Well, it took me an entire day, but I have finally done a comprehensive investigation into the House situation in 2006. Let me just say that this is a
lot more complicated than doing a Senate forecast, which is probably why in 2004 I just left the entire task to Jerome. Now, however, after acquiring a lot of insider data and spending twelve hours pouring over it, I feel comfortable making a House forecast. This ground work will also allow me to make updates on this forecast in less time in the future.
Frankly, I think this is a really good forecast, and I would really like you to read the whole thing. It may be my first comprehensive House forecast, and it may not be at the level of pros like Charlie Cook, but this is at least as good as any free report you will come across.
For those of you who can't be bothered to read my 2,000 word posts, I'll just cut right to the chase. I currently forecast a 12-seat gain for Democrats. This post will cover the twelve individual districts that Democrats are already in a position to win. Posts later today will cover districts where Democrats have everything in place except enough money, and districts where Democrats are close, but I don't see a Demcoratic pickup yet.
I should also mention that underlying the "micro," district level nature of this forecast is a series of positive "macro" factors in favor of Democrats. Democrats are doing very well on
generic congressional ballots (read
more on these polls here). Democrats are doing well on
recruitment, while
Republicans are not. This will allow Democrats to stretch Republican defenses much thinner than they did in 2002 or 2004 even if our national poll lead shrinks. Democrats are also doing well in terms of money, both at
the individual candidate level and in terms of
the DCCC closing the cash on hand gap with the
NRCC. Democrats also hold
the generic advantage in 2006, which will help keep their poll numbers high.
These macro factors turn many of the twelve seats I focus on here from "toss-ups" to likely pickups. If these factors were to change, obviously so would my forecast. Speaking of the forecast, the twelve districts in question are discussed in the extended entry.
These races are listed in alphabetical order.
- AZ-08. Dems: Gabrielle Giffords, Patty Weiss
This is an open seat race to replace Jim Kolbe. While there is a contested primary, Democrats lead in the money race, and in an internal poll. Throw in strong Democratic presidential performance in this district, and right now Democrats would definitely take this one.
- CA-50. Dem: Francine Busby
The special election to replace Duke Cunningham. Busby leads in the polls and in the money race. While Democratic performance here isn't great (43.8%), we look good here. I can't wait to focus on this one in March.
- CO-07. Dems: Ed Perlmutter, Peggy Lamm
An open seat race to replace perennially endangered Bob Beauprez. Apparently, Beauprez has decided that narrowly winning a congressional seat (by less than 100 votes in 2002) means that he is Gubernatorial material. Not bloody likely. The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy is already fully operational on a state level in Colorado (seriously), which accounted for our tremendous performance there in 2004. This seat has a Democratic performance of 49.8, but Kerry grabbed 51.0%. The money race is close. The only advantage for Republicans here is that they do not have a primary, while Democrats do. Then again, since such a primary will raise name ID, that might not be an advantage.
- CT-02. Dem: Joe Courtney
Rob Simmons is the incumbent in this very Democratic district. Kerry pulled 53.9% here, and Democratic performance is a shockingly high 59.8. Joe Courtney only has half the money of Simmons, but he still has a lot. If Democrats don't win in a district like this with a large generic ballot lead, then I don't know what. I'm pretty sure this is the most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican. Courtney should win here.
- CT-04. Dem: Diane Farrell
Shays holds this district for now. Diane Farrell came close last time with 48% of the vote, and she is running again. Like Courtney, she has a lot of money, though only about half of what Shays has. With much higher name ID, Farrell would take this in an election were Dems win the national popular vote in the House.
- FL-22. Dem: Ron Klein
Money, money, money, money, money. Ron Klein is challenging Clay Shaw here, and by pulling in 1.34M, he has actually out-raised him. Shaw has a little more cash on hand due to leftover money. This is a strongly Dem district, with Kerry coming in at 52.%, and Dem performance at 54.1%. Shaw might have actually lost this district in 2004 had his original opponent, Jim Stork, not suffered a heart attack. In 2006, when facing this much money in a lean-Dem district, there is no way Shaw survives in a year when Democrats carry the national popular House vote.
- IA-01. Dems: Bruce Braley, Rick Dickinson
This might be our best chance at a pickup in the entire nation. It is an open seat, with a fat 55.4 Dem performance. Kerry received 52.8% of the vote here. Also, outgoing Republican Nussle had been pushed here in the past. Throw in a Democratic lead in the money race, and we are really good to go here.
- IN-09. Dem: Baron Hill
In perhaps the closest House election in 2004, Democrat Baron Hill "lost" to Republican Mike Sodrel. Well, that was in a year when Republicans beat Dems by 2.5 nationwide. With Hill running again in 2006, I can't see him losing at a time when Democrats are leading by 9.5. The money race is tied.
- KY-04. Dem: Ken Lucas (draft site)
Blue Dog Democrat Ken Lucas is back to regain his old seat from Geoff Davis. Lucas didn't lose this seat, he just retired. After George Clooney's father lost to Davis in 2004, I guess Lucas decided he didn't like retirement so much. Lucas barely held on in 2002, but in the current election climate, this seat is decidedly lean-Lucas.
- NM-01. Dem: Patricia Madrid
Heather Wilson is being challenged by New Mexico AG Patricia Madrid for this always competitive seat. A recent poll showed the race tied, but that isn't a good sign for an incumbent this far out. This seat is slightly lean Dem, as Kerry scored 51.% here, and the Dem performance is 50.2. If the election were held right now, I'm very confident that Madrid would take it.
- PA-06. Dem: Lois Murphy
Murphy is well positioned to raise her 49% performance in 2004 over 50% this time around. Both her and Gerlach have a ton of money, but after two very close calls the last two elections, there is simply no way Gerlach would survive an election where Dems significantly up their share of the national vote. Kerry scored 52% of the vote in this rapidly trending blue, RINO filled district.
- TX-22. Dem: Nick Lampson
Tom DeLay is going down. This is a super red district, but Richard Morrison showed in 2004 that DeLay was vulnerable, and now Nick Lampson has led in multiple non-partisan polls (see here and here for examples) Oh yeah--and DeLay has a strong third party challenge in this race from a former Republican congressman. I don't know how long we will be able to hold this district once DeLay is gone, but I think it is fairly safe to say that DeLay will, in fact, be gone.
As I already mentioned, in the current election environment, there isn't a single seriously threatened Democratic seat. If Democrats move a national vote deficit of 2.5% to an advantage of 9.5%, there will not be a single seat that they won in 2004 that they will lose in 2006, barring some major scandal or something. The election environment could change, of course, but this forecast is for right now. I forecast all twelve of these seats switching to D's, and no Republican pickups at all. That would make the House 220-215, since Democrat
Peter Welch is going to win VT-AL for a thirteenth "pickup."
