Granted, I'm a NYer, so my perceptions are warped, but I really think that the rest of the country hasn't seen enough of him to really feel comfortable voting for him, and once they have, they won't.

Besides being a  NYer, and Catholic, and divorced, pro-gay, and pro-choice, he's also somewhat short, somewhat funny looking (not truly telegenic), and has a lisp. I think that all of those, in combination, are going to doom him as a candidate once he starts appearing regularly on people's TV screens.

Then there's the Ray Kelly issue, his bout with prostate cancer, etc.

I never hated Guiliani as much as many because I didn't live in the city for much of his, ah, reign. But I was here on 9/11 and, yes, he got props from me for urging people to not react out of hate and fear because "hate did this." And yes, he was much more articulate than Bush. But then, who isn't?

I find it baffling that he's considered a  candidate with an actual shot at winning the nomination.

(To clarify, I don't really care that he's a NYer, or that he's Catholic, or that he's divorced. And hooray for moderate Republicans that stick to their "liberal" positions. It's just that, the way this country has been trending, I can't not see his stances, combined with his, ah... attributes?... as not being problematic, cumulatively, long-term.)

The GOP field sucks eggs. It really does. McCain's not a really good candidate in the primaries, but I can't see any of the others grabbing the mantle. Brownback's too out there, Romney's already having huge problems, Giuliani is too socially liberal and makes the Bush corruption look normal, Huckabee's just got a huge hole to climb out of and can't line up the big-money donors necessary for him to have a chance ...

Really, it seems strange to say, but Newt actually would have a decent shot at coming out of this, if the GOP primary season was in any way democratic. But it's not, so McCain will probably line up all the money support now that Romney is having troubles, and he'll stumble across the finish line propped up by the Rangers and Pioneers of the GOP.

The GOP primary is probably going to be extremely uninspiring.

The key contests (assuming no one else moves up) will be Florida, Michigan, and South Carolina. McCain has an inside track in Michigan (w/ possible Romney challenge), Giuliani would win Florida, and South Carolina up for grabs.

Unlike the CW, I think Giuliani can win (not necessarily predicting that he will win) the GOP nomination for two reasons: (1)money, and (2)his celebrity status has consistently absolved him from having to meet the same ideological litmus tests as other candidates.

John McCain is probably the most successfully oversold brand in politics.

The only advantage Dems are gaining on McCain now is that Obama is now sucking some of McCain's oxygen out of the media's adoring elite.

I would imagine that North Carolina actually has more delegates than New Jersey and Missouri.  Making it the 3rd largest state on Feb 5.

NC is the 11th largest state.

On related news, an NBC/WSJ poll finds that at this very early stage McCain leads Hillary and Obama, but McCain trails Edwards:

In some head-to-head match ups, McCain leads Clinton by four points (47 to 43 percent) and Obama by five points (43 percent to 38 percent). But — in an interesting twist — the Arizona senator trails Edwards by two points (43 percent to 41 percent).

Edwards, at this very early stage, also leads in Iowa:

Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina and the winner of the 2004 caucuses, was picked as the early preference of 36 percent of likely caucusgoers in the survey.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York came in second with 16 percent.

Third was Sen. Barack Obama with 13 percent, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack trailed in fourth place at 9 percent.

Again, it's very early, which is why the article notes the following:

Some elements of the race have changed since the poll was completed. Vilsack has formally announced his entry, Clinton has begun reaching out to Iowans, and Obama last weekend traveled to New Hampshire.

The key contest, IMO, comes on August 11, 2007.  The Iowa Straw Poll annoints the Republican front-runner based on money, money, more money and connections.  It cost $25 to cast a vote (paid by the campaigns) and these days campaigns also pay for busses, meals, and other goodies.  In 2000, only two candidates could actually compete there: W and Steve Forbes.  W got 50% and that made him the front-runner.  The other pols got out of Iowa and even though W limped home with 41% in the caucuses, he was set.

W spent the spring and early summer lining up money and making nice to corporate types particularly in areas like oil and chemicals.  This is now the approved route with a little courting of the fundies.

Since the wingers outdrew Bush decisively in the actually caucuses (Forbes 30%, Keyes 14%, Bauer 9% for a total of 53%), somebody like Brownback can easily win the caucusses.  But unless they have 5 or 10 million floating around they have no chance in the more important straw poll.

Rudy can get the money and so, perhaps, can Romney or Pataki.  I don't see two New Yorkers really competing so it should be a New Yorker, Romney, and McCain.  Arnold would have this sewn up but the US Constitution keeps him out.  I don't see McCain pulling it off.

I actually like his chances to be at least a "player" in the '08 race.  The crazies are going to rally around someone.  I dont think that "someone" will be Romney because of his social-liberal past.  The only other option apparent now is Huckabee.  I think that Brownback's strong identification with the Christian right, and the geographic proximity between Kansas and Iowa, gives him the best  chance of winning the "Christian Right" caucus in Iowa.  

If he wins Iowa outright, he will be well positioned for February 5th.  Several states will have a large vote from Christian conservatives, e.g. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, and West Virginia.  An Iowa win, which will generate a lot of cash, will make Brownback very competitive in these states; competitive enough that the race will be far from over at that point.

Can he win the nomination?  I doubt it.  I say this not because of his positions on social issues; those wont be what kills him.  Rather, he seems to be setting himself up as a "dove" on Iraq.  As the war is still relatively popular among conservatives, this position will allow McCain to eat away at his conservative support.  Also, Brownback will lose some support among conservatives to an "anti-inmigration" candidate as he is pretty moderate on this issue.