Regardless of questions about Gallup's polling methodology and possible partisan slant, one thing they certainly have going for them is a wealth of data collected over the years to help provide historical context to the current political environment.

In recent weeks, Republicans have been throwing out every possible argument claiming that they are not really in danger of losing control of the House of Representatives this fall. The Democrats don't have any ideas, they claim, despite the fact that the GOP itself can't even come close to creating a positive vision of their own this year. There aren't enough open seats this year, Republicans say, and the Democrats can't possibly knock off enough GOP incumbents to make up their deficit in the chamber, disregarding the fact that there are actually a significant number of GOP open seats -- in competitive districts, no loss. Finally, things aren't so bad, GOP spinmeisters promise. The problem is, Gallup knows they're wrong and has the historical data to prove it.

A recent Gallup Poll, conducted March 13-16, 2006, finds just 27% of Americans approving (and 65% disapproving) of the way Congress is handling its job. Congress' approval rating has been below 30% since October 2005, and the current rating marks the continuation of a slow descent from record-high congressional approval after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

In fact, the recent ratings of Congress are the worst Gallup has measured in more than a decade. An Oct. 22-25, 1994, Gallup Poll shows 23% of Americans approving of Congress just before a Republican landslide in that year's elections. The lowest approval ratings Gallup has recorded for Congress were 18% in March 1992 and 19% in June 1979.

Not only do the folks at Gallup show that the situation is indeed bad for Republicans by historical standards, they also show evidence of a fairly strong relationship between Congressional approval ratings and election results during midterm elections.

During recent midterm election years, low congressional approval ratings have been associated with greater shifts in the partisan composition of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the five elections since 1974 in which Congress' approval rating was below 40%, the average net change in U.S. House seats from one party to the other was 29. In the three midterm elections in which congressional approval ratings were above 40%, the average change was five seats. [emphasis added]

After nearly 12 years, the American people have seen enough of the Republican House to draw a fairly strong conclusion: they don't like the way the GOP runs things up on Capitol Hill. And if the historical trends prove true this fall -- if the Democrats pick up the average of 29 seats, or even only half of that number -- the United States House of Representatives will be back in Democratic hands come January.