First Comprehensive 2006 House Forecast, Part II
by Chris Bowers, Fri Feb 10, 2006 at 12:11:52 PM EST
Forecast Part I: Seats we are ready to pickup
In the comments to my first post on the House forecast, there were a lot of you who wanted me to discuss other seats besides the twelve I listed. As I wrote in the post, but probably should have made more prominent, "Part I" of the forecast was, well, "Part I." Because this is the first forecast, I am trying to give an introduction to each district individually. Doing this all at once made the forecast around ten pages long in Microsoft Word. If I had posted the entire thing at once, almost no one would have read it all.
There was only one criteria for being included in the last post: being a Republican held seat that we are already set to pick up. In those twelve seats, we have the money, the candidate(s), and, if the election were held right now, the votes. If I didn't list a district in the last post, I don't think we have everything in place yet. That does not mean I am not going to discuss that district today, as even after this post there will be two more parts to this series today.
This part in the series focuses on eight districts where I believe Democrats have everything in place for a pickup but where we are getting shredded in the money race. For that reason, I also think that these are eight districts that the netroots should seriously consider offering their financial support. Add eight to twelve, and suddenly you have enough seats to take the House. The seats are listed in alphabetical order in the extended entry.
In need of money:
- CT-05. Dem: Chris Murphy
There is something painfully ironic about Democrats running so many "Murphys" in competitive House districts. Like in Murphy's Law, for Democrats, if something can go wrong in an election, it usually does. Chris Murphy is challenging Nancy Johnson in this 50-50 district, where Kerry scored 52.4%, and where the Democratic performance is 49.3%. Murphy actually has some pretty darn good money too, with 382K cash on hand. Unfortunately, Nancy Johnson has $2.2M cash on hand, an amount that would make quite a few Senate candidates jealous. Johnson's warchest is unfreaking believable. Still, if Murphy can keep raking it in, and if the current national climate remains the same, Murphy can and will take this seat.
- IL-06 Dems: Christine Cegelis, Tammy Duckworth
Ahh, the IL-06, where the DCCC showed the netroots what it really thinks of grassroots and netrotots organizing. As I am sure we all know, this is a battle for Henry Hyde's open seat in a district with a Democratic performance at nearly 50%. In the current climate of large national Dem leads, this seat would be ours save for one thing: money. Roskam, the Republican in this race, has $835K cash on hand. Combined, Duckworth and Cegelis have $145K. Unless we can get more funds here, that would probably keep this seat in Republican hands.
One item of note is that, among the various insider bits of information I compiled in order to make this forecast, I have in my possession a thick dossier the DCCC compiled for a breakfast with lobbyists a few weeks ago. The dossier discusses around 30-40 districts in much the same way I am discussing them here. In all but one district, when there was a Democratic primary, both major Democrats were listed. However, in IL-06, they only listed Duckworth, pretending that Cegelis did not even exist. Bastards.
I have written extensively on this race before.
- MN-01. Dem: Tim Walz
Republican Gil Gutknecht is the incumbent in this 50-50 district. Walz has only raised $118K to Gutknecht's $476K. Even worse, Gutknecht leads in cash on hand $620K-$40K. That's what we get for not challenging districts like these with more seriousness on a regular basis. When they aren't funneling their money to other competitive districts, Republican candidates have money left over. Just look at the 2004 race in this district for an example.
This is a very winnable seat that the DCCC is willing to give a lot of money too, but Walz needs the money to make it close in the first place. $580K can buy a lot of negative name ID in this district.
- NV-03. Dem: Tessa Hafen (Las Vegas Gleaner article)
Hafen, a Reid staffer, just recently joined this race. Assuming she can get some money, this will be a good one. From the Las Vega Gleaner:
Voter registration in the third congressional district is
effectively evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. But you wouldn't know it from Porter's two successful bids for Congress, against Dario Herrera in 2002 and Tom Gallagher last year. Porter beat Herrera 56 percent to 37 percent, and Gallagher 54 percent to 40 percent. Herrera of course was a deeply flawed candidate. Gallagher was a new face on the scene who never really got a chance to introduce himself to voters before Porter's slash-and-burn team had caricatured him -- but perhaps even more importantly, voters in 2004 had yet to come to the firm conclusion that the Republicans were out of control. In any case, neither candidate brought the Democrats home in CD3.
The mood of the electorate has changed considerably since election day 2004, and some of the tactics used by Gallagher -- trying to tie Porter to DeLay and the Republican Congress and belittling Porter's mindless subservience to Bush administration policies -- should by all rights gain a lot more traction this year. And the very points that Porter will try to make through shock-and-awe televised bombing -- Hafen's youth, her connections to Reid and, by extension, the evil national Democratic Party -- could be exactly the points that make the Democrats vote for, well, the Democrat.
- PA-08. Patrick Murphy
There is another Democrat in this race, but if the DCCC can ignore Cegalis, then I can ignore Warren. (Update: Paul Lang is running for State Senate, which I probably should have noticed since I looked at his webapge before writing this). Murphy actually reaches out to the Philadelphia area netroots, and he has a large money lead over Warren and Lang. In this 53.2% Democratic performance district where Kerry scored 51.0% of the vote (and Gore snagged 52.9%, and Rendell got over 60% in 2002), Patrick Murphy has the biography, the charisma, and the broad-based support to win. He also has $1M less cash on hand than "deer in the headlights" Fitzpatrick (I heard Bob Brady joke that Fitzpatrick walks around DC looking scared and out of place). Like Ginny Schrader before him, and like everyone else on this list, the only thing that separates Murphy from this seat is money.
- OH-01 Dem: John Cranley
Back in August, Paul Hackett showed just how vulnerable the Ohio Republican Party will be in 2006. The OH-01, held by Steve Chabot, is a nearly 50-50 district where Kerry scored 49.2% of the vote (at least according to official records). If Hackett can make up 11 points in one district in Ohio, a district like this is ripe for the taking. Cranley hasn't filed a report with the FEC yet, but Chabot has $600K in the bank.This race screams pickup if Cranley can get the money.
- OH-15 Dem: Mary Jo Kilroy
Ditto everything I said about the OH-01. Kilroy has $140K on hand, while incumbent Deborah Pryce has $943K. Official counts put Kerry's total at 49.7% in this district.
Some of you might also remember this as the district where Mark Losey was running. From what I can tell, when Losey was running, the DCCC had this seat listed as a fourth tier race. With Kilroy running, they have given it a major upgrade. I don't know what to say about that, but it is disturbing that the DCCC would more or less decide to abandon a winnable district because they didn't like the Democratic candidate.
- WA-08. Dem: Darcy Burner. Update: Randolph Ian Gordon has dropped out.
This was an open seat in 2004, which Republican Dave Reichert won with 51.5% of the vote. This is clearly highly vulnerable to a Democratic challenge in 2006 if the primary winner can get some more money. Reichert has $580K cash on hand, while Gordon and Burner combine for $165K (most of that is Burner's). Like every other race listed here, the only thing that is separating this one from becoming top-tier is money.
These are eight races for which the blogosphere, the netroots, DFA and MoveOn should seriously consider bundling their donations. These eight pretty much only need money. With one possible exception, they can all except tremendous DCCC support if they start to get money. Combined with the twelve races I listed in the previous post, they would be enough for Democrats to retake Congress. These are races where we could make a big, big difference.
Later today, I will have the third part of this forecast: House races where a pickup is close, but where it will take some time before we know if the support materializes.
Tags: House 2006, money, forecasts (all tags)
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