RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both Dems make big move on Chafee

Finally, another poll from Rhode Island. And it is a very interesting one too:
The survey was conducted Feb. 4 to 6 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions and the John Hazen White Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 785 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

If the general election were held today, Chafee has an advantage of 40 to 34 percent over Whitehouse (compared to his lead of 38 percent to 25 percent in September). If Brown is the Democratic nominee, Chafee's lead is 38 percent to 36 percent (compared to 41 percent to 18 percent in September).

If the Republican nominee were Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, Whitehouse is ahead by 44 percent to 29 percent (up from the 35 percent to 25 percent lead Whitehouse had in September). If the nominees were Laffey and Brown, Brown has an advantage of 47 percent to 24 percent over Laffey (up from 30 percent to 26 percent in September).

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Brown is the choice of 31 percent of the 323 voters who indicated they were very likely to vote in the Democratic primary, while 25 percent say they prefer Whitehouse, 0 percent say they plan to vote for Carl Sheeler, and 44 percent are undecided. The margin of error in this likely Democratic primary sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In September, Whitehouse had an advantage of 32 to 16 percent over Brown.
Wow. Brown clearly has a lot of mo' on Whitehouse, and both Dems are closing hard on Chafee. In the Republican primary, I am cheering for Laffey, who would clearly have no chance in the general. Even if Chafee wins the primary, both Brown and Whitehouse are in a strong position to take this state.

This poll adds Rhode Island to the "already competitive" column for Dems, making five total. If Dems can come up with one more of these, then a takeover of the Senate becomes a possibility.



Display:


Laffey vs Chafee? (none / 0)

Did they seriously do a poll with every possible matchup between the Republican candidates and Democratic candidates, and a poll for the Democratic primary, but NOT a poll for the Republican primary?  Those are some of the most important numbers right now!


Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:13:47 PM EST

Re: Laffey vs Chafee? (3.00 / 2)

More importantly, does discussing Laffey/Chafee make anyone want some candy?


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Laffey vs Chafee? (none / 0)

hahaha, and I'm actually eating a Laffy Taffy right now!


Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:36:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Laffey vs Chafee? (none / 0)

Just don't sing that song.  It's vile.

Here's yr cross-tabs.  Note that Whitehouse may have a slight female problem.


by Adam B on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Laffey vs Chafee? (none / 0)

And Chaffee's Democrat support is 34-37%. Cut into that a bit and it's a helluva race.  I wonder whether more coverage of the eventual Dem candidate will accomplish exactly that.


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 07:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Laffey vs Chafee? (none / 0)

yeah, really.
by Chris Bowers on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Senate takeover (none / 0)

As far as the Senate takeover possibilities go, does the entrance of James Webb for VA-Sen boost that race to "already competitive"?  That has to boost it to "potentially competitive, tier 1" at the very least.


Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:15:32 PM EST

Re: Senate takeover (none / 0)

Currently i'd say he's on the same level as Jim Pederson of Arizona, potentially very competitive but not yet so.


by KainIIIC on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 04:06:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate takeover (none / 0)

He's just a name right now.  We need solid poll numbers before we can call it "already competitive".

Webb also needs heavy-duty fundraising, grassroots support, a campaign website!!! and staff.


Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by HellofaSandwich on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 05:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RI-Sen: Brown Ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

Does anyone want Ga?

Saxby Chambliss is coming up I think - Ga. has a lot of untapped resentment about how things are going..


by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:42:00 PM EST

Chambliss isn't up until '08.... (none / 0)

If I am not mistaken, Saxby ran his smear Cleland campaign in 2002, meaning Georgia is stuck with him until 2008.


by Keith Brekhus on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:52:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RI-Sen: Brown Ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

Chambliss is on the block in '08, I'm sure there'll be people to take on the task.


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 03:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RI-Sen: Brown Ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

The only thing that that guy has going for him is his beautiful name.

I mean: SAXBY CHAMBLISS!  Doesn't it just ooze Southern genteel sophistication?

Too bad he's such fucking scum.


Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by HellofaSandwich on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 05:24:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RI-Sen: Brown Ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

maybe we can name a cocktail after him someday and sip it on the porch while someone else picks the cotton? :)


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 05:30:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

These are suprising results.  What is going on that makes primary voters suddenly prefer Brown to Whitehouse?  I like them both but it seemed like Whitehouse had a much better campaign going.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 05:07:20 PM EST

Re: RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

Brown has spent a lot of cash on ads to get his name ID up. the side effect is that he's now the candidate with the least cash on hand ($481k as opposed to Chafee's $1.76m, Whitehouse's $1.56m, and Laffey's $860k).


by johnny longtorso on Thu Feb 09, 2006 at 11:34:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RI-Sen: Brown ties Whitehouse in primary, both (none / 0)

Matt's a likable character - people weren't really paying attention to the race.  His approval rating has gone up with his name ID, and Sheldon's down - people want to vote for this guy.


by Yoohoo on Fri Feb 10, 2006 at 12:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Make that 6 (none / 0)

James Webb is running against George Allen. I would call that already competetive. Check out the story on Allen's susceptibility: http://www.raisingkaine.com/1784
on Webb's announcement: http://www.raisingkaine.com/1797

Who thinks Webb will make George Allen look like the spiteful bedwetter he is?


Progress is Personal | Connie Brennan | My opinions are mine alone
by msnook on Wed Feb 08, 2006 at 08:57:11 PM EST


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