Volunteer for Ned Lamont
Donate to Ned Lamont
The primary in Connecticut will take place in almost six months--173 days to be precise-- on Tuesday, August 8, 2006. Given this, I would like to take a look back at Lieberman's poll performance in another recent Democratic primary in Connecticut over a similar amount of time. From the subscriber section of polling report:
Quinnipiac University Poll. Nov. 12-18, 2003. Statewide:"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ." N=509 Democratic voters, MoE ± 4.3
11/18 4/28
Lieberman 28 46
Dean 23 6
Others 39 36
Unsure 10 11
That is a pretty catastrophic collapse on Lieberman's part. He lost 35 points in 204 days. Importantly, this collapse occurred during a time when Lieberman was also campaigning for President full-throttle (if such a term can ever be applied to Lieberman). Also, all of his support went to Dean, another netroots fueled candidate.
So where does Lamont stack up six months out? Quinnipiac has some numbers:
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
Approve Disapprove Unsure
All 63 25 11
Dems 57 30 1315. Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Favorable Unfavorable Mixed Don't Know
All 53 16 23 8
Dems 50 20 24 617. Is your opinion of businessman Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Favorable Unfavorable Mixed Don't Know
All 2 2 3 93
Dems 3 2 1 9420. (If registered democrat)If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote?
Lieberman 68
Lamont 13
Unsure / Other 19
So Lamont is down 55 points to Lieberman, which is greater than Dean's deficit at the same point in time. More worryingly, Lieberman is well over 50.
However, looking at these numbers tells me that there is potential for a lot of movement against Lieberman, and fast. He receives 68% of the primary vote, but he has 94% name ID to Lamont's 6%. He receives 68% of the primary vote, but his approval among Dems is only 57%, and his favorables among Dems are only 50%. While this does not show that Lieberman is vulnerable yet, these numbers do show that Lamont could move up to around 30%, and push Lieberman down in the 50's, very quickly if he gets some name ID.
Lieberman has a history of sinking approval ratings during campaigns, and his performance against Dean in his home state shows that he can potentially lose a lot of ground fast. Given that, if Lamont can make this a 20-25 point deficit by June, then suddenly he is in the ballgame. Throw in an army of volunteers on the ground, and Lieberman might be in some trouble.
These may not be the numbers we wanted at first, but it certainly isn't hopeless. Volunteering is probably the best thing you can do in this race, but don't let that stop you from donating.
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