Back in November, I began wondering how many Republicans would end up not running for reelection to the House of Representatives this year. Would it just be a dozen, fewer than the number of seats the Democrats would need to retake the House, or would it be significantly more, including districts in which Democrats have a real shot at stealing the seat?

In an article for The Hill this week, Peter Savodnik notes chatter than as many as "10 to 15 more Republicans could announce in the coming months that they are stepping down." On top of the 16 open seats currently held by Republicans (including the unfilled seat vacated by Randy "Duke" Cunningham), another 10 or more retirements could make the Republicans' job of maintaining control of the House nearly impossible, as open seats tend to be significantly more difficult to defend than ones in which a non-indicted incumbent is running.

Discussion now surrounds at least two Republican Congressmen who have yet to announce their intention to run for another term this November. This week, The Hill's Bob Cusack reports that insiders are now predicting that Bill Thomas, whose central California district gave President Bush 68 percent of the vote in 2004, will announce his retirement next week.

Some sources said they expect the Ways and Means Committee chairman to announce shortly that he will not seek reelection in November.

Perhaps more noteworthy are the rumors surrounding the possible retirement of Sherwood Boehlert, who represents an upstate New York congressional district that favored George W. Bush with only 52 percent of the vote in 2004 -- a district that would be tough for Republicans to hold in such an anti-GOP year like 2006 without the advantage of incumbency. Roll Call's Josh Kurtz has the story (sorry, subscription required).

Republicans on Capitol Hill and in New York are increasingly convinced that Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.) will announce his retirement sometime in March.

The Science Committee chairman has promised his Congressional colleagues a decision by the middle of the month, and the March 20 recess week is seen as a logical time for him to disclose his plans back home.

Now with news that GOP Rep. John Sweeney, who also represents a competitive New York district, is suffering from "potentially life threatening" blood-pressure issues, in addition to other Beltway gossip, it seems that Savodnik's reporting might be sound. If this is indeed the case, the Democrats' chances of retaking the House for the first time in a dozen years would greatly increase. As Chris wrote earlier this week, "Of course, not only would fifteen more Republican retirements be a sign of a coming Democratic wave, but those retirements would actually fuel the wave substantially.">