MyDD :: NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL RACES 2006

NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL RACES 2006 - VERY SPOILT FOR CHOICE

by BENAWU, Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 04:29:43 PM EST

Before Christmas I wrote a diary trying to crystal ball gaze the congressional races in New York. Now that Boehlert has announced his retirement I think it is a good time to revisit New York to assess Dem chances of picking up some Repub districts.

Below the fold.............

The Democrats hold 20/29 districts and should hold all 20 this year. IMHO no matter the outcome this year NY Dems will be ruing 2006 as a missed opportunity. After all how often can the perfect storm exist of an unpopular Repub President AND Dem candidates for US Senate and NY Gov who will more than likely both top 60% of the vote. In a perfect election cycle the Dems could actually win more than half of these races but 2006 won't be that election though it should be. In looking at the NY house races remember this: Bush only got more than 55% of the vote in 2004 in 2 districts. 2!

My take on the 9 Repub held CD's is as follows:

NY 3
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT PETE KING - 7TH TERM
2004 - KING RECEIVED 63% OF VOTE
- BUSH RECEIVED 51.6% OF VOTE, KERRY 46.94%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP +66802
11/05 - GOP +63431

DISTRICT BLOG: http://kingwatch.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES: David Denenberg??? - Nassau County Legislator - http://www.davedenenberg.com/

This race is in the increasing Dem friendly Suffolk and Nassau counties. This is the last of the GOP districts on Long Island that they still hold. The 1st, 2nd, and 4th have all been won off them by Dems since 1996. This is a district that the Dems will probably win when King retires but with a good candidate it was winnable this year. Unfortunately the first two choices as candidates State Rep Davis Bishop and Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias have both declined leaving Denenberg as a far from ideal 3rd choice.

Why far from ideal well read this article for more: http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/...
(He pled guilty to an election misdemeanor last year.)

Like most Kossacks I was hoping Suozzi would stay out of the Gubernatorial race and opt instead for the 3rd but alas it was not to be.

This race will go down as a real missed opportunity IMHO.

NY 13
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT VITO FOSSELLA - 5TH TERM
2004 - FOSSELLA RECEIVED 59% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 54.61% OF VOTE, KERRY 44.50%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - DEM! +61200
11/05 - DEM! +59799

DISTRICT BLOGS: http://ny13.blogspot.com/
http://vetovito.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES:
This district was held by Democrats pre-Fossella and will probably flip back when he moves on (particularly with that voter reg. advantage) but Staten Island is the one reliable bit of NYC left for the GOP.

Life just got very interesting in NY 13. Presumptive Dem candidate Steve Harrison who has no website or recent press mentions has a primary rival. NYC Councilman Bill De Blasio is considering the race. Apparently he is being supported by the DCCC. Whilst the DCCC's support for candidates is often controversial this is not one of those occasions (fortunately).

IMHO this race is THE missed opportunity for the NY Dems in this cycle. There are more registered Des than Repubs in this district despite the fact that they voted for Bush over Kerry. In a state where Dems have become quite adept at winning Repub Districts this is a shocking missed opportunity. If there weren't other more competitive house races in NY then the 13th might be top tier but now it won't, and that is shameful I reckon.

NY 19
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT SUE KELLY 6TH TERM
2004 - KELLY GOT 67% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 53.43% OF VOTE, KERRY 45.06%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 18411
11/05 - GOP + 16322

DISTRICT BLOG: http://take19.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES: 5 candidates so far - Judy Aydelott (D) - Attorney
John Hall (D) - Ex-Ulster County Legislator, Ex-Saugerties School Board Member & Musician
Jim Martorano (D) - Yorktown Town Councilman & Attorney
Darren Rigger (D) - Political Fundraising Consultant
Ben Shuldiner (D) - High School Principal & Teacher

With 5 Dem candidates including one ex Repub this race is a raffle.

Not a great Voter Reg for Kelly and like 8/9 NY districts trending away from the GOP. This district includes Westchester County, which is very quickly becoming very Dem friendly.

Bush did comparatively well here though; 4th highest vote in NY CD's.

The interesting thing about this race is that Kelly is being challenged from the left/right? By ex log cabin field directorJeff Cook (R).

It is hard to tell who will win the GOP primary and what affect it will have on the general.

Were it not for an open race in 24 and a competitive run in 29 this one might be second tier. As it is we should hope for a clean primary and see what the 2006 NY Dem tide brings.

NY 20
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT JOHN SWEENEY 4TH TERM
2004 - SWEENEY GOT 66% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 52.82% OF VOTE, KERRY 45.06%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 88667
11/05 - GOP + 85143

DISTRICT BLOG: http://20trueblue.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES Kirsten Gillibrand : http://www.gillibrand2006.com/
Morris Guller : http://www.gullerforcongress.org/

Expect Gillibrand to be the candidate. She has already raised more cash than the previous two opponents. Gillibrand has managed to swing over some anti-Sweeney Repubs to her cause largely owing to her family history apparently. Gillibrand has generated some very impressive state and national media from her campaign war room.

On the down side however, the GOP Voter Reg advantage has to make this race a harder one to win in NY. Watch this space.

NY 23
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT JOHN MC HUGH 7TH TERM
2004 - MC HUGH GOT 71% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 51.03% OF VOTE, KERRY 46.86%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 65480
11/05 - GOP + 62451

DISTRICT BLOG:
MAIN CANDIDATES: Bob Johnson : http://johnsonforcongress.org/

Good on doctor Bob for running again but this one hasn't crossed the radar at all. Dunno what he has done to be included on a no fly list and I can't tell whether this will be a positive or negative for him.
Comparatively high GOP voter registration advantage but Bush only clocked 51% of vote in 04. If the sleaze tide runs high this could be in the frame but otherwise not a great chance.

NY 24
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT SHERWOOD BOEHLERT 12TH TERM
2004 - BOEHLERT GOT 57% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 51.95% OF VOTE, KERRY 45.90%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 41306
11/05 - GOP + 39668

DISTRICT BLOG: http://takeback24.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES:
Mike Arcuri (D) - Oneida County District Attorney
Brian Goodell (D) - University Employee, Ex-UAW Local President & '04 Candidate
Leon Koziol (D/C/IP/WF) - Attorney
Les Roberts (D) - Epidemiologist & College Professor
Bruce Tytler (D) - Ex-Cortland Mayor

Arcuri is apparently the pick of the bunch.
As an open race the 24th will be the most competitive race this year in NY. Note that Bushes vote here was the 4th lowest of the GOP held CD's in NY.
Boehlert managed to win despite not having the Conservative party line for at least 4 of the last 5 elections. If the eventual GOP candidate can snare the Conservative line then it gets a bit harder for Democrats to win but will still be a barnburner by virtue of being an open race.

NY 25
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT JAMES WALSH 9TH TERM
2004 - WALSH WAS UNOPPOSED
- BUSH GOT 47.77% OF VOTE, KERRY 50.31%!!!
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 24683
11/05 - GOP + 22407

DISTRICT BLOG: http://thewalshwatch.blogspot.com/
MAIN CANDIDATES:
Paloma Capanna (D) - Attorney
Ken Howland (D) - Teacher, Army Veteran & '80 Candidate
Dan Maffei (D) - Ex-Congressional Aide, Businessman & Democratic Activist
Christina Rosetti (D) - Educator & Frequent Candidate

Despite the fact that this district voted for Kerry this race is struggling to get oxygen in a state full of high profile races. This is a pity because it would be a top tier race in any other state or in any other year.

Maffei or Capanna seem to be the picks of the bunch.

NY 26
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT TOM REYNOLDS 4TH TERM
2004 - REYNOLDS GOT 56% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 55.17% OF VOTE, KERRY 43.05%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 45442
11/05 - GOP + 44249

DISTRICT BLOG - ?
MAIN CANDIDATES - Jack Davis - http://www.jackdavis.org/...

Davis is wealthy and held Reynolds to 56% in 04. If the DCCC tip in some assistance this could be a cracker, but they won't so it won't; and Davis hasn't been running an exactly active campaign. Mind you how good would it be to knock off the NRCC chairman?

On the other hand note that Reynolds got about the same vote as Bush unlike most other GOP incumbents in NY who ran ahead of Bush. Voter reg advantage is middle of the road for GOP held districts also. I think this one needs some polling but has the potential to be a flip but will be lost in the ether because of the Gov race, the 24th and 29th.

NY 29
DISTRICT MAP - http://nationalatlas.gov/...
GOP INCUMBENT - RANDY KUHL 1ST TERM
2004 - KUHL GOT 51% OF VOTE
- BUSH GOT 56.31% OF VOTE, KERRY 41.90%
VOTER REG:
11/04 - GOP + 64713
11/05 - GOP + 62669

DISTRICT BLOG: - ?
MAIN CANDIDATES: only one declared the fighting Dem Eric Massa: http://www.massaforcongress.com/.

Make no mistake about it this is a real pick up chance. The only GOP held district in New York where the House candidate (Kuhl) got LESS of the vote than Bush. This is largely because the Conservative Party ran their own candidate. Kuhl has character issues up to his eyeballs including threatening his ex wife at a dinner party with a shotgun on more than one occasion.
Kuhl is up against Band of Brothers Fighting Dem Eric Massa (who saw active service in Desert storm 1). Massa has been merrily blogging away and is seen as a leader of the fighting Dems and can count on significant support from Wesley Clark.

Dems are moving from strength to strength in this part of NY and with Bush's support tanking this should be a marquee race. Some Kossacks have said that we would have won this in 2004 but for an inexperienced candidate and a bad campaign. Maybe maybe not but this will be competitive.

So in conclusion interesting times indeed in NY for the Democratic Party and at least 2 and maybe up to 5 competitive races.

In summary my call of the races is as follows:

1 Barnburner - 24th
1 Competitive race - 29th
1 Watch this space - 20th
2 Look at post primary - 19th and 25th. These two may light up but are more likely to disappear into the ether.
3 Should be competitive but are not (badly missed opportunities) - 3rd, 13th and 26th.
1 Hail Mary - 23rd

Dems to win the 24th and maybe the 29th.

Enjoy.

Poll

Votes: 30
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: NY, NY 2006, NY-3, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, HOUSE, HOUSE ELECTIONS 2006, HOUSE DISTRICTS, 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 8 Comments :: Post a Comment

Your thoughts? (none / 0)

So whaddya reckon about NY races this year?

by BENAWU on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 04:37:16 PM EST

Re: Your thoughts? (3.00 / 1)

This is an excellent analysis with some good information about the races. And I think New York is good territory for the Democrats at the congressional level. You have only two districts where Bush hit 55%, and legitimately strong Democratic candidates in most of the upstate seats, plus the Republicans struggling to field credible candidates for statewide offices this year. Even though the Democrats already hold two thirds of NY's congressional seats, this year is something of a perfect storm and every Republican could legitimately have been challenged.

I'm not that familiar with the upstate races, but downstate you made two errors. First, there is one potentially vulnerable Democratic district. NY 1, on the eastern end of Long island, is the only swing district in the state because it is impossible to gerrymander, and it is the only district in the Northeast that Bush carried but is held by a Democrat, Tim Bishop. I don't know who the Republicans have lined up to challenge, but its not a safe Democratic seat by any means.

Second, even though Gore carried the district, NY 13 is by far the safest Republican district in the state. It was not held by a Democrat before Fossella, it was held by Republicans for decades (remember Sue Molinari), and most of the state legislators and city councilmembers from that part of New York City are Republican. Two thirds of the district is made of Staten Island, and Staten Islanders are very conscious of being distinct from the rest of NYC and will not vote for anyone who is not from the island. The district includes a few neighborhoods in Brooklyn, to meet the population standards, but will never elect anyone from Brooklyn. New York politics is very ethnically oriented, and Italian-Americans, who predominate in NY 13, currently make up the backbone of the NY state Republican party.

Also, in New York, the state parties have an informal understanding not to go too hard at each others' incumbents. Its not surprising that there are weak challengers in some of these districts, and its actually pretty amazing that there are some legitimate races upstate.

by Michels on Sat Mar 18, 2006 at 04:52:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL RACES 2006 (none / 0)

A couple of thoughts. Bush won all the districts listed with the exception of NY-25 meaning they are all pretty hardcore Repub. Additionally, all have incumbents with the exception of NY -24 where Sherry Boehlert is retiring. People need to understand the importance of constituent service and that a lot people will cross party lines to vote for an incumbent who takes care of the district i.e. finds the lost Social Security check, solves the Medicare billing issue, got money to repave the streets, etc. I worked for a white Jewish member of Congress who consistently got re-elected in a 75% minority district by doing those exact things. There is a reason 90+% of incumbents seeking another term get re-elected, even in a bad year like 1994.

Let me address the specific races listed I am familiar with.

NY 13 - This district is based in Staten Island with a small piece of Brooklyn. This is rough territory for Dems. There are a lot of conservative Dems in the district who vote Repub so registration numbers really don't tell the story. DeBlasio doesn't live in the district and his Council district makes up about 10 blocks of the 13th. DeBlasio could be a very strong candidate for Congress but not in this seat. He is not from the population base and will be painted as a carpet bagger. We need a strong Dem from Staten Island to win this seat.

NY 19 - This seat was strengthened greatly for the Repubs in the 2002 redistricting. When the old 20th was chopped up, the Dem parts were split between NY 17 and NY 19. Kelly got most of the Repubs from that seat strenthening her postion. If the stars align, she could lose but realistically b/w the new Repubs added 4 years ago and incumbency it is not likely.

NY 20 - A lot like NY 19 although Gillibrand is a better challenger than the people running against Kelly. Sweeney is a good pol and this is one of the more Repub seats in NY. If stars align, an upset could be in the making but not likely.

I'd love to pick up more seats in NY but I think the Dems are pretty close to maxed out. The Dems hold a 5-3 registration adavantage but we hold 69% (20-9) of the Congressional seats. My gut is that we will pick up Boehlert's seat although there is no guarantee - that is historically a Repub area - but not much more than that.

If we are to get the House back, we need to look beyond NY and CA and start winning seats in PA, Ohio, etc.

by John Mills on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 05:20:45 PM EST

NY-13 (none / 0)

Forgot to comment on this one below. Yes, this is likely to be a missed opportunity. DeBlasio (who gets bandied about running in SEVERAL races) might be better than Harrison since the latter is in the Brookyn side and is a former Fossella supporter. But neither seem the perfect candidate.

by mole333 on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 05:27:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NY-13 (none / 0)

I don't think we will get this seat until Fossella moves on. He is pretty strong and the Repub machine on SI is still very powerful. I would not spend a lot energy here.

by John Mills on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 05:38:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL RACES 2006 (none / 0)

Good analysis for the most part... except...

Most of the upstate districts are trending democratic. The gains are small in enrollment but they are real.

2005 showed serious local Democratic victories in places that never elect Democrats. In some places sweeps. In others just a seat or two pick-up from one town to the next.

12 years of Pataki.

6 years of Bush.

Spitzer and Clinton at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Who?... and... who?... at the top of the Republican ticket.

New York Republicans for the most part are traditional republicans and are not represented by the national Republican party.

Strong candidates, enough money, and a serious organizing effort could win any of the 7 upstate districts. Staten Island is the one district I don't think is winnable at all. Long Island has also been trending Democratic.

NY-20 is going to be a real horse race. I predict an upset but then I'm a little biased.

NY-24 is the top target now that Boehlert has retired but it will take one of those candidates getting serious support in terms of money and organization. Give them that and it is a Democratic pick-up.

NY-29 is probably not as close as it seems but if Massa can figure out how to raise more money then it can make a serious go of it against a 1 term congressman.

NY-26 would be nice but Davis is not that exciting as he is a converted Republican that converted only because he is a protectionist and not really a democrat (as far as I can tell).

NY-23 and NY-25 would be nice but they don't seem to be getting as much attention or serious support as they ought. They too are trending Democratic. Seems to me that a serious statewide effort, supported by a national effort, to make a real challenge at all 9 seats (or at least the upstate 7) would result in at least 3 and possibly a 4 seat pick-up.

I think 19, 20, 24, and 25 can be won. I'm less convinced about 23, 26, and 29.

I think King can be beat in 3 but seriously doubt Fosella can beat unless they catch up with all those waitresses.

The 10,000 Things

by Andrew C White on Sat Mar 18, 2006 at 09:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Working on a primary, but... (3.00 / 2)

I am hoping against hope for big wins this year. But my main focus to date has been helping a friend of mine, Chris Owens, win the primary in NY-11. He is the most progressive of the candidates and extremely brilliant.

But, that race is not about defeating Republicans. It is about changing the Democratic Party to a more progressive party.

My main take on the Democratic Party in general is how many people look to the "Party" as a monolithic structure that we hope will do the right thing. But truth is, the Democratic Party is us. If we miss this opportunity it is just as much that people like you and I didn't do enough as it is that the DNC or DCCC didn't do its job. The more I am involved the more I realize that most politics is indeed local and it is the local Democratic party structure, involving regular folks like you and me, that makes or breaks many elections. So if the opportunity is missed, blame us all, not just the monolithic image we have of the Party.

Helping the locals help themselves is the way to go. And getting active in our local races. Maybe, if nothing else, you could put together an Act Blue site with all these races and we can donate/publicize. Getting a Sweep New York State Agenda going might get some attention. Or at least a few bucks to these races.

by mole333 on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 05:23:56 PM EST

FYI (none / 0)

Second hand inside info indicates the DeBlasio rumor for NY-13 is not true. DeBlasio sounded out the possibility after being passed up for speaker, but is now staying put. Or so the insiders say.

I am starting a "SWEEP NY STATE: Congress" page to highlight these races. Please feel free to pass it around. If I can, I will also put together a Sweep NY State: State Senate version if I can.

by mole333 on Sat Mar 18, 2006 at 09:31:00 PM EST

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