Comparing The Polls On Censure
This morning at Political Wire, Taegan Goddard points out that Republican polling operation Rasmussen Reports has conducted its own poll on censure, coming out with very different results than the American Research Group poll we've been discussing here. While the ARG poll found 46% in favor of censure and 44% opposed, Rasmussen has the numbers flipped, with 45% opposed and 38% in favor. While Rasmussen is known for being fairly reputable for a partisan pollster, this poll was horribly skewed against censure. Just take a look at the question they asked.
Senator Russ Feingold has introduced a measure to censure, or publicly reprimand, President Bush for authorizing the NSA wiretapping program. Should President Bush be censured for authorizing the NSA wiretapping program?
Now compare that with ARG's question.
Do you favor or oppose the United States Senate passing a resolution censuring President George W. Bush for authorizing wiretaps of Americans within the United States without obtaining court orders?
The difference is pretty obvious. As Rasmussen frames it, the question is whether or not the President should be publicly reprimanded for authorizing a program. There is no indication that authorizing such a program may be, in fact, against the law. Thought it gives at least some information, even the ARG poll is somewhat vague on the topic. It's not as if they ended their question with "as required by law," which would probably produce results showing much more support for censure.
This is essentially the same thing as when Rasmussen originally asked if the NSA should be allowed to spy on terrorism suspects and people in the US. They found a substantial majority in favor (64%), which makes sense. Even I agree with that. The numbers would have undoubtedly been different had the question been asked in context of the FISA law, which of course is the issue at hand.
I expect much crowing from Republicans on this new poll. All of it will be completely unwarranted.
Update (Chris): Given the "house effects" (see here and especially here) of ARG and Rasmussen, the truth is probably somewhere in between. Of course, while the truth may be between the two polls, it is also likely that it is closer to ARG. Rasmussen regularly has the wildest outliers of all on Bush job approval (typically about 5-7% higher than the average of other polls). Further, as Scott notes above, Rasmussen's question was quite poor, since there is no mention of the lack of court orders in the program. That is a pretty notable omission, but not surprising given Rasmussen's withdrawal question:Which is more important, getting American troops home as soon as possible or making sure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy?
Which Bush speechwriter wrote that question for them? The rub is that Rasmussen is a Republican firm that regularly asks slanted questions and produces pro-Republican results through a questionable poll weighting method (I believe all national results are weighted based on the 2004 exit polls), and yet even they couldn't find a majority opposed to Feingold's censure resolution.Looking back in time, however, at least we now know what level of public support for censure most Democrats need in order to actually sign onto censure. In the autumn of 1998, straight-up censure polls of President Clinton (that is, poll questions that only asked about support for censure, not censure as one of many options) ranged in support from 51%-60%. Our courageous Democratic caucus apparently needs another 10% of the public in support of censure before it occurs to them that Bush broke the law. Then again, since we were talking about a Democratic President back then, and a Republican President now, most Senate Democrats will probably need another 20-30% of the public in favor of it before they decide that Bush broke the law. This is because it is now painfully obvious that even Democratic Senators hold Democratic Presidents to a higher standard.
As for the favorable ratings of Senator Feingold in the Rasmussen poll, I wouldn't put much stock in them. Rasmussen also regularly finds Senator Clinton with a negative net favorable rating (see also here and here), even though no one else ever does.
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