Filling house races - The state of play

From the diaries--Chris

Rex Freedom has been busy so it's been a while since the `50 State Page' http://www.barrywelsh.org/fiftystate/ind ex.html has been updated.

According to those fine folks there are 38 races left to fill. The up to date number is lower than that and is below the fold.....

First the bad news -

1)    Diane Lee Lawrence has withdrawn in FL 25 - http://election.dos.state.fl.us/cgi-bin/ CandHtml.exe?account=42057&elecid=20 061107-GEN which means we have 4 vacancies in Florida in GOP held districts and 3 Dem incumbents yet to file. The GOP held districts with no confirmed Dem are the 7th, 12th and 14th and 25th. Oh yeh and can someone remind Brown to file in the 3rd please, and Wexler in the 19th, and Wasserman Schultz in the 20th. The 7th is supposed to have fighting Dem John Chagnon filing but he is nowhere to be seen in the media or on the internet.

There is still time for 4 candidates to be found in Florida as filing doesn't close until May 12th.

2)    There are 5 (not 6) districts where there won't be a Dem candidate on the ballot in November.
They are:
CA 42 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/ca42_109.pdf
MS 3 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/MS03_109.pdf
PA 9 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/PA09_109.pdf
PA 15 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/PA15_109.pdf
TX 11 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/TX11_109.pdf

There was some speculation on the lefty blogosphere about whether the Dems in PA could nominate candidates (after the close of filings) in the 2 outstanding districts in PA by way of a nominating convention a la Iowa.
I did try and email the Democrat Party Organisation in every County in the 9th and 15th and indeed tried to email the PA Democrats and every House Democrat in the PA Congressional delegation and got not one response.    Yep not one.

So I assuming that the candidate list in PA is set unless I hear differently.

Now the good news -

By the standards required by Rex and the gang we have 3 more confirmed candidates as follows:

IA 2 - DAVE LOEBSACK
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/21/ 7124/31251
http://www.loebsackforcongress.org/

SC 2 - MICHAEL ELLISOR
http://www.scdp.org/blog.php

VA 7 - MARTIN DUDZIAK
http://www.votemartin.org/

2 Active websites and a candidate filing with the SC Dems. (You file with the party and not the elections board in SC.)

However we have another 8 candidates who have recently received media coverage about their candidacy or impending candidacy.

AL 1 - VIVIAN BECKERLE
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/3/ 15/22325/8238/23#23
http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/in dex.ssf?/base/news/1142936265260370.xml& amp;coll=3

AR 3 - WOODROW ANDERSON
http://www.arkdems.org/Weblogs/WeblogIte mList.aspx?WeblogID=b55252d9-2228-4511-b 3df-37ffcbbba803
http://www.arktimes.com/Articles/Article Viewer.aspx?ArticleID=0123680a-13c9-4838 -bdf5-5436720248bb
http://www.nwanews.com/adg/News/149536/
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2006 /03/23/News/335160.html

The formal launch of his campaign will be on Thursday.

MI 3 - JIM RINCK
http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index. ssf?/base/news-28/1143270956155930.xml&a mp;coll=6

MI 6 - KIM CLARK
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/02/mi_6_f ormula_for_upsetting_upt.html

I would prefer a bit more evidence here but nonetheless.

NY 3 - DAVID DENENBERG
http://www.newsday.com/news/columnists/n y-lipols064616079feb06,0,4178278.column? coll=ny-rightrail-columnist
http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_ joel_pes_060323_dave_denenberg_for_c.htm

http://kingwatch.blogspot.com/
http://www.davedenenberg.com/

NY 13 - STEVE HARRISON
http://www.silive.com/news/advance/index .ssf?/base/news/1138804283230280.xml& ;coll=1
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/2/1/2 31859/2371
http://ny13.blogspot.com/

Brooklyn Councilman Bill De Blasio is also considering running and the media mentions of him refer to Harrison already being in the race.
http://www.silive.com/news/advance/index .ssf?/base/news/1142346649277480.xml& ;coll=1

NY 26 - JACK DAVIS
http://www.amhersttimes.com/index.php?op tion=com_content&task=view&id=10 60&Itemid=27

http://www.jackdavis.org/index.asp

The formal launch of his campaign will be on Thursday.

WA 5 - PETER GOLDMARK
http://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2006 /03/goldmark-will-challenge-rep-mcmorris .html
http://www.evergreenpolitics.com/ep/2006 /03/democrats_runni.html
http://www.thestranger.com/blog/archives /2006/03/12-18.php#a004857
http://159.54.227.3/apps/pbcs.dll/articl e?AID=/20060318/NEWS06/60318027

Yes he has changed his mind again.

This of course leaves 29 districts to fill. Only 29! Of course 5 of these will remain unopposed as filing has closed in those states.
So of course here are the 24 still to be filled districts:-

AL 2 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/AL02_109.pdf
AL 3 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/AL03_109.pdf
AL 4 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/AL04_109.pdf
AL 6 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/AL06_109.pdf

AZ 6 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/AZ06_109.pdf

FL 7 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/FL07_109.pdf
FL 12 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/FL12_109.pdf
FL 14 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/FL14_109.pdf
FL 25 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/FL25_109.pdf

GA 9 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/GA09_109.pdf
GA 10 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/GA10_109.pdf
GA 11 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/GA11_109.pdf

LA 4 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/LA04_109.pdf
LA 5 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/LA05_109.pdf
LA 6 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/LA06_109.pdf
LA 7 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/LA07_109.pdf

MN 3 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/MN03_109.pdf

NJ 2 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/NJ02_109.pdf
NJ 4 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/NJ04_109.pdf

OK 1 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/OK01_109.pdf
OK 4 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/OK04_109.pdf

TN 2 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/TN02_109.pdf

VA 4 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/VA04_109.pdf
VA 6 - http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/image s/pdf/congdist/VA06_109.pdf

BTW I have heard rumours of candidates in 4 of the above districts but only Chagnon in FL 7 is worthy of mention as the others are older rumours who need to get active before I am convinced they are running.

Even a quick glance through the 24 unopposed races should demonstrate 2 things. Most of these districts are in the south and most are in states with more than 1 unopposed race.

I will leave it others to interpret the significance of that.

Lastly but not least
This list of deadlines - http://www.barrywelsh.org/fiftystate/dea dlines.htm - which is accurate if not up to date is informative. With the addition of the candidates listed in this diary the next filing deadline with an unopposed district is April 6 - Tennessee - with only TN 2 awaiting a candidate. This is followed by Alabama on April 7 with 4 vacancies, New Jersey on April 10 with 2 vacancies, Virginia on April 14 with 2 vacancies And Georgia on April 28 with 3 vacancies.


Poll
How many Repub Districts will not have Democratic opponents in 2006?
0 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26+

Votes: 114
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


WASSUP (none / 0)

DO YOU HAVE ANY RUMOURS, UPDATES OR GOSSIP THAT MAY HELP FILL THE UNOPPOSED RACES?


by BENAWU on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:06:57 AM EST

Re: Filling house races - The state of play (none / 0)

Will Hunter LUNDY run against Charles BOUSTANY in LA-07.  If LUNDY decides to run, this seat will automatically become competitive.

Where is Hunter LUNDY?


by illinois062006 on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 08:51:42 AM EST

Hunter LUNDY information (none / 0)

http://politicalgraveyard.com/bio/lund-l uster.html

http://www.lundydavis.com/html/attorneys /hunter_w_lundy.html

Ran for Congress in 1996 as a Democrat against Chris John (D).  The results of the run-off were:

John (D): 52%

Lundy (D): 48%

If John endorsed Lundy against Boustany in 2006, Boustany is guaranteed to lose.

LUNDY must enter this race.

But according to the following site, LUNDY is the presumptive Democratic challenger:

http://www.betterimmigration.com/candida tes/2006/cand06_la7.html

Why do they list Lundy as a candidate?

And here are some issue positions for Lundy from 1996:

http://www-cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/ candidates/election.guide/text/LA07.shtm l


by illinois062006 on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 09:06:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hunter LUNDY information (none / 0)

he was one of the rumours that I heard. Like Roland Low in MN 3 I want more evidence.


by BENAWU on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 10:31:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Filling house races - The state of play (none / 0)

Apparently he told someone in the press he's thinking of running. It was in the newspaper last year (do a google search on his name and congress).


by adamterando on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NJ-04: From BlueJersey.net (none / 0)

With apologies to Juan Melli, who I'm stealing from whole hog here.

We're hearing that there is a candidate from the 4th district hailing from Ocean County that is willing to commit "significant" personal resources to challenge Congressman Chris Smith.

This would be a major change whereas in recent years Democrats put up only a nominal fight in the 4th. The candidate may be unveiled as early as Saturday at the Mercer County Convention.

We'll know more this weekend.


by Scott Shields on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 11:00:32 AM EST

Re: NJ-04: From BlueJersey.net (none / 0)

Thanks nice pick up.


by BENAWU on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:25:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NY13 (none / 0)

Harrison now has a website up
harrison06.com

You can follow the race at NY13


by jonahinnyc on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 11:47:43 AM EST

Re: NY13 (none / 0)

kewl thanks


by BENAWU on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:26:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NJ-4 from Blue New Jersey (none / 0)

We're hearing that there is a candidate from the 4th district hailing from Ocean County that is willing to commit "significant" personal resources to challenge Congressman Chris Smith.


by doughnutman on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 12:09:51 PM EST

Re: NJ-4 from Blue New Jersey (none / 0)

whoops didn't see that someone else posted this.


by doughnutman on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 12:10:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NJ-4 from Blue New Jersey (none / 0)

Thanks anyway good tip.


by BENAWU on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Also (none / 0)

Rumor has it that NJ-2 will be filled soon.


by dwbh on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:49:45 PM EST

Re: Also (none / 0)

Thanks.
Van Drew has been thinking about it for a few weeks now.

Wish he would hurry up and make his mind up.


by BENAWU on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 02:57:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Filling house races (none / 0)

During the 2004 elections, Robert David Sullivan mapped America into ten regions in an article he called "Beyond Red & Blue".  Here's where the still-unopposed districts are, by region, from bluest regions to reddest:

Upper coasts (most Democratic): No unopposed Republicans

Atlantic Corridor: Three (NJ 2&4, PA 15).  The two iffy NY metro districts are here too.  For a solid blue region, it's faring more disappointingly than anywhere outside the South, which could indicate lack of organization, or simply gerrymandering into districts with concentrated Republicans.  The thing is, all of these districts are at least potentially competitive.

Great Lakes: No unopposed Republicans.

El Norte: Two (CA-42 and FL-25).  A Cuban district and a gerrymandered Orange County district on opposite sides of the country.  Hard to detect a trend there.

Mississippi River: One (MN-3).  We're gaining ground in the Midwest.

Farm Belt: No unopposed Republicans.  Again, good job in the midwest.

Sagebrush: Two (AZ-6 and TX-11).

Southern Lowlands: Six (VA-4, FL-7, AL-3, MS-3, LA-5&6).  The cotton belt and South Atlantic Coast.

Appalachia: Eight (PA-9, VA-6, TN-2, GA-9,10&11, AL-4&6)

"Southern Comfort" (the reddest): Seven (FL-12&14, AL-2, LA-4&7, OK-1&4).


by admiralnaismith on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 05:17:49 PM EST

Re: Filling house races - The state of play (none / 0)

OK 4 is one of those seats where even a modest challenge will pay off in a huge diversion of funds.  The key is that Tom Cole, the incumbent, is a former campaign consultant, probably the best the Repubs had in Oklahoma and his work went beyond Oklahoma.  He still raises large amounts of contributions and uses them to spread his influence very widely, in state and nationally.

If there is a "fighting Dem" type in the 4th, please start encouraging him.  The district has Fort Sill and Tinker AFB, Ardmore and Ada are traditionally leaning Democratic, the Chickasaw tribe is very angry at the Repubs and Midwest City just had a GM plant closure. A Democrat in this district should have a floor of around 40% and with some gasoline and shoe leather make it at least competitive enough to draw off $10 for every one the Democrats commit.


by Dan on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 05:55:56 PM EST

PA-15 (none / 0)

My district, and I'm pretty annoyed the Dems haven't fielded a proper candidate. Late last year I was contacted by somebody pretty obscure (forget his name) who said he was running for the Democratic nomination for PA-15. His candidacy seemed hopeless, but I haven't heard that he dropped out. Any info on that?

I'd like to work for a challenger to Dent, who has cast some pretty deplorable votes in his two years in office. Hell, I'd run against him if the Dems would nominate me. There's a lot of ammunition to use, particularly his lackadaisical responses to complaints and queries from voters.


by smintheus on Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 06:02:55 PM EST

Re: PA-15 (none / 0)

As I recall there were two candidates expected to file Bob Dodge and Justin Behrens.

Dunno what happened but neither of them filed.

You might want to confirm with your dem county head that you can't hold a nominating convention to fill the race after filings close.


by BENAWU on Thu Mar 30, 2006 at 01:51:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA-15 (none / 0)

Good idea...though just getting the Lehigh County Democratic office to respond to a query is like pulling teeth, in my experience. Still, it will be pathetic if Dent is not made to defend his record.


by smintheus on Thu Mar 30, 2006 at 05:33:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MN-03 (none / 0)

http://wendywilde.com/

Former Air America Minnesota talk show host Wendy Wilde is exploring the possibility of challenging Jim Ramstad in Minnesota's 3rd district.

Wendy covered both national and Minnesota topics on her radio show. She should be well known to CD3 Dem activists.

I have no clue if people are warming up to the idea or oppose it.


by Demrock6 on Tue Apr 04, 2006 at 05:26:23 PM EST


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