Roskam to become the Congresswoman of IL-06. This race is going to be close while the district does lean R the Polls all show massive trend towards Democrats Nationwide this is the kind of district that needs to be changed to win the house. The district voted 53-47 for Bush.

IL-11: Rep. Jerry Weller is in trouble. Democrat Jhon Pavitch is bringing in a good amount of money and is promiseing to give Weller a run for his money. Weller got a lot of press when he married the Daughter of Jose Efrain Rios Montt who seized power in Guatemala after a Military Coup in 1982. Than coup resulted in large revolt than lead to thousands of deaths. Weller is not a great Congressman to say the least and the district is winnable. The district voted 53-46 for Bush.

IN-02: Democrats are running Joe Donnelly who ran in 2004 and lost in 2004 by a 54-45 margin running ahead of Kerry in the district. Joe has said that he is running again and than he will run a better campaign. Rep. Chris Chocola is the Republican and the district voted 56-43 for Bush.

IN-08: John Hostettler is a vulnerable incumbent. in 2004 Hostettler who is a horrible fundraiser won by a weak 53-45 margin against a nobody Dem. This time Democrats are running Brad Ellsworth sheriff of Evansville. The district voted 62-38 Bush.

IN-09: Fmr. Rep. Baron Hill is running to get his seat back from Rep. Mike Sodrel. Baron hill lost by a very small margin (49-49) mainly due to Bush cotails in the district but Dems. have the edge this time and Sodrel is in trouble we have a very strong shot here and we need to win this district to take back the house.

IA-01: Iowas first District is open and three Democrats are running. This is a lean D district Nussle is leaveing to run for Governor and Democrats should win this district. The district voted 53-46 for Kerry.

KY-03: Rep. Anne Northup is liked by conservatives because of her very Right-wing record. Democrats have tried time and time again and failed to overthrow her. This time Fighting Dem. Andrew Horne is leading the Dems. in the effort of getting rid of her. With distaste with Bush all over the country and the fact that the district voted for Kerry that could give the edge to Horne. The district voted 51-49 for Kerry.

KY-04: Fmr. Rep. Ken Lucas is running to get his seat back from Rep. Geroff Davis. Davis won in 2004 against Nick Clonney after Lucas retired. In 2002 Lucas beat Davis 51-48 in the Republican year of 2002. Lucas beat Davis once he can do it again. The district voted 63-36 for Bush.

MN-01: I have heard that MN-01 is going to be competitve this year. Fighting Dem. Tim Walz is leading the Democrats here. Rep. Gil Gutknecht was reelected by a strong margin but the district is marginal and Democrats will have a strong shot here. The district is 51-47 Bush.

MN-06: Mark Kennedy is retiring and that could make this district competitive. Democrats Patty Wetterling and Elwyn Tinklenberg are running in a primary for the Dem. Nomination in MN-06. My guess is Wetterling would have the better shot since she did better than Kerry while challengeing a Incumbent and she was outspent because of Kennedys connections. The district voted 57-42 Kennedy won in 04 by a 54-46 margin.

NJ-07: Mike Ferguson is the main target in NJ for house pickups. Assembly woman Linda Stender is the head Dem. Candidate. Ferguson isn't that popular since the whole Election fine and everything. From what i have gathered Ferguson is beatable. The district is 53-47 Bush.

NM-01: Heather Wilson is always a target she always manages to get off somehow. Attorney General Patsy Madrid is the leading Dem. in the race and she might just be the person that finally beats Wilson. The District voted 51-48 for Kerry.

NY-24: This now an open seat and both Democrats and Republicans have a competitive primary. 3 Democrats are running right now i believe a Republican Assemblyman is the head candidate for the Republicans forgot his name. The district voted 53-47 for Bush.

NY-29: Rep. Randy Khul is not a safe Rep. to say the least. Khul known well for threatening to kill his wife with two shotguns and for his extreme right wing stances is vulnerable this year. Democrats are Running Eric Massa a popular Fighting Dem. this race is going to be competitive Khul won with only 51% of the vote last time. The district voted 56-42 for Bush.

NC-08: Rep. Robin Hayes is a known as the flip-floper in NC-08. Hayes changed his vote on CAFTA at the last minute due to Republican leaders. CAFTA has put many worker in NC-08 which has made him very unpopular 3 Democrats are running. The district voted 54-45 for Bush.

NC-11: Rep. Charles Taylor underpeformed Bush in 2004 winning 55-45 agenst a weak Dem. In 2006 the Dems. are running fmr. NFL quaterback Heath Shuler. The district voted 57-43 Bush.

OH-01: Rep. Steve Chabot is going up against Cincinnati councilman Jhon Cranley is a popular guy and in 2000 at 26 he lost to Chabot 53-46 he is now ready for a second try. The district voted 51-49 for Bush.

OH-02: Primaries on both Side here. Incumbent Jean Schmidt is probibly the most unpopular person in the House of Representatives right now. Thor Jacobs is leading the pack of Democrats running in the primary while Jean Schmidt is doing okay not great agenst McEwen. The district is 64-36 Bush.

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy is running against Rep. Deborah Pryce. Kilroy the Dem. in the race released a Internal poll which showed the race almost tied 44-43 Pryce. Pryce has gotten off without though challenges in the last few elections this time she will have to fight for her reelection. The district voted 50-50 for Bush.

OH-18: Rep. Bob Ney is corrupt and could be the ticket to electing a Democrat in this district. There is a large Democratic Priamry in this district. The district voted 57-43 Bush.

PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach has struggled each year to win. In both 2002 and 2004 he won by a weak 51-49 margin. Democrats are running 04 nominee Lois Murphy in a year when Dems. are favored on the Generic ballot by double digits this district should go Blue. The District voted 51-48 for Kerry.

PA-08: Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick managed to sneak into congress in 2004 against a weak Dem. nominee. Democrats are running two candidates Fighting Dem. Patrick Murphy and Former bucks county commisoner Andy Warren. I am hopeing Patrick Murphy wins the primary he has the best shot and he is a real Democrat. This district is winnable. The district voted 51-48 for Kerry.

TX-22: Fmr. Rep. Nick Lampson won the Democraitc Nomination unopposed and is going up against Rep. Tom Delay who had to fight for his nomination. Tom Delay is one of the most corrupt Republicans in the house he needs to be defeated. In 2004 before most of Delays corruption came out a weak Dem. challenger held Delay to 55% we can win here! The district voted 64-36 for Kerry.

VA-02: Rep. Thelma Drake is a new member of the house and also a vulnerable member. Drake is going up against Phil Kellam is the commissioner of revenue of Virginia Beach. He was reelected in 2001 and 2005 by a fine margin and is now running for VA-02. Kellam is from a well respected political family and is popular he has a shot here. The district voted 58-42 for Bush.

WA-08: Rep. Dave Reichert was elected by a slim 52-47 margin and is vulnerable in 2006. Darcy Burner is the Democrat running here she is a Former Executive of a Microsoft executive is eyeing this seat. The district voted 51-48 Kerry.

WI-08: Rep. Mark Green is running for Governor this open seat is competitve. Democrats have 3 people running in the primary. I have no idea on the Republicans in the race.


Poll
Democrats will
lose House seats in 2006
Have no Net gain or loss.
Democrats will gain 1-5 seats.
Democrats will gain 6-10 seats
Democrats will gain 11-15 seats.
Democrats will win the Majority.

Votes: 31
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: 2006 Election the House of Representatives. (none / 0)

Well Anne Northrup and Heather Wilson are always touted as "vulnerable" against "highly touted" Democratic challnegers. However, on election night, these "high touted challengers" almost always manage to come up short by 1-5% as the votes turn in.

As for CO-4, if Paccione is to win, she is going to need to fare well in the rural precincts of the district. While she may be able to get a lead out of the district's cities--Longmont, Fort Collins, Fort Morgan, Greeley, Sterling, and Loveland--she is going to have to prevent Musgrave from dominating the district's rural counties. For if Musgrave can poll 3-1 margins in the Eastern Plains, it will wipe out any lead Paccione may have out of the cities.

Some of the most Republican counties in Colorado are on the Eastern Plains, which are in CO-4. These counties vote more like Kansas and Nebraska than Colorado. Bush polled more than 70% in most of these counties. In one or two of these counties he polled even more than 80%. Counties like Kiowa, Kit Carson, Bent, Baca, Prowers, Otero, Yuma, Washington, Sedgwick, and Phillips, for example, are HEAVILY Republican. Paccione will need to win approximately maybe 35-40% of the vote there if she wants to win.

So if Paccione is to be serious she is really going to have to work out the district's rural areas. Otherwise, like Matsunaka, she will probably only get 40-45% of the vote.


by jiacinto on Fri Mar 31, 2006 at 05:48:33 PM EST

Re: 2006 Election the House of Representatives. (none / 0)

Eventhough, some analyst say that there will be a Dem take over in the House.  Far too many are saying that they won't.  There is no guarentee in the world of politics, especially since 1994 the Republicans have dominated politics ever since.  Unless there is strong tidal wave or we take the Senate, I don't see us taking back the House.  But we can win up to 10 seats, Cook and Sabato are predicting.  It would be nice to have control of the House, but people are still afraid to entrust the Dem with the lower chamber, because that is the branch of gov't that deals with the purse strings, and they don't want their taxes raised.  The Dems will come close, but come short, but they could make it interesting.  As we can see, when you have the opposite party in the WH, the check on the president doesn't appear to be having the same influence in politics as it has before, 1998 and 2002 proved to us this.  I see a 6-10 Democratic pickup in CA, CT, IL, IA, MN, NM, PA, and TX.


by mleflo2 on Mon Apr 03, 2006 at 08:56:10 AM EST

Re: 2006 Election the House of Representatives. (none / 0)

Too many people are quick to predict a Democratic majority and people thought this in 2000 and it didn't happen. There is no guarentee and right now, the Dems don't have the advantage.


by mleflo2 on Mon Apr 03, 2006 at 08:58:54 AM EST


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