Afternoon Thread

Here are some quick stories. You can always find lots more of these over in Breaking Blue. This is an open thread. Matt here adding new links.
  • The Agonist talks to Col. Ken Allard on the Civil War-like conditions in Iraq.

  • Jane criticizes NARAL for its lack of accountability.

  • The NRSC is attacking Robert Byrd for advertising on Kos.

  • New Yorker public affairs consultant and all around great guy Mike Klein blogs about visiting New Orleans.

  • Benjamin Simon has a great piece in the Yale Daily News on Ned Lamont.  It's funny, I didn't really read my college newspaper in college, but with the internet becoming mainstream, it seems my information diet is widening across many more sources.

  • DownwithTyranny has a great post on a self-righteous Lieberman chilling the music industry for political gain.

  • Lindsay Beyerstein muses about the NYU Grad student strike.



Display:


Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

Chris- excuse my ignorance but which union were you at? I'm a huge labor geek who sometimes suffers on the delusion that I know everybody.


by DMIer on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 04:32:25 PM EST

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

I worked for the AFT.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 05:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bingo! (none / 0)

Heh.

...I am slowly coming to believe that those commenters who are the biggest whiners and disparagers of not only the existing progressive leadership, but also those people who are leading the reform movement, don't ever actually do jack squat themselves...

The hard part for many people in going from the theoretical/philosophical (yes, I'm being charitable) to the practical in political activism is actually taking that first step. Once you do so, it's not too bad. Find a candidate you can support with your time and effort and then just do it. They will appreciate loyal and dedicated volunteers much more than a cash donation. I recommend getting in the trenches - stuff envelopes, make phone calls, flyer neighborhoods - it all works.


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 04:35:32 PM EST

Well... (none / 0)

I'm kind of snotty, but donate and volunteer regularly, am Assist Treasurer of a PAC, and got myself elected to my Dem State Committee.

Exception that proves the rule I guess.


by ElitistJohn on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 05:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well... (none / 0)

This comment requires careful thought, because it is the dawning of an english major trying to interpret, someone elses statistical interpretation.

Plato had this great idea about the realm of forms, where there is a true form, lets say, for an activist - and the artist - is removed from that realm of forms, because he makes an image of , lets say - the activist, in his writing. Plato's ideal was to write only with the conviction and analysis of science, which in the 21st century demands at least some discussion of uncertainty and factors that could correlate to a real explanation of the data, instead of someone else's ideas based on their assumptions.

One could speak personally, which would be nice, given that this is a blog. In fact, whats really fun sometimes is to know who needs to keep their anonymity in order to get anything done... Bowers is obviously living in the limelight, but maybe the real heavy lifting is done behind the scenes.. or in the middle of the night... who knows. Those people would have only one outlet, because they can't work anywhere else. Showing up to flyer door to door is great - but when was the last time you actually bought something from a door to door salesman?

Alright - so lets get into it. Personal aside.
First, speaking as an activist whose main goal is disintermediation (my big action item these days is to support removal of "riders") - try this approach - read the actual data, in a spreadsheet where you can crunch it yourself!. Excel has everything you need for really easy, and sophisticated analysis.

Then, the next thing you want to look at is the original report  of the data ,  note well, that the people analysing the data are not english majors!  They're math majors like me.

Ok. Now, we're getting somewhere.  Now lets play the standard game. Suppose you don't have enough to page through about 20 pages of a report , that you're reading just for kicks anyway.  Go with logic.

1. The analysis of the report, is true.
2. The analysis of the report is untrue.

If its untrue, do a reality check on your own activism, donate more, join moveon.org and get out of my face.

If its true - ask the question - what could be the correlating factors? Now, take the socratic method. Explore the relative truth, by showing one case where it is not true and see if the logic holds.  (cf. Meno)

From the study:

Controlling for either income or education, ... mutes the difference between frequent and occasional... both levels of use have strong positive effects on political participation, relative to never using the Internet.

And now, we ask - in the standard socratic dialogue - who could this user be? A newbie of course. So, is it true, that newbies who jump onto the blogs don't spend alot of time as activists.

A telling footnote:

"3 It is important to note that these comparisons are not of the same
people over time. These comparisons are conducted by sorting
individuals into income groups within a given year (the bottom
fifth, the next fifth, up to the top fifth) and then calculating the
average income within each group for that year. Then for some
later year the same process is repeated and the comparison is of
those in the bottom fifth for one year with the bottom fifth for
another year. There could or could not be considerable mobility
among income groups from year to year, a separate but very
important matter."

Now let us ask - if we don't have newbies - and after all - who would be the veterans, but those who were already in the industry or computer savvy to begin with - what would the effect of this factor be?

This is why English Majors don't make good statisticians.  

The truth is, most of the veterans and really avid online users at the top end are now battling the effects of offshoring, and are apolitical only for the fact that the cost of action exceeds that, which they can time afford.

Now, let us ask if this were not true, ie. if the time afford would be great enough and the tech sector stabilizing. Well, this would clearly trend upward for employment.

But when we check employment, we find offshoring increasing at the rate of 25% per annum, and a surprisingly high rise in white collar - programmer level unemployment. In other words,

This poll doesn't show that people who are avid online users, are apolitical. Instead, it could point to a clearly disturbing trend amongst our high tech sectors  - one that was pointed out in several other published studies. There have been massive layoffs and pay cuts in that sector.

If you alias out that very vocal and very verbal group, you will likely again mute the differences.  It is probably very frustrating, in fact, to see that there are so many who talk here of Union power - but for which the largest sector of the american services labour force is entirely unrepresented and offshoring to account for one in  five of all jobs.

when I add in that factor, I find that bowers analysis of someone elses analysis doesn't hold water.

by the way, since I am a small business owner, I spend my time  very wisely and the envelope pasting stuff I will leave to the other folks.


by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 06:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well... (none / 0)

BTW too if you read that study, it goes all over the place - the original study, that is.

Check out this gem:

53 percent of Americans believe that government
is generally too complicated
for most people to understand. In
other words, they believe that vigilance
is difficult, if not impossible.
Exactly one third of respondents
endorsed both views: that is, that
leaders can't be trusted, and government
is too complicated to understand.

Vigilance on the part of a sector of people trying to defend their jobs against 1.00 a day labour, would be almost frenetic to try to grasp the workings of the government, and probably very demoralizing...

I hope I have the right study?!


by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 06:47:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You don't market? (none / 0)

...by the way, since I am a small business owner, I spend my time  very wisely and the envelope pasting stuff I will leave to the other folks...

How convenient for you. So, you don't have a marketing plan for your "small business"?

Direct personal contact by a candidate is the most effective voter persuasion technique. Direct personal contact by a surrogate is somewhat less effective. Direct mail (within a comprehensive mail plan) is the third most effective technique. Everything else pales in comparison (depending on the size and type of the voter universe).

Small campaigns in localities without major media markets have to rely on personal voter contact and direct mail. Democratic campaigns don't have the unending supply of money that the opposition uses to contract out their direct mail. As a consequence, volunteers who "paste the envelopes"  are an essential lifeblood in getting more bang for the buck in prearing and executing direct mail. Try making a small difference with someone's, anyone's campaign in this manner - but please, the "I don't do that" excuse is tiresome. We all have lives, eh?  


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 08:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bad Link (none / 0)

The ElihuBen diary currently goes to Busby's webpage.


by kilb on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 06:07:20 PM EST

Correction (none / 0)

Thanks for linking to my diary about Lamont (as well as my op-ed), but you mis-spelled my username (ElihuBen) and the link goes to Francine Busby's page.


by elihuben on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 06:11:42 PM EST

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)


The AFL-CIO is going to dump $40M into the 2006 elections. As a former union organizer, I cringe a bit when I see that number. That is a lot of money that could be spent on new organizing instead.

I understand your concern--and that of the union groups that split off from AFL-CIO for this reason last year--regarding unions allocating signifigant amounts of money to electoral battles rather than building up their membership that has dwindled as a percentage of the labor market over the last few decades and the benefits stronger unions would bring for the hard working Americans and for the Democratic party.

I don't necessarily think that their committment is a bad thing here, though. If the money is spent wisely in what we're increasingly talking about being a "change election" then their efforts on the ground and funding dollars could help build the pressure up behind our tidal wave of change and help sweep Democrats into office and into a majority in one or both houses.


by Quinton on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 06:43:48 PM EST

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

I agree.  Sometime political spending is necessary.  Labor spent over $100M on the special election last year.  Had Arnold not been in office there would have been no fight to begin with.


by juls on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 07:06:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

political success in and of itself will begat more organizing naturally.


The only balls the Clintons ever show are against their fellow Democrats, especially progressives.
by jgarcia on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 08:13:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

The largest progressive organization in the country is committing a large amount of its scarce resources to effecting sweeping change in Congress and breaking the regressive chokehold in place there, and this is "dumping" money?

Rather than cringing, we should be rejoicing. And wishing that all of our "allies" were as committed to the cause.


by Sierra Volk on Wed Mar 01, 2006 at 07:11:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

I think the CBS poll showing Bush at 34-59 approve-disapprove is an outlier

Wow, if I were near enough to you to collect, I'd bet you some cash on that one. CBS is traditionally one of the lower polls for Bush, and I don't think the fall in his approvals is hard to credit, at all. Other polls are showing similar drops, and it's been politically among the worst two or three weeks of the Bush Presidency, imo. In terms of political impact, this rivals Katrina at the very least because it is hitting him right where he lives, on "national security" issues.

I'd be very surprised if he rose much from there in the CBS poll; he may even drop a little more.


by BriVT on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 06:50:29 PM EST

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

The important thing is the direction. They're all pointing down.


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 08:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Afternoon Thread (none / 0)

I agree.  It might be at the low end of the range, but I'll bet the other polls show him in the 34-38 range as well.  Between the ports and Iraq, I'll bet some republicans are starting to disapprove/not answer.  But at this point these are voters that are going GOP in '06 anyhow.  The benefit from further drops is to push the "unpopular president" narrative and hope that the GOP vote is depressed and unmotivated.


by BBigJ on Tue Feb 28, 2006 at 08:59:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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