This release focuses on the final two non-demographic questions in our interview, #21-22. These may only be two questions, but we still have some surprises up our sleeves:

The tape in question is the Osama bin Laden tape. We had the good fortune of our poll being in the field both before and after the public release of the tape. As you can see, after the bin Laden tape, although it is possible much of the shift is statistical noise, the country became somewhat less upset with the direction the Christian right is taking our country. Fear works as a tool to make the country more willing to accept the platform of the Christian right. Joel will have more on this later.

We asked the same question at the end of the survey that we asked at the beginning of the survey. Interestingly, at the end of the survey, Bush's job approval actually inched up a couple of points, moving to a net of -3.1 from a net of -7.4. Considering the margin of error, this may be statistical noise. However, this is the exact same group of people who answered the first question, and around 2% of them decided they liked what Bush was doing after our interview even though they did not like it at the start of the interview. A small margin to be sure, but these days it is more than enough to swing an election.

As I already mentioned, the cause of this could just be statistical noise. However, it also could be fear: we asked a lot of "fear" type questions, and our repeated mention of things like Iraq, terrorism and Osama bin Laden may have pushed people to Bush much like the country was pushed to the Christian right after the release of the bin Laden tape. Another possibility, as Matt phrased it to me, is the "don't yell at daddy" factor. Near the end of the interview, we asked a lot of questions about investigating and possibly impeaching Bush. There may be a small percentage of the electorate who finds even asking such questions distasteful, and whose opinion can be changed through their resulting indignation.

Whatever the cause, it might be important not to over-analyze such a small portion of the electorate. Only 20 people actually changed their mind from the first question to the second, and drawing conclusions about such a small sample size would be a dangerous game for anyone interested in statistical accuracy to play.

Still, this is all interesting stuff, and it is about time that you had the entire questionnaire, cross-tabs, and even raw data available so that you can draw your own conclusions. I'll be getting that stuff out to you as soon as possible. Also, Joel will have more of his analysis of the poll up next week. I will also have a re-cap of the entire polling project later on today.