Monday 2008 Thread
by Chris Bowers, Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 11:34:45 AM EST
I don't mean to be writing so much about 2008, but the thing is that the 2008 Presidential field will be set, or close to set, far, far earlier than the 2008 Senate picture. In a very real way, what happens in the Presidential scene over the next two months will have more impact on the race than anything that happens before September of 2007. Setting the field and the primary schedule puts the pieces in the place. From that point, the game will move quite slowly for a number of months.
Anyway, with that justification in place to make me feel a little better, here is the latest 2008 news:
- Kerry has significantly delayed his decision on whether to run in 2008:
The Massachusetts Democrat is now leaning toward waiting until late spring before declaring his intentions, even as other candidates jump into the race and begin building organizing and fund-raising teams in early-primary states. Before the joke derailed his comeback, Kerry had signaled that he would decide whether to run by the end of January.
A delay of this extent strikes me as Kerry leaning strongly toward not running. He must be waiting to see exactly who makes up the field, and if there is any kind of opening at all. To push back a decision on whether to run by three or four months is, in the modern environment, akin to not running. I, for one, hope he stays in the Senate, thereby making those huge warchests certain ultra-safe Democratic Representatives in Massachusetts seem even more pointless than before.
- Joe Biden, never a favorite around these parts, steps in something pretty foul during a recent trip to South Carolina. Corrente and MyDD's Laurin from SC have more.
I have repeated written that I am keeping an open mind on the 2008 field, and that I believe any Democratic candidate has the potential to step up and become the type of leader I would seek to follow during the campaign. However, this kind of behavior just makes me wish that Biden would drop out / decide to not formally run. Bragging that Delaware was a slave state? The guy already represents a state with only 7% of the population of Pennsylvania, yet he has power equal to any Pennsylvania Senator. Wasn't that level of injustice large enough for him already before he had to bring up memories of things like the three-fifths compromise? Will he next brag that Delaware is a wholly owned subsidiary of MBNA? The only way Biden wins the nomination is if the only voters were Sunday morning talk show hosts. Please, go away.
- The DNC is trying to institute an incentive based system to prevent frontloading in the primaries:
In February, the whole Democratic National Committee will vote to ratify or reject the idea. The proposal, which is designed to provide an incentive for states to schedule their contests later in the process, goes like this:
- States holding 2008 primaries between February 5 and March 31 -- known as stage 1 -- will get no bonus delegates.
- States with contests between April 1 and April 30 -- stage 2 -- receive a 5 percent bonus for staying in that time period.
- States with contests between May 1 and June 10 -- stage 3 -- will receive a 10 percent bonus for staying in that timeframe.
- At the same time, if any state in stage 1 moves to stage 2, it receives a 15 percent bonus. Finally, if a stage 1 or 2 state moves into stage 3, it receives a 30 percent bonus.
There was little dissent at the meeting today, according to party officials, but stay tuned to see if this actually prevents a free-for-all in the always-contentious primary calendar.
- As I noted last night, Daschle is out, and Bayh is in. Hotline on Call looks at the makeup of Bayh's staff, if you are into that sort of inside baseball.
Bloomberg08 I mean Unity08 seems to have their main man interested in a possible run. Atrios is just as excited as I am about this wonderful possibility of corporate centrists saving the peasants from destroying the nation. It now seems possible that, should neither the Republican nor Democratic primaries go the way LieberDems like, the 2008 Presidential election could very well be the sequel to the 2006 Connecticut Senate race. A Theocon--LieberDem--Movement Candidate three way race is not outside the realm of possibility. Thankfully, Democrats now (narrowly) control the outcome if the race is thrown into the house of Representatives (we control 26 state delegations).
Expect large fields on both the Democratic and Republican sides in 2008, given that this is the first time since 1928 that none of the sitting President, Vice-President, or Eisenhower is running. The field is, at least seemingly, wide open, just like this thread.
Tags: President 2008, John Kerry, Tom Daschle, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Unity08, primary elections (all tags)
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