Ok, so I asked you for input on my questions surrouding 2006, and you responded. The goal of this excercise is to collectively think through the strategic landscape of 2006, setting the electoral maps and polling aside and concentrating on what we can do and what we should expect to increase progressive power. I'm going to advocate for cooperating with conservative Democrats at some points, and working against them at other points.
The Context
Karl Rove Inc. will make this election about two things. One, national security, and two, ethics. Yes, they are going to go for our strongest issue, as they usually do. They are going to figure out a way to Swiftboat Democrats on ethics, and to be honest, it's not that hard because they are waging a defensive battle whereas we must actually take ground.
Prepping for this is key. So what do we have to work with? Well, a rapidly expanded blogosphere and a much more coherent party, for starters. And then we have our candidates and leadership.
Now, this is the hard part. Like it or not, the Democratic leadership has decided that Tim Kaine is the model candidate for 2006. My discussions with party committee people and donors leads me to believe that we just aren't in the progressive frame of mind, and the candidates that are successful at this stage are Tim Kaine-ites. That's reality, and since I live in the reality based community, I'm going to recognize that this is what we have to work with. I have friends I respect very much who worked for Tim Kaine, but the point is really moot. They out-organized, out-recruited, and out-raised us in primaries in a system rigged around money, and they won. But whatever, life isn't fair, and we're adults. The upside for progressives is that if we cooperate and play our cards right, we can help shift the political terrain towards our issues and help conservative Democrats win at the same time.
But realize this. Democrats running will be hit hard, with national security and ethics charges. I saw it in New Jersey, and that's the playbook. Anyone who thinks that the Republicans will simply allow us to present our plans for energy independence, health care improvements, and lobbying reform in a vaccuum is fooling themselves. We will face a withering multimedia negative campaign, as we did in 2000, 2002, and 2004.
So what contour will this campaign take? Well, let's do a thought experiment. What is the one effective tool that neither party has used because of an uneasy truce? The House Ethics Process. The House of Representatives actually has rules that guide its behavior, and ostensibly governs the behavior of members. The enforcement mechanism is the House Ethics Committee, which has a range of tools at its disposal. What the Republicans have done is to neuter this Committee, playing around with staff numbers and even replacing Committee members to make it more pliable. In 1998, they passed a Congressional ethics reform package that prevented non-members from filing complaints. Since then, they have attempted to break it completely.
They have failed. It actually works, and it is still a tool that either Democrats or Republicans can use. Here's how the process works. Once a member decides that a House rule has been broken, he/she can file a complaint against that member for breaking a House rule, and within 45 days, the House must take action. This often generates press, public pressure, and ultimately, it works. Tom Delay's fall started after his admonishment by the House Ethics Committee; so did Newt Gingrich, actually.
Right now, Nancy Pelosi will not let members file against Republicans, because if a Democrat were to file, the Republicans will file against Democratic members, regardless of merit. This happened to Chris Bell in 2004 when he filed an ethics complaint against Tom Delay, but he was redistricted out of his district and so he didn't care about his future House career. Bell was apparently ostracized from fellow members, and he had ethics charges filed against him. Now, nothing Pelosi is doing can actually prevent a member from filing, it's just that she can make it unpleasant for Democrats to do so. And so far, they have listened, and are waiting for the long-promised ethics strategy.
Now, there are corrupt Democrats as well - William Jefferson, for instance. And if you think the Republicans aren't going to file complaints against him to muddy the waters, you haven't watched the last few years of politics. And they will probably throw in complaints against Murtha, Waxman, Pelosi, Bean or any other member they need to tar. It's just their way. My guess is that Pelosi thinks that because she is keeping her caucus from filing, that the Republican leadership is doing so as well. In her mind, it's a nice pleasant deal that will last until well after November 2006. What I would say to Democratic members is that Nancy Pelosi may be able to stop you from filing against them, but she can't stop them from filing against you. And all it takes is one Republican member to do it, so none of you are safe.
The game plan could play out like this. On national security, they will call us unpatriotic. They will run ads comparing us with Bin Laden, and they will attempt to drive fear to the ballot box. This is nothing new, and it will be pared with divisive and direct-mail friendly social issues, such as immigration and gay marriage. On Iraq, we will keep being wedged apart. On ethics, at a strategically appopriate time, say, one week or one month before the election, they will file ethics complaints against our prominent spokespeople or vulnerable members. Their strategy is to have the last week of media stories, when voters really start paying attention, to be centered around Democratic disarray on national security, Republican strength and resolve, and bipartisan corruption. They think they can again win on strong and wrong, and to do that, filing ethics charges against us are key to destroying our chances of capitalizing on the Abramoff scandal. Remember, allowing any Democrat to acquire subpoena power is a something they will oppose with merciless rabid tactics. Expect anything less and you will are foolish.
Ok, so that's the context for their playbook, and what we have to work with.
Next I'll tackle message.|
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