The retirements in the United States House keep on coming these days, with two retirements this week alone and predictions of more to come. What does it all mean, particularly in terms of the Democrats' chances of retaking the chamber this fall?
Currently, there are 17 House seats currently held by Republicans in which the incumbent is not seeking reelection this fall, plus the seat vacated by Randy "Duke" Cunningham last year (.pdf link), so the number of open GOP districts is actually 20 percent larger than the Republican margin in the House. (If each open seat switched hands -- which is highly unlikely, but a theoretical possibility -- Nancy Pelosi would be Speaker.) Compare this to the 28 open seats the Democrats had to defend in 1994, the last election in which control of the House switched hands. Going into that November, Democrats could have afforded to lose 40 seats while still maintaining control of the chamber, meaning that winning all 28 open districts would have taken the GOP less that 70 percent of the way towards a Gingrich Speakership. True, this year's Democrats would be aided by more retirements; nevertheless, there are an ample number of open seats to facilitate the possibility of Democratic control of the House in the 110th Congress. But this is not all.
As noted in the first paragraph, two seats became open this past week, one currently controlled by the Republicans, one currently controlled by the Democrats. The differences between these two districts are highly informative.
On Friday, Republican Congressman Sherry Boehlert announced that he would not seek another term in his competitive upstate New York district. In 2004, George W. Bush carried New York's 24th district with about 53 percent of the vote, which translates to a PVI of R+1 (on average, the district votes one percentage point more Republican than the nation as a whole). This joins Arizona's 8th CD (R+1), Colorado's 7th CD (D+2), and Iowa's 1st CD (D+5) in the list of Republican open seats in which the Republican advantage is negligable or there is actually a Democratic tilt. What's more, in six additional Republican open districts, the GOP advantage is not sufficient to make the race uncompetitive: California's 50th CD (R+5), Florida's 9th (R+4) and 13th (R+4) CDs, Illinois' 6th CD (R+3), Minnesota's 6th CD (R+5), and Wisconsin's 8th CD (R+5). If the Democrats are able to sweep these ten races -- not probable, but certainly possible if the winds are right -- they will already be two-thirds of the way to retaking the House.
The other House retirement announcement came today out of Minneapolis, as long time Democratic Rep. Martin Olav Sabo announced that he would not seek another term. Minnesota's 5th CD is quite different from New York's 24th district; in 2004, President Bush received only 28 percent of the vote, which corresponds to a PVI of D+21. Indeed, almost every one of the Democrats other nine open seats is similarly non-competitive, with only a single district posting a PVI of less than D+5: Ohio's 6th CD (D+0). So while there are a healthy number of open districts the Dems can pick off from the GOP this fall, there is only one open Democratic district in which the Republicans have a genuine shot.
Considering that the Cook Political Report (.pdf) currently rates seven Republican districts in which the incumbent is running for reelection "tossups," and another nine such seats as merely "leans Republicans," the situation today is such that there is a clear path to Democratic control of the United States House of Representatives -- even leaving aside the Democrats' impressive generic congressional ballot leads.
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