Anyone can volunteer for Francine Busby, no matter where you live. Send an email to volunteer@busbyforcongress.com in order to phone bank for Francine--Chris
Survey USA has a new poll on the April 11th CA-50 special election to replace convicted felon and Republican Duke Cunningham. As I am sue you already know, the main Democrat in the race is ,
Francine Busby (
volunteer,
contribute). Even though this is a red district with only 43.4% Democratic performance, it is suddenly looking possible that Francine can win this thing without a run-off:
800 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 3/25/06 - 3/27/06. Of them, 404 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Primary voters. Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5%
Busby: 45%
Others: 52%
Unsure: 3%
Francine is now within the margin of error for winning the race without a special election. None of her rivals tops 14%, so even without a run-off she is clearly the favorite to win this thing if there is a run-off on June 6th.
I know we are all dying for a victory, so let's bring this one home. I would love to win this thing without the need for a run-off.
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Update:
Howard Kaloogian, who was second behind Francine Busby in today's Survey USA poll with 14%,
has been caught in the act of fabricating the location of a photograph on his website. He claimed,
on his website, that he took the photo in Baghdad. Turns out that the photo is was taken in suburban Turkey. It is good to see that Republicans have lined up candidates with high ethical standards in order to replace a convicted felon. And to think that this guy probably accuses the media of distorting the situation in Iraq.
Update 2:
Kos writes that "It's important to temper this poll with the fact that Busby's
own internal numbers don't show the numbers that high (she pegs her support at 39 percent)." That is not entirely true. The real difference between Busby's support in this Survey USA poll and previous polls on the race can be found in the number of "undecided" voters in each poll. For example, in her internal numbers. Lake puts Busby at 39%, but with 19% of voters undecided. It certainly isn't difficult to imagine that if undecideds were pushed in the Lake poll, that Busby would rise into the mid-40's. Survey USA clearly pushed undecideds, which almost certainly accounts for her seemingly high 45%. The truth is that right now Busby is probably in the mid-forties when undecideds are pushed. However, turnout models for special elections are notoriously difficult to predict, and thus it is possible that none of this polling is very accurate.
