Glad To Be Wrong Thread
by Chris Bowers, Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:36:57 AM EST
What a wonderful end to the election season! And truly unexpected. I am actually a little glad that I was so horribly wrong about both LA-02 and TX-23, since my head was getting a little big after by scary-accurate predictions of the House back on November 7th. I needed to be reminded that elections are ultimately unpredictable--which is one of the reasons why you need to fight tooth and nail until the end. Here are some thoughts on Crio's victory tonight:
- Democrats now have 233 seats in the 110th congress, more than Republicans have had since 1952. the Republican "revolution" never secured this large a majority in the House. We beat them. We did better than they ever did. So much for the vaunted Republican political machine, which recorded record voter contacts, record fundraising, and record early voting this cycle. With their best effort, we beat them harder than they ever beat us. With FL-13, we could make our total in the House 234.
- This seat is Ciro's to hold until redistricting. He beat an incumbent pretty badly tonight, and now he is once again an incumbent Democrat from a majority minority district. With Latinos making up ore than 50% of the registered voters in this district, this one isn't going back to Republicans for a long time. Considering Ciro's strong voting record, the TX-23 will be a cornerstone of a blue majority for a long time to come.
- The first news source in the nation to call the election? Burnt Orange Report. How cool is that? Local blogging is the way of the future, and Burnt Orange Report has always led the way when it comes to first-rate local blogging. Their prediction was not based on partisan leanings, either. Rather, it was based on hard analysis of where the where the early votes were coming from.
- Speaking of blogs, how odd is it that both Crio Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar will be in Congress next year? Didn't see that one coming. Henry Cuellar might also take a lesson from Crio now--no need to be conservative in order to hold now a district in Texas. We bloggers might also take a lesson too--just because we think the reason a candidate lost becaue he was a poor campaigner, doesn't mean we were right. Ciro won this race easily, even though few us in the blogerati thought he had a chance. And so another netroots candidate wins, even though we did not back him like we should have in this election.
- Take that, Republican vote suppression tactics. Holding this election on a Mexican holiday was probably designed to drive down Democratic turnout. Instead, it sent Democratic turnout well beyond Republican turnout. To quote Nelson Muntz: "ha-ha." It should also be a lesson to those progressives who think that Republicans are perfectly adept at stealing elections: we are not facing an all-powerful force that can manipulate time and space. Here is a clear case where Republican attempts to swing an election utterly backfired.
- How's that Dailykos / MyDD / Swing Sate Project page looking now? Eight challengers will be in Congress next year. One other, Ned Lamont, rocked the political world with his primary victory (and the vast majority of money we raised for him came in the primary). Five others--Darcy Burner, Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Gary Trauner, and Linda Stender--came within 1-2% of victory. Consdering that we only targeted candidates who, at the time of our endorsement, were considered second tier challengers, that is pretty fucking amazing. Our second tier target list performed at least as well as the top-tier target list of most party committees and advocacy organizations (DSCC excluded). I look forward to continuing to confound the experts next cycle.
- You want to know why pundits will continue to call this a conservative victory? Because so many politicians and media types have spent so long sucking up to conservative institutions--K Street and the Republican Noise Machine--that turning back now and calling this election cycle a progressive victory would means years, if not decades, of wasted investment. People who owe their access and their careers to conservative institutions are not about to throw everything away because one of measly election. We will only achieve a progressive America when politicians and media types are spending more time sucking up to progressive institutions--academia, unions, even the blogosphere--than they are to conservative institutions. Quite frankly, it is a miracle that we managed a progressive majority with the institutional forces lined up against us. That miracle was found in people-power.
Woo-hoo! Victory is sweet. It is almost sweeter when it is unexpected. Well done, Representative Rodriguez. It is great to have you back.
[Update from Matt: I will just say that I didn't know this district at all and didn't see this coming, but it's just awesome to capture number 30. Rahm Emanuel made a gutsy and good call to work this district with a lot of resources. He should get credit for this one.]
Tags: TX-23, Ciro Rodriguez, progressive movement, 2006 elections, House 2006 (all tags)
You are not logged in.
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.