Feel free to add on some race or to call out typos i wrote it fast so there are bound to be a few typos.

IN-2 Chris Chocola got just 54% in a year when Bush ran +2.5% nationally.  Even a slight Democratic wind and the bough will break.

New York: 9/11 bit hard but 2006 is a Dem year. Gore's margin was slashed by 8 points here.  Meanwhile, the Repubs are struggling to field candidates for Gov and Senator.

NY-29  Fighting dem Eric Massa takes on first-termer Randy Kuhl. Kuhl won 50-41 in 2004.

NY-24 Sherwood Boehlert has represented this district since the 70s but he's retiring in a CD trending blue.  Just 56% the last time and now it's open.  Yum!

NY-26 Tom Reynolds is running the Republican House campaign nationally.  At 56% in a big Dem year he's a tempting target.

NJ-7  Mike Ferguson got 57% but also got a 200,000 fine.  Talk about a target!  Dump Mike, says the blog.  Sounds good to me. Oh, yeah, Nj was second on the 9/11 casualty list and kerry's 7 point edge was less than half of Gore's 16 and well below Corzine's 11 last year.

NY-13 could develop with the right candidate.  It's the only NYC Republican House seat.  Dems hold a huge 60,000 edge in voter registration.  Even NYC mayor and top Republican Mike Bloomberg is targeting local GOPers in the legislature.  The question here is whether lawyer Gregory Harrison is a strong enough candidate to take down Vito Fossella.

NJ-5 Garrett could go but Aronsohn looks like a weak candidate to take him down.

CA-26 Drier Isn't he being forced out.  Drier got just 54% in 2004, the weakest showing of any California Republican including Duke Cunningham.

FL-13  Katherine Harris is leaving an open seat.  She got just 55% in 2004.

Several uncontested seats could open up.  Virginia Foxx in NC-5 got 59% and looks like she's as old as Metheuselah from the picture on her web site.  Now if only a strong challenger steps up.

Nancy Boyda held Jim Ryun, the former world record holder in the mile, to a so-so 56%.  Boyda may or may not run.  Jim's best running days were in the the 1960s.  Slowing down, Jim?

Even Barbara Cubin in Wyoming makes some lists.  That's right, Wyoming.  How bout that, kansas and Wyoming.

Hm i think i will add NY-29th and Florida's 13th but i need more background on the rest you listed David. Candidates all that good stuff. also i relise the whole Jhon and John thing and sorry long day.

Has Boehlert announced his retirement yet David?

If so this district is winnable if not forget it.

The Utica Observer Dispatch reports, "Boehlert ... has not said whether he will run."  He "will announce his intentions in mid-March."

Meanwhile, Boehlert has not been active raising money despite an active primary challenge from the right in Brad Jones.  Democrats have begun lining up for this seat.  Originally, only epidemiologist Les Roberts was running.  More recently, Oneida County District Attorney Michael Arcuri entered the race.  The latest Democratic entry is conservative Dem and flashy (by Utica standards) lawyer Leon Koziol.  Koziol is best known for taking on the local Indian tribes.

If Boehlert were running he'd be fund-raising just to stave off Jones.  Oh, I erred.  He's only been in the House 24 years (just missing the 70s).

Mike Ferguson in NJ 7 has two pretty decent Dems running against him.  One is Joe Tricario, the State's Assistant Health Commissioner and the former mayor of Hillsborough.  The other is Linda Stender, a former Union County Freeholder (a county commissioner elsewhere) an former mayor of Fanwood.

Aronson in NJ-5 is a former aide to ex-NJ Governor Jim McGreevey.  Good for raising money but not so good politically.  Aronson publicly defended McGreevey's hiring of boyfriend Golan Cippel for a state job.  Mcgreevey announced he was gay, had given Cippel a job, and resigned.

I'm checking on the other districts.

AZ-08: Our candidate should be ex-State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (she resigned in December to run). she's already raised a quarter million dollars, and is our best shot at winning this seat.

WI-08: physician Steve Kagen has dropped $1,250,000 of his own money into his account for this race. that alone makes it competitive.

I think a 5-10 seat pickup is more of a realistic possibility.  We can get CTi, COo, IAo, MNo, NMi, PAi, TXi, and VTo.  While losing ILi.  For a 225R-210D GOP advantage.  As for the Senate a realistic possibility is MO, OH, PA, and RI for a 51-48-1I GOP advandage. As for the Gov, we will get ALi, ARo, CAi, COo, MAo, NYo, and OHo while losing IA and maybe one other state: PA,IL,WI, ME, or OR.  For a 27-23 Democratic advantage.  225R-210D GOP advantage in the House, 51R-49D GOP advantage in the Senate and a 27D-23R Dem advantage in the gubernatorial races.

Ah, IN-2.  This was Tim Roemer's seat for 10 years.  Chocola eked by 50-46 in 2004 and 54-45 in 2004. He's currently got only 200,000 net cash on hand but Bush is due in on Feb.23 to fund raise.  Last time around, Bush not only raised 650,000 for Chocola but also campaigned for him on a later occassion.  democrat Joseph Donnelly is making a repeat run from 2004 and promises to do a better job of fund raising.

David Dreier is building up a huge war chest in CA-26 (3 million).  The district, in the foothills outside of LA is not made for cheap ads.  Drier once more faces right winger Sonny Sardo in a primary.  Sardo has little money but will hit hard about immigration and traditional values.  He has a Silver Star, a Purple Heart, and firm ideas about illegal immigrants.  Russ Warner, a local businessman whose son served in Iraq, is running as the Democrat.  Warner's web site included a family picture as well as a pic with Wes Clark.

Uh, it's republican Jim Kolbe who is retiring in AZ-08. If the republicans run a right wingnut (Kolbe was challenged by one in the primary last time around - he didn't fare as well as he should have) for the general election this seat could definitely go Democratic. My parents, who live in the district, would be absolutely thrilled by such an outcome.

CO-7 has only three D candidates - Herb Rubenstein, Peggy Lamm, and Ed Perlmutter.  The Republican - Rick O'Donnell - had Dick Cheney in to stump for him already this year, so we should be able to tie him to an anti- one-party-rule meme.  I rate this a 65-35 pickup opportunity.

In CO-4, the additional factor not posted is that the remaining 4% of voters went to a strong Green candidate; that puts the 2004 comparison at essentially 51-49.  Paccione is doing an excellent job at fundraising so far.  Musgrave has previously relied on an extensive (excessive) warchest to offset her otherwise weak appeal; she already called in the Chimpinator himself for a fundraiser this year, but her fundraising may be hurt by the scandals brewing among the GOP.  I rate this a 50-50 pickup.

As a resident of Florida's 13th district, I'm not sure how much the Democratic challenger (Jan Schneider) is popular as much as everyone in this district is embarrassed to be associated with Katherine Harris. I voted for Schneider twice, and she ran well against Harris, but this district still has many, many people who would much rather vote for a nice, pasty-white, male, Republican than for ANY Democrat. There are 115,000 registered Republicans in Sarasota County, compared to only 75,000 registered Democrats . . .and Sarasota County is probably the most 'purple' of the four counties that make up the district.

The Republicans are going to field a tough candidate: they've got four possibles lined up for the primary. The most name recognition here in Sarasota is Vern Buchanan, who owns several local car dealerships. But they've also got the State Representatives from Venice (Nancy Detert), and from Sarasota(Donna Clarke) running, as well as the former Sarasota Republican Party Chairman (Tramm Hudson.)

However, there are some good signs in the district. When Democrat Betty Castor ran for Governor, she did surprisingly well, even though she spent almost no time down here. (She seemed to spend most of her efforts in Tampa, Orlando, and Miami, and in general in the North of the state.

Anyway, I hope and pray we can get a Dem in the 13th district seat, but I think this is more of an uphill battle than most National analysts realize.

Most people I have spoken with see CA-11 as a better pickup chance than CA-04 at this point.  If I still lived in Folsom (in Sacramento County), I'd be working hard for Charlie Brown.  But in the Bay Area there seems to be an emerging consensus (maybe it's wrong) that Pombo is more vulnerable than Doolittle.  If Doolittle gets indicted, that'll be a different story.  But for now, I think Pombo's weak popularity in the district (a DCCC poll pegged his re-election number at <35% and more than 20% of the voters in his district didn't even know who he was a year ago), the changing demographics of his district, Pombo's recent high-profile attacks on the environment, a number of growing ethical scandals, and the attention of national environmental groups, all make Pombo (somewhat) vulnerable.  

The voting history of CA-4 does not support a pick-up.  Our chances are pretty much based on the likely hood that Congressman John Doolittle is tainted if not downright crooked.

The case against Doolittle is pretty much based on the active investigation of the Sacramento Bee.  The Bee seems to be hammering Doolittle frequently and getting under his skin.  Among other things they are actively trying to link Doolittle to Brent Wilkes, the defense contractor who bribed Duke Cunningham.  Doolittle received more legal cash from Wilkes than the Dukestir.  Wilkes also gave generoulsly to Jerry Lewis and Tom DeLay.

If the Bee hits home, Doolittle is in deep doo doo.  Of course, Duke Cunningham took $630,000 in bribes from Wilkes.  The Bee quotes Wilkes as stating that half of his earmarked defense contracts ($250 million) was pure profit.   He intended to spend a lot more than shows in the public record to cash in.

More recently, Cunningham's local paper in San Diego has also chipped in.

Republican House Incumbents who were elected or re-elected in 2004 with less than 60% of the popular vote and Democratic Challenger got more than 40% of the popular vote.
1)California 26 (Drier-R)
2)Colorado 4 (Musgrave-R)
3)Colorado 7 OPEN(Beauprez-R)
4)Connecticut 2 (Simmons-R)
5)Connecticut 4 (Shays-R)
6)Florida 13 OPEN (Harris-R)
7)Georgia 11 (Gingrey-R)??
8)Illinois 6 OPEN (Hyde-R)
9)Illinois 11 (Weller-R)
10)Indiana 2 (Chocola-R)
11)Indiana 8 (Hostettler-R)
12)Indiana 9 (Sodrel-R)
13)Iowa 1 OPEN (Nussle-R)
14)Kansas 2 (Ryun-R)
15)Kentucky 4 (Davis-R)
16)Louisiana 7 (Boustanty-R)
17)Michigan 11 (McCotter-R)
18)Minnesota 2 (Kline-R)
19)Minnesota 6 OPEN (Kennedy-R)
20)Nebraska 1 (Fortenberry-R)
21)Nevada 3 (Porter-R)
22)New Jersey 5 (Garrett-R)
23)New Jersey 7 (Ferguson-R)
24)New Mexico 1 (Wilson-R)
25)New York 13 (Fossella-R)
26)New York 26 (Reynolds-R)
27)New York 29 (Kuhl-R)
28)North Carolina 5 (Foxx-R)
29)North Carolina 8 (Hayes-R)
30)North Carolina 11 (Taylor-R)
31)Ohio 1 (Chabot-R)
32)Ohio 2 (Schmitt-R)
33)Ohio 4 OPEN (Oxley-R)
34)Ohio 15 (Pryce-R)
35)Pennsylvania 6 (Gerlach-R)
36)Pennsylvania 7 (Weldon-R)
37)Pennsylvania 8 (Fitzpatrick-R)
38)Texas 2 (Poe-R)????
39)Texas 19 (Neugaber-R)????
40)Texas 22 (Delay-R)
41)Texas 32 (Sessions-R)????
42)Virginia 2 (Drake-R)
43)Washington 5 (McMorris-R)
44)Washington 8 (Reichart-R)
45)West Virginia 2 (Capito-R)
46)Wyoming (Cubin-R)

Other Competitve House Districts
1)Arizona 1 (Renzi-R)
2)Arizona 5 (Hayworth-R)
3)Arizona 8 OPEN (Kolbe-R)
4)California 4(Doolittle-R)
5)California 11 (Pombo-R)
6)California 46 (Rohrbacher-R)
7)California 48 (Campbell-R)
8)California 50 OPEN (Cunningham-R)
9)Connecticut 5 (Johnson-R)
10)Florida 9 OPEN (Bilkaris-R)???
11)Florida 22 (Shaw-R)
12)Idaho 1 OPEN (Otter-R)
13)Iowa 2 (Leach-R)
14)Kentucky 1 (Whitfield-R)
15)Kentucky 2 (Lewis-R)
16)Kentucky 3 (Northup-R)
17)Maryland 6 (Bartlett-R)??
18)Michigan 7 (Schwartz-R)
19)Michigan 8 (Rogers-R)
20)Michigan 9 (Knollenberg-R)
21)Minnesota 1 (Gutknect-R)
22)Missouri 2 (Akin-R)
23)Montana (Rehberg-R)
24)Nebraska 3 OPEN (Osborne-R)????
25)Nevada 2 OPEN(Gibbons-R)
26)New Hampshire 1 (Bradley-R)
27)New Hampshire 2 (Bass-R)
28)New York 3 (King-R)
29)New York 19 (Kelly-R)
30)New York 24 (Boehlert-R)
31)New York 25 (Walsh-R)
32)Ohio 18 (Ney-R)
33)Oklahoma 5 OPEN (Istook-R)
34)Pennsylvania 4 (Hart-R)
35)Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood-R)
36)Texas 4 (Hall-R)
37)Virginia 5 (Goode-R)
38)Virginia 11 (Davis-R)
39)Wisconsin 8 OPEN (Green-R)