You probably have already seen
the poll on TX-28 over at Dailykos today that showed Rodriguez within five points of Cuellar. When I saw the poll, I remember being a little dubious about Morales coming in at 8%. However, just a couple of hours later I received information from someone working on the campaign down there that this is indeed very likely, and that Morales will almost certainly receive at least 5%. This person is working on the direct voter contact efforts down there, which are quite extensive, so I believe that s/he is an authoritative source on the matter.
Given that info, combined with the poll and the fact that the 2004 matchup between Cuellar and Rodriguez
was decided by less than 100 votes (Rodriguez actually led before the recount began), I now believe that it is very likely that neither Cuellar nor Rodriguez will receive the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.
A runoff bodes very well for our chances. If Cuellar can't make 50% then the mood of the district is clearly in favor of dumping him. This isn't even to mention that the trends clearly seem to be against Cuellar at this point in time.
Of course, a runoff will also mean that Ciro will need enough resources to continue to fight after March 7th. So continue
donating and
volunteering.
Oh, and don't worry about this race spreading us too thin.
Francine Busby just passed $1M raised, so I like our chances there as well.
