January forecast
Overall: In by far my best forecast for Democrats yet, right now I project a three to five seat gain in the Senate. Not enough for control, but close.
Thirty-second analysis: The good news is that our chances of making large gains look better than ever before. The bad news that that our chances of retaking the chamber actually look worse than they did before. The key races to watch right now are New Jersey, Ohio, Minnesota, Tennessee and Virginia. In a rapidly solidifying environment, changes in these five states still seem very possible. Making sure they break in our direction is key to maintaining, and improving on, the gains I have forecasted here.
Likely Pickups
Democrats: Pennsylvania
Republicans: None
Notes: Republicans do not have any seats in this category right now, and for Democrats to have a realistic shot at retaking the Senate, it needs to stay that way. However, New Jersey has a real chance to move into this category. The Democratic Party in the Garden state seems to have nine lives, but there are lots of reasons to be really worried about Menendez's chances against Kean. Of course, if Menendez survives and wins by ten ala Corzine, then I will never forecast any Democrat ever being in trouble in New Jersey again.
Already Competitive
Democrats: Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana, Ohio
Republicans: New Jersey, Minnesota
Notes: Give a big hearty welcome to Rhode Island, where
both Democratic challengers would now give Chafee serious problems (and where both would crush Laffey). Ohio and Minnesota barely maintain their standing in this category. Minnesota becomes competitive as a result of the thinning of the Democratic primary field, and Ohio almost drops out of the category because of the thinning of the Democratic primary field. In both of those cases, I think we would have been helped by a little intra-party competition. Candidates would have honed their message, raised their name ID, and generated increased on-the-ground activism statewide. Sadly, we seem to have decided that saving a few bucks is better than all of that. When it comes to primaries, I am a big believer in the free market.
Potentially Competitive
Democrats: Tennessee, Virginia
Republicans: Maryland, Michigan, Washington
Notes: Tennessee remains very close to breaking out of this category, but it isn't going anywhere until Ford's support breaks out of the low forties. Even when he gets close in the polls, it is because support for his opponents drops, not because his rises. Virginia stays in more because I am hedging my bets than anything else. Webb's entry could change the dynamic there, but we still don't know how of if it will change the dynamic. On the Republican side, Steele is
melting down in Maryland,
dropping poll numbers,
fundraising, and
staff members at a remarkable rate. The competitive Democratic primary in Maryland will also ensure that the cream of the Democratic crop will rise to the top. However, it also assures that this race will stay "potentially competitive" instead of "longshot" untilthe primary is over and we can reassess the situation. In Washington and Michigan, Cantwell and Stabenow remain safe, but just barely. Things could still change there.
Longshots
Democrats: Arizona, Nevada
Republicans: Florida, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Notes: At best, we are spinning our wheels in these two western states. At worst, we are actually losing ground in two states that were always going to be difficult. On the Republican side, I will leave Wisconsin in for two more months. If Thompson hasn't made a decision to challenge Kohl by then, I'm removing it from the board entirely. I'm keeping an eye on Florida, which I still think is
a hopeless cause for Harris, primarily for entertainment value. In Nebraska, Nelson's approval rating continues to rise (it's
68% now) and
his opponents have no money. Thus, the race has been downgraded to "longhsot" status.
Detailed Analysis
Several months ago I laid out what I saw as
the two criteria for Democrats to retake the Senate:
- 1. At least six very strong Democratic challenges to Republican held seats. (the "control" effect)
- 2. A numeric Democratic advantage of at least three when it comes to very strong challenges to Senate seats held by the other party. (the "landslide" effect)
As of this writing, I am happy to report than Democrats have achieved the second goal. In this forecast, I give Democrats a five to two advantage in the number of serious challenges to seats held by the opposing party. This three-seat advantage triggers the "landslide" effect among all competitive seats, where the party challenging the most seats becomes favored to win all, or nearly all, of these campaigns.
As Chuck Todd, through Charlie Cook, once wrote:
[A]s Charlie Cook has pointed out, Senate races never break evenly for both parties.
The key for the party that's got that little breeze at the end is putting enough races in play to win all those toss-ups. In a neutral climate, the 0-2 Democratic pickup prediction would make sense. But it's hard to foresee a neutral 2006 environment.
The makings for a Democratic advantage are brewing. There's no difference between netting three Senate seats and netting six or seven. Once the Democrats are in a position to net a third, it probably means all those slightly-leaning GOP seats are going their way and the gain will be closer to six than to two.
With a five to two advantage in competitive, "toss-up" seats, Democrats are currently forecasted to have the wind at their backs, so to speak. However, since we currently only have five Republican held seats in the "already competitive" or "likely pickup" categories, we still do not have all of the pieces in place to retake control. To do this, we need to move at least one more seat from the "potentially competitive" category into the "already competitive" category. Realistically, we need to move two more seats into the "already competitive" category.
This is where the bad news comes in. While we are looking good to gain seats, the overall Senate picture is solidifying, and the number of seats we could put in play in addition to the five we already have put in play is dwindling. In Nevada, Carter is not making up ground or money on Ensign, and I have downgraded that race from "potentially competitive" to "longshot." In Arizona, Pederson actually seems to be losing ground, and recently had some very bad press concerning his son (not good for a candidate with low name ID). In Virginia, I have kept the race at "potentially competitive," but only because James Webb has entered. However, we still do not have any indication as to whether or not Webb will actually be an effective campaigner, and this race is just as likely, if not ore likely, to be downgraded to "longshot" status as it is to be raised up to "already competitive" status. Only Tennessee has a better than 50% of chance of reaching the "already competitive" category. As I said above, that would give us the minimum number of competitive seats to retake the chamber, but realistically speaking we need at least a one-seat cushion for margin of error.
There is more bad news for Democrats when it comes to retaking the chamber. New Jersey has emerged as a far ore serious Republican challenge to a Democratic held seat than Minnesota and Maryland ever were. If Republicans can come up with even one "likely pickup," then the entire math of the forecast changes. Suddenly, Democrats would require a minimum of seven seats in the "already competitive" or "likely pickup" categories to have any chance at retaking the chamber. Looking at our options above, I am not overly optimistic at our chances of pulling that off.
