Chris, you missed my diary ;)

This one is from Competitive Edge.  I found the numbers over at the conservative California blog Flash Report.  They say these guys are good pollers, but I know nothing about them.  The sample size is pretty good, so I would say this may be pretty legit.

Comments on Dailykos say this a Competitive Edge poll taking from this site:

http://www.flashreport.org/blog.php?post ID=2006031421320062

Seems legit. I'm surprised that Morrow is doing so badly, though. Would have thought he'd at least be in second or third place as a well-known State Senator. Surprised that Roach is doing so well.

Well, looks like it'll be Bilbray anyway. Why does he get to be called an "Immigration Refom Consultant"? Shouldn't he be called "former U.S. Congressman" or something like that?

Busby won't get anywhere near 50% on April 11, but hoping she can win on June 6.

I saw that same poll late yesterday. I didn't post because, contrary to some comments above on the thread, I thought it was very bad news for Busby. While on the one hand she seems to do well in hypothetical matchups, the fact is that she is enormously better known than any of the R's except Bilbray, and not coincidentally he's the one she would lose to. More importantly, she only gets 33.5% right now in the special. In a race with something like 12 other candidates, all Repub, I would think she needs more like 45% or so to have a chance in June. Figure she gets a few more percent from the undecided column (I believe 5% of the undecided when pushed went for her), and she hits a ceiling right around normal Democratic performance in this district. There is no evidence she is drawing any substantial number of Republicans yet, which is what she needs to win in June and, more importantly, in November for the full two year term.

By the way, Bilbray fought to be recognized as an "Immigration Advocate" or whatever. He's a complete Neanderthal, way past the racist line, on immigration, but is actually quite moderate, even liberal on other stuff, particularly environmental issues.

Two thoughts: Competetive Edge is a Republican operation.  My son worked for them and could not believe some of the stuff they did in terms of push poling and the obvious Republican bias.  Secondly, Bilbray is definitely the establishment candidate, therefore Competetive Edge would find a way to support him.  

I live in CA 50.  Busby got 38% against Duke last time in a bad year for Dems. It just does not make any sense that she would be less than that this time. This feels like a Bilbray funded effort to dry up his oppositions funding.

Poll is legit.  But, the actually timing of the survey is unclear.  What is interesting is that the conservatives in the race (Morrow, Kaloogian and Roach) are cancelling each other out and leaving the door wide open for the more moderate Bilbray.  In a way, this works to Francine Busby's disadvantage.  Bilbray has a more moderate record, which fits the 50th.  He would gain back his seniority if elected, which helps keep the district on the funding gravy train.  His anti-immigrant activitism is a plus as illegal immigration is the number one issue among likely voters.

Busby runs well against Bilbray, but she will need to really define her position on immigration and hit Bilbray on his lobbying career choice.  

Despite the April 11 election date, this race is a marathon not a sprint.

San Diego Politics has some good posts up regarding the fall out from this poll and internals being done both several Republican candidates.

Words Have Power has some questions about the top conservative Republican in the race.

Actually, Bilbray would be an ideal opponent. He is tainted by the same money that brought down Duke. This is a good fit for the anti-corruption theme Busby is running.

I still think the poll stinks.  And the local PBS station is much more right-wing than most.  And it is a part of the good-old-boys network that runs this town.  Don't be fooled.