MyDD :: 35 Closest House Races '06 w/Poll

35 Closest House Races '06 w/Poll

by Predictor, Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 02:46:10 PM EST

In the 2006 House Races, the Democratic Party picked up a total of 31 seats (incl. VT-AL). Unfortunately we missed picking up seats in 19 very close contests, by less than 10,000 votes in each District. We ended up short by 88,577 votes or an average of 4,662 votes per District. By contrast our candidates won 16 seats in districts by less than 10,000 votes. We captured/held those 16 seats by a total of 82,480 votes for an average of 5,155 votes per District.
Some have asserted that if the DCCC had reacted to some of these races and provided necessary funding, we could have picked up more seats. Others have claimed that the DCCC did the best it could with the resources on hand and the fact that the RNCC had to pour money & resources into normally safe Gop Districts, benefited us Nationwide.

I'll let ya'll come to your own conclusions about that, because the purpose of this Diary is more from a Statistical/Tactical Perspective for 2008 regarding the lessons we've learned from the 2006 Midterms.
Caveat: Races won by over 10,000 votes (either side) are not included in the Parameters of this Study, though any number of those could be in play in '08, plus many other seats may be on the horizon that were not in-play in 2006.
On the same note, many of these races shown below may not be close for us in '08, but are sure to get some attention.
More below the fold, Enjoy!.

1. CT-02

Courtney-D    121,248    50.002%
Simmons-R    121,165    49.998%
Margin= +83 D

2. NC-08
Hayes-R    60,926    50.01%
Kissell-D    60,597    49.99%
Margin = +329 R

3. FL-13

Buchanan-R 119,309 50.008%
Jennings-D 118,940 49.992%
Margin = +369 R

4. NM-01

Wilson-R 105,986 50.02%
Madrid-D 105,125 49.98%
Margin = +861 R

5. GA-12

Barrow-D 71,651 50.3%
Burns-R 70,787 49.7%
Margin = +864 D

6. WY-AL

Cubin-R    93,336    48.3%
Trauner-D    92,324    47.8%.
Rankin-Lbt    7,481    3.9%
Margin = +1,012 R

7. OH-15

Pryce-R 110,714 50.2%
Kilroy-D 109,659 49.8%
Margin = +1,055 R

8. PA-08

Murphy-D 125,667 50.3%
Fitzpatrick-R 124,146 49.7%
Margin = +1,521 D

9. GA-08

Marshall-D 80,660 50.55%
Collins-R 78,908 49.45%
Margin = +1,752 D

10. OH-02

Schmidt-R    120,112    50.45%
Wulsin-D    117,595    49.39%
Noy-NP 298    0.13
Condit-NP 76    0.03
Margin = +2,517 R

11. NJ-07

Ferguson-R    98,399    49.43%
Stender-D    95,454    47.95%
Abrams-WTD    3,176    1.6%
Young-Lbt    2,046    1.02%
Margin = +2,945 R

12. PA-06

Gerlach-R 118,807 51.9%
Murphy-D 115,806 48.1%
Margin = +3,001 R

13. NY-25

Walsh-R-C 110,525 50.8%
Maffei-D 107,108 49.2%
Margin = +3,417 R

14. NV-03

Porter-R    102,232    48.5%
Hafen-D    98,261    46.6%
Silvestri-Lbt    5,157    2.4%
Hansen-I    5,329    2.5%
Margin = +3,971 R

15. FL-16

Mahoney-D    115,832    49.55%
Foley (Negron)-R    111,415    47.66%
Ross-NPA        6,526    2.8%
Margin = +4,417 D

16. NY-19

Hall-D-WFP 100,119 51.2%
Kelly-R-C 95,359 48.8%
Margin = +4,760 D

17. IL-06

18. Roskam-R 91,382 51.35%
Duckworth-D 86,572 48.65%
Margin = +4,810 R

18. VA-02

Drake-R 88,777 51.27%
Kellam-D 83,901 48.73%
Margin = +4,876 R

19. NH-01

Shea-Porter-D 100,691 51.3%
Bradley-R 95,527 48.7%
Margin = +5,164 D

20. KY-03

Yarmuth-D    122,489    50.62%
Northrup-R    116,568    48.18%
Mancini-Lbt    2,134    0.9%
Parker-I    774    0.3%
Margin = +5,921 D

21. WI-08

Kagen-D 141,570 50.95%
Gard-R 135,622 49.05%
Margin = +5,948 D

22. IA-02
Loesback-D 107,683 51.52%
Leach-R 101,701 48.48%
Margin = +5,982 D

23.CO-04

Musgrave-R    109,732    45.61%%
Paccione-D    103,748    43.12%
Eidness-Lbt    27,133        11.28%
Margin = +5,984 R

24. NY-29

Kuhl-R-C 106,077 51.46%
Massa-D-WFP 100,044 48.54%
Margin = +6,033 R

25. CT-04

Shays-R    106,510    50.96%
Farrell-    99,45    47.58%
Maymin-Lbt     3,058    0.15%
Margin: + 7,060 R

26. WA-08

Reichert-R 129,362 51.46%
Burner-D 122,021 48.54%
Margin = +7,341 R

27. KS-02

Boyda-D    114,139    50.6%
Ryun-R    106,329    47.1%
Tucker-F    5,094        2.2%
Margin = +7,810 D

28. AZ-05

Mitchell-D    101.838    50.4%
Hayworth-R    93,815        46.4%
Severin-I    6,357        3.1%
Margin = +8, 023 D

29. FL-22

Klein-D    108,688    50.9%
Shaw-R    100,663    47.1%
Evangelista-I    4,254    2.0%
Margin = +8,025 D

30. NY-26

Reynolds-R-C 109,257 51.98%
Davis-D-WFP 100,914 48.02%
Margin = +8,343 R

31. CA-04

Doolittle-R    135,818    49.1%
Brown-D    126,999    45.9%
Warren-Lbt    14,076        11.28%
Margin = +8,819 R

32. OH-01

Chabot-R 105,680 52.25%
Cranley-D 96,584 47.75%
Margin = +9,096 R

33. PA-04

Altmire-D 124,674 51.9%
Hart-R 115,394 48.1%
Margin = 9,280 D

34. MI-07

. Walberg-R    122,348    49.93%
Renier-D    112,665    45.98%
Hutchinson-Lbt    3,788    1.55%
Horn-UST            3,611    1.47%
Shwarz-R(WI)            2,614    1.07
Margin =+ 9,683 R

35. IN-09

Hill-D    110,454    50.02%
Sodrel-R    100,469    45.48%
Schansberg-Lbt    9,893    4.5%
Margin = +9,985 D

These Election Results are based on Certified Election Returns from the individual States' Secretary of State/Board of Elections Sites,or in the case of Illinos, the two County sites, Cook & DuPage, as the State site is pitiful.(The Commonwealth of Virginia site gets an A++)
Should anyone come up with varying results, please feel free to post them and the source info, so that it can be verified.
Percentage calculations are rounded and may not add up to 100.000%. If anyone would like the links to SOS BOE sites for each/any race, please ask and I will provide in a Comment reply.
Originally posted on Daily Kos on 12/18/06,some typo errors regarding vote totals and percentages have been since corrected there and here.This was also posted at Swing State Project on 12/19/06.
Thanks for any input.

Poll

Votes: 9
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: 2006 House Election, Election Results 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 5 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: 35 Closest House Races '06 w/Poll (3.00 / 1)

Republicans won most of the close races in 1994: 25 of them under 10,000 votes. We should have picked up another ten or twelve seats.

Part of the reason is that the NRCC invested in more of these 35 races and invested more money. The DCCC invested in only nine races (out of 62 where it spent independent cash) where the NRCC did not also participate. Only one of the nine (Nancy Boyda in KS-2, makes this list; Dan Seals who lost by 13,000 votes comes close. Ciro Rodriguez was a good move. The other six races were, in retrospect, mistakes or early expenditures to scare off Republican challengers. John Salazar, Allyson Schwartz, Bennie Thompson and Jim Mattheson won easily. Peter Goldmark was a reasonable shot. Lewis Katz? Can anyone outside of the blogs or the state of Ohio even identify him?

We were outspent and outgeneralled but thank God we were close enough and right enough on what mattered to win the House.

by David Kowalski on Thu Dec 21, 2006 at 01:23:31 PM EST

Re: 35 Closest House Races '06 w/Poll (none / 0)

Twenty-two campaigns out of 435 districts across the country qualified for the exclusive program, which provides financial and structural aid to the strongest Democratic candidates in the country. The program will introduce donors to new, competitive campaigns in order to help expand their fundraising base. DCCC

I wish I had saved the original Red to Blue list, and also the revised one issued 2 weeks prior to the Election.
But off the top of my head I can think of the following Candidates that were early on the list and they didn't make it:
IL-06 Duckworth, Lois Murphy PA-06, Jennings FL-13 (subject to change), VA-02 Kellam, Madrid NM-01, Derby NV-02,et al.
I'd really like to see how many of the 22 targeted for funding by the DCC actually succeeded. (Wow only 22??).

"If you want others to be happy, practice compassion. If you want to be happy, practice compassion." Dalai Lama

by Predictor on Thu Dec 21, 2006 at 02:51:14 PM EST

The Original 22 on DCC's Red to Blue (none / 0)

The DCC's list of 22 Red to Blue (Winners in Bold)

the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has chosen the first batch of 22 House challengers for inclusion in their coveted Red-to-Blue program...:

Won(10):
Joe Courtney (Conn. 2nd)
Brad Ellsworth (Ind. 8th)
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y. 20th)
Baron Hill (Ind. 9th)
Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio 15th)
Ron Klein (Fla. 22nd)
Harry Mitchell (Ariz. 5th)
Chris Murphy (Conn. 5th)
Heath Shuler (N.C. 11th)
Peter Welch (Vt. At-large)

Lost (12):
Darcy Burner (Wash. 8th)
Phyllis Busansky (Fla. 9th)
Francine Busby (Calif. 50th)
John Cranley (Ohio 1st)
Jill Derby (Nev. 2nd)
Tammy Duckworth (Ill. 6th)
Diane Farrell (Conn. 4th)
Steve Filson (Calif. 11th)
Tessa Hafen (Nev. 3rd)

Ken Lucas (Ky. 4th)
Patricia Madrid (N.M. 1st)
Lois Murphy (Pa. 6th)

Roll Call

"If you want others to be happy, practice compassion. If you want to be happy, practice compassion." Dalai Lama

by Predictor on Thu Dec 21, 2006 at 04:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Original 22 on DCC's Red to Blue (3.00 / 1)

Great find on the original red to blue list.

Sorry to be a nitpicker but Mary Jo Kilroy lost.

Including VT in the red to blue program is also misleading. In no way was Bernie Sanders a Republican and he voted as more of a progressive than the vast majority of Hopuse Democrats. Welcome to the Senate, Bernie.

So, that's an eight for 21 record, under 40%.

by David Kowalski on Thu Dec 21, 2006 at 08:05:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Original 22 on DCC's Red to Blue (none / 0)

Oh shit thanks, thats what I get for cut n pasting! LOL.

"If you want others to be happy, practice compassion. If you want to be happy, practice compassion." Dalai Lama

by Predictor on Thu Dec 21, 2006 at 08:25:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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