The open seat situation in the House already noticeably favors Democrats,
but over at The Hill Peter Sovodnik writes that it could get even better
House Republicans have limited most of their retirements to conservatives in solidly red districts and a handful of statewide-office seekers, but political analysts say 10 to 15 more Republicans could announce in the coming months that they are stepping down.(...)
For now, there are 25 open seats. Sixteen of those are held by Republicans, eight are held by Democrats and one is vacant and was previously held by a Republican.(...)
Amy Walter, a senior editor at the Cook Political Report, observed that in August 1993 there were three Democratic open seats. By March that had jumped to 22 and by July to 30.
The critical question, Walter said, is whether there will be a similar cascade of Republican retirements in 2006 and, just as important, whether those retirements are in competitive districts.(...)
The Cook Political Report rates three House Democratic open-seat races as competitive and one a tossup, in the district of Ohio Rep. Ted Strickland. The report rates 10 House Republican open-seat races as competitive, with three tossups -- seats now held by Reps. Jim Kolbe of Arizona, Bob Beauprez of Colorado and Jim Nussle of Iowa.
Republicans are favored in the April race to replace Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R-Calif.), but only slightly.
Of course, not only would fifteen more Republican retirements be a sign of a coming Democratic wave, but those retirements would actually fuel the wave substantially. Also, this seems to generally be based on speculation, and it is not as though this is somehow a guarantee or even a good bet. It is interesting that we are starting to see more and more of these articles about how 2006 could potentially be a very big year for Democrats. Either political reporters have grown bored after years of writing the "close election" narrative and are now looking for something new, or there is actually a growing consensus that Democrats have a huge opportunity in 2006. I do not know which scenario I more likely, but either way it is good news for us.
