This part of the forecast only deals with the big picture of the Governor picture. The second part, which I hope to have up tonight or tomorrow morning, will give a brief rundown of the competitive races. As always, I am open to comments and possible corrections--Chris
Following in the footsteps of
my regular Senate forecast, and
my new House forecast first released earlier this month, we now arrive at the completion of my forecast trilogy: Governors. I have held off on this one the longest, mainly because Governors races are much trickier to forecast than either House or Senate races. These races tend to be trickier than federal races because partisan voting tendencies at the federal level generally do not apply to Governors. For example, the four most pro-Democratic states in terms of Presidential voting tendencies all have Republican Governors (New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont). In the same vein, some of the most pro-Republican states in terms of Presidential voting tendencies have Democratic Governors (Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas and Montana). Another reason these races tend to be more difficult to forecast is because financial information on the races is not generally available. Campaign finance and disclosure laws for Governors races are on a state-by-state basis, and there is no central location where these numbers are reported.
Now, having said all that, I am going to give this a go anyway. First, look at these two maps.
This is the current Governor's map. Republican control 28 states, and Democrats control 22. Now, here is another map:
This is the Governor's 2006 election map. Blue states are either forecasted as safe for Democrats in 2006, or as not up for re-election. Red states are either forecasted as safe for Republicans, or as not up for election. Purple states are states that I forecast to be competitive in 2006, at least for now. As you can see from the differences between the two maps, far more Republican held seats, fourteen, are danger than are Democratic held seats, eight. The population numbers tell an even more dramatic tale:
- Democratic safe: 26% of the population
- Republican safe: 13% of the population.
- Democratic endangered: 12% of the population
- Republican endangered: 49% of the population
Even though the Democratic base in 2006 is twice the size of the Republican base, fully half of the nation is under threat of switching from a Republican Governor to a Democratic Governor (except in Texas, where the threat is mainly to switch to Independent). Another 6.5%, represented by the state of New York, has already all but switched. This goes a long way toward describing just how tremendous the Democratic opportunity is this year, and just how severe our deficit has been in Governorships since 1994. In the extended entry, I discuss both of these issues in greater detail.
The Democratic Deficit
No where are Democrats in worse shape right now than the sorry situation they find themselves at the Governor level. Right now, Republicans control 28 Governorships, and Democrats control 22. However, these numbers belie the actual size of the Republican advantage, which is much larger than the 28-22 split would indicate:
- The 28 states controlled by Republicans compose 63%, or just over five-eights, of the national population.
- There are almost no "safe" blue states with Democratic Governors. California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and Rhode Island all have Republican Governors. Among the Democratic presidential "base" sates, only Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, and Washington have Democratic Governors.
- This situation creates severe problems for the progressive agenda nationwide. Sure, controlling Governorships in conservative states like Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee is nice, but name to me a single aspect of the progressive agenda that has been furthered by the conservative Dem Governors in those states. While the conservative agenda is not significantly weakened by Democratic control of these states, Republicans controlling progressive states like California, New York and Massachusetts has greatly diminished the enactment of a progressive agenda almost anywhere in the nation. No wonder we love people like Spitzer who will be able to pursue an unabashedly progressive agenda when he becomes Governor of New York early next year. It will be the Eliot Spitzers of the world who will finally let the country see what the progressive vision actually is.
- The Republican majority in the House came from their control of Governorships. Following the 2000 election, Republicans controlled congressional maps via a trifecta in Florida (18-7), Michigan (9-6), Pennsylvania (12-7), Ohio (12-6), and Virginia (8-3). The Republican drawn maps in these five swing states contain the entire Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans hold a whopping 59-29 lead in the congressional delegation from these states, even though all of them are pretty much even in terms of voter registration and partisan voting tendencies at the Presidential level. In 2000, control of those five Governorships pretty much guaranteed that Republicans would hold a majority in the House of Representatives for the foreseeable future.
- In recent history, Governors have been more effective Presidential candidates than Senators. That Republicans have controlled the majority of Governorships since 1994 has been one of the reasons our Presidential bench has been somewhat thinned out of late. Further, even when a Governor does not run for President, they make for the strongest Senate candidates possible. Had Mark Warner decided to run for Senate instead of President, he would have defeated George Allen, and our chances at majority Senate control would have increased dramatically. In 2000, our last really good year in the Senate, former Governors in Delaware and Missouri led the charge. Governor's also appoint members of their own party to vacated Senate seats.
- Finally, Governor's appoint judges too, and while I have no stats on this, the terrible Democratic deficit among Governors for the past twelve years has probably led to a significantly more conservative state-level judiciary than existed before 1994.
Majority control of Governorships carries with it no special powers. The party with the most Governors does not become blessed with a majority leader of Governors, and the Governor of Arizona, or Kentucky, or New York does not become the head of the Governor's appropriations committee. Having the most Governors is certainly nice, but it does not result in any special powers in and of itself. However, for all of the reasons listed above, it should be clear that our current, whopping deficit in Governorships has probably created more problems for Democrats than has our deficit in the United States Congress. We will never, ever take the country back from the conservative movement unless we reverse our problems at the Governor level.
The Opportunity in 2006
Fortunately, 2006 presents us with a rare opportunity to actual make a full reversal. Our opportunities for pickups are tremendous, even generational:
- In 2006, of the 14 Governorships that are not up for election, Democrats control eight (DE, LA, MT, NJ, NC, VA, WA and WV) while Republicans control six (IN, KY, MS, MO, ND, and UT). The eight Democratic Governors also cover nearly twice the total population of the Republican states (roughly 40 million to roughly 22 million). We thus start with a stronger base than do the Republicans.
- Perhaps even better, there isn't a single "safe blue" or even "lean blue" state held by Republicans that is not up for election. We are going to be able to compete on our turf this time around. Of the six states held by Republicans, only Missouri is even a swing state. The rest are deep red.
- Of the 36 seats up for re-election, 22 are held by Republicans, and 14 are held by Democrats. Of the 22 states that I forecast could potentially change hands, 14 are held by Republicans and only 8 are held by Democrats. Republicans will clearly be on the defensive around the country
- Of the eight open seats, seven are currently held by Republicans: AR, CO, FL, ID, MA, NV and OH. Among the open, only IA is held by Democrats. The population difference puts this into even sharper relief, as Republicans will be defending states with a combined population of over 45 million, and Democrats will be defending open seats with a population of only 3 million. All of these seats, with the possible exception of Idaho, will be competitive in 2006. Even a 4-4 split would be a huge Democratic gain, but right now Democrats are doing even better than that, as they are favored in AR, CO, MA, and OH, with toss-ups in NV and IA.
- Eliot Spitzer is cruising to a huge win in New York, which already guarantees Democrats an enormous pickup.
- Almost every large state is poised to have its Governor switch parties this year. California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan could all change hands, although in Texas the most likely switch would be from R to I, not R to D. However, because Republicans already hold most of these states and most of the population of these states, even a split would be great for Dems.
Overall, even though Republicans currently hold a large advantage in Governorships, Democrats actually start in a much better position going into the 2006 elections. I forecast 15 states as either safe Democratic or Dem-held not up for election: AZ, DE, LA, MT, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OK, TN, VA, WA, WV, and WY. These 15 states make up more than one-quarter of the national population, and nearly eighty million people. By way of contrast, I forecast only 13 states as safe for Republicans or not up for election: CT, GA, HI, ID, IN, KY, MS, MO, NE, ND,SD, VT and UT. These thirteen states have a combined population only half the size of the safe Democratic states, at just about 40 million. With more safe states and more open seats to attack, 2006 has the makings of a very, very big year for Democrats. In fact, in 2006 Democrats have by far more good opportunities for substantial, sweeping pickups among Governorships than they have in either the House or the Senate.
As I wrote back in June:
The weakness of Republican Governors in large states presents Democrats with an opportunity to thoroughly reshape the American political landscape. We have waited some time for the Emerging Democratic majority to emerge, and these seven states represent our best chance to make it happen. This is our prize. This is our chance.
While in this forecast I am not as optimistic as I once was about all of the large states (Georgia no longer look winnable, Texas is a major longshot, and Florida is also a longshot), we still have a rare opportunity here. Let's make it happen.
The second part of the forecast, highlighting the twenty-two competitive races, will be posted later today or tomorrow morning.
