Part I: Seats we are ready to pickup
Part II: Seats where we need money
Part III: Seats where extraordinary circumstances present us with a good chance
This is the fourth and final part of the forecast. I'll post another one in a few weeks.
So far, we have looked at 30 districts. While I believe the thirty districts I have already mentioned are indeed the best chances Democrats have for pickups, there are of course other districts that could fall our way given a new extraordinary event, such as a major scandal, an unexpected retirement, or a particularly strong campaign. There also still remains the outside possibility of a major national landslide, especially given our good very good "macro" situation. We have good
recruitment, while
Republicans are not. This will allow Democrats to stretch Republican defenses much thinner than they did in 2002 or 2004 even if our national poll lead shrinks. Democrats are also doing well in terms of money, both at
the individual candidate level and in terms of
the DCCC closing the cash on hand gap with the
NRCC. Democrats also hold
the generic advantage in 2006, which will help keep their poll numbers high.
So, if there is a national landslide or an extraordinary event, here are some other districts that could go our way:
AZ-01, CA-26, CO-04, FL-08, FL-09, FL-16, IA-02, IL-11, KY-03, LA-07, MI-08, MI-11, MN-02, MT-AL, NC-08, NV-02, NJ-07, NY-03, NY-19, NY-24, NY-25, NY-29, PA-07, VA-11
Throw in VT-AL, at that comes out to 55 seats for Democrats, one more than Republicans scored in 1994. There is probably only about a 1-2% chance that would happen, but a boy can dream, can't he?
As far as vulnerable Democratic seats go, in this environment the only place to look is at extraordinary events. We may have a couple of vulnerable seats in Georgia, Jim Marhsall and Jim Barrow, because of the redistricting there. Chet Edwards may also be vulnerable in the TX-11, as a residual result of DeLay's illegal redistricting there. Most of all, first-term Democrat Charlie Melancon might be vulnerable in the LA-03, both because of the minuscule size of his margin in 2004, and because of the redistricting impact of Katrina on minority and low income voters. Also, Ted Strickland's vacated seat in OH-06 might be vulnerable if the macro situation changes dramatically, as might our recent pickups in IL-08, NY-27 and CO-03, but right now we are perfectly safe in all four
But you know what? I hope we don't spend too much money defending any of these seats anyway. Not a single one of these people, both endangered because of redistricting and our recent pickups, have proven to be very good votes (though some are better than others). Besides, if we spend disproportionate resources defending our own seats rather than a disproportionate amount of resource challenging Republican seats, we are never going to get out of minority status. Our resources need to go toward trying to win new seats, rather than trying to defend Blue Dogs. Otherwise, we are guaranteed of minority status until at least 2012.
Speaking of not defending Blue Dogs, make sure you help out Ciro Rodriguez.
That would be a pickup in and of itself.
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