Glad To Be Wrong Thread

What a wonderful end to the election season! And truly unexpected. I am actually a little glad that I was so horribly wrong about both LA-02 and TX-23, since my head was getting a little big after by scary-accurate predictions of the House back on November 7th. I needed to be reminded that elections are ultimately unpredictable--which is one of the reasons why you need to fight tooth and nail until the end. Here are some thoughts on Crio's victory tonight:
  • Democrats now have 233 seats in the 110th congress, more than Republicans have had since 1952. the Republican "revolution" never secured this large a majority in the House. We beat them. We did better than they ever did. So much for the vaunted Republican political machine, which recorded record voter contacts, record fundraising, and record early voting this cycle. With their best effort, we beat them harder than they ever beat us. With FL-13, we could make our total in the House 234.

  • This seat is Ciro's to hold until redistricting. He beat an incumbent pretty badly tonight, and now he is once again an incumbent Democrat from a majority minority district. With Latinos making up ore than 50% of the registered voters in this district, this one isn't going back to Republicans for a long time. Considering Ciro's strong voting record, the TX-23 will be a cornerstone of a blue majority for a long time to come.

  • The first news source in the nation to call the election? Burnt Orange Report. How cool is that? Local blogging is the way of the future, and Burnt Orange Report has always led the way when it comes to first-rate local blogging. Their prediction was not based on partisan leanings, either. Rather, it was based on hard analysis of where the where the early votes were coming from.

  • Speaking of blogs, how odd is it that both Crio Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar will be in Congress next year? Didn't see that one coming. Henry Cuellar might also take a lesson from Crio now--no need to be conservative in order to hold now a district in Texas. We bloggers might also take a lesson too--just because we think the reason a candidate lost becaue he was a poor campaigner, doesn't mean we were right. Ciro won this race easily, even though few us in the blogerati thought he had a chance. And so another netroots candidate wins, even though we did not back him like we should have in this election.

  • Take that, Republican vote suppression tactics. Holding this election on a Mexican holiday was probably designed to drive down Democratic turnout. Instead, it sent Democratic turnout well beyond Republican turnout. To quote Nelson Muntz: "ha-ha." It should also be a lesson to those progressives who think that Republicans are perfectly adept at stealing elections: we are not facing an all-powerful force that can manipulate time and space. Here is a clear case where Republican attempts to swing an election utterly backfired.

  • How's that Dailykos / MyDD / Swing Sate Project page looking now? Eight challengers will be in Congress next year. One other, Ned Lamont, rocked the political world with his primary victory (and the vast majority of money we raised for him came in the primary). Five others--Darcy Burner, Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Gary Trauner, and Linda Stender--came within 1-2% of victory. Consdering that we only targeted candidates who, at the time of our endorsement, were considered second tier challengers, that is pretty fucking amazing. Our second tier target list performed at least as well as the top-tier target list of most party committees and advocacy organizations (DSCC excluded). I look forward to continuing to confound the experts next cycle.

  • You want to know why pundits will continue to call this a conservative victory? Because so many politicians and media types have spent so long sucking up to conservative institutions--K Street and the Republican Noise Machine--that turning back now and calling this election cycle a progressive victory would means years, if not decades, of wasted investment. People who owe their access and their careers to conservative institutions are not about to throw everything away because one of measly election. We will only achieve a progressive America when politicians and media types are spending more time sucking up to progressive institutions--academia, unions, even the blogosphere--than they are to conservative institutions. Quite frankly, it is a miracle that we managed a progressive majority with the institutional forces lined up against us. That miracle was found in people-power.
Woo-hoo! Victory is sweet. It is almost sweeter when it is unexpected. Well done, Representative Rodriguez. It is great to have you back.

[Update from Matt: I will just say that I didn't know this district at all and didn't see this coming, but it's just awesome to capture number 30. Rahm Emanuel made a gutsy and good call to work this district with a lot of resources. He should get credit for this one.]



Display:


Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

Think you great the blogs would look if people wouldn't have sit out challenging Emanuel with Cegelis.

Next cycle, people should fight first and ask questions later. Hells Angels rules!


Bob Brigham Blog
by Bob Brigham on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:45:15 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

Think HOW

after a few years of doing this, the carpal tunnel is killing me, my fingers are not doing what I expect them to.


Bob Brigham Blog
by Bob Brigham on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:48:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

definitely a sweet victory.  the stunning thing, though, is the margin.  some theories for what explains the discrepancy between the polling and the results:

1) the NRCC was decapitated and gutted after nov. 7, which explains the absence of NRCC involvement

2)  the likely voter model for rasmussen was faulty

3)  the D-trip's added muscle

4) some combination

i really want to hear the breakdown on this, because this was an absolute catastrophe for bonilla.  total breakdown.


by beyondo98 on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:50:43 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

My money's on the pollsters' likely voter model being flawed. Wasn't it SUSA rather than Rasmussen, though?


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:16:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

i don't recall.  you might be right.


by beyondo98 on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 11:15:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

Actually, 233 is more seats than the Republicans have ever held since the "do nothing" congress of 1946-1947.
http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics /congress.htm

Celebrate!  And on to FL-13.


John McCain Opposed Expanded GI Bill
by hilltopper on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:53:50 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

Of course we do not know why everyone voted the way they did, and voter turnout clearly played a big role.  But I just want to put out there the notion that with Bush's poll numbers now at 31 percent, and the public dislike of the war at historical (i.e. Vietnam) levels, people in the district saw Bonilla as a big, fat, tool for Bush and his failed policies.

I bet if they held a FL-13 revote right now that Buchannan would get trounced by Jennings.


Better Progressive Messaging www.progressivemovement.net
by parmenides on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:23:10 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

Chris Bowers is a national treasure.


by Ethelred on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:25:06 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (3.00 / 3)

We bloggers might also take a lesson too--just because we think the reason a candidate lost becaue he was a poor campaigner, doesn't mean we were right.

This doesn't necessarily prove Ciro is a good campaigner yet.  The DCCC spent something like $1.5m the past few weeks in TX-23, and by all/most accounts pretty much ran every aspect of the campaign.  That's not to say that Ciro shouldn't get credit for his win - of course he should - but I think in this case, it is clear the DCCC came through with major assistance, and they deserve a good deal of credit this time.


Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:27:51 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (3.00 / 1)

Ciro also raised a million bucks this election cycle.  His first campaign, like this one, started slow and closed fast.  This campaign, however, was pushed over the top with DCCC money.  The first campaign lacked that extra oomph and didn't quite make it.

A lot of the real surprises this cycle came from candidates who outperformed their money.  If the DCCC had shoveled more money into some of those races we would have done even better.


by David Kowalski on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:40:11 AM EST

Their political machine is mostly better (none / 0)

They still won 14 of 23 races within 2000 votes.

But their ideas are incredibly unpopular.  As The Carpetbagger Report points out, the way the Iraq War is being fought is now more unpopular than gay marriage, ending the death penalty, legalizing pot, and banning handguns.

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/arc hives/9320.html

Can you imagine if the Democratic party were loudly and proudly in favor of any of those?

So I think we can do even better, as our side continues to improve on stuff like GOTV and fundraising.    


John McCain: Healthcare for Kids? In America? No way
by bosdcla14 on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 01:58:01 AM EST

Re: Their political machine is mostly better (none / 0)

I'm not sure you can say that. Yes, they won the majority of the very close ones, but that doesn't necessarily mean their political machine is better. First, 14 of 23 isn't any sort of huge majority ... a race here and a race there and you're at parity.

I think it's like record in one-run games in baseball ... mostly luck of the draw. What that fact really means is that they still have more vulnerable incumbents to go after ...


by BriVT on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 06:32:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Their political machine is mostly better (none / 0)

It's easier to steal 2000 votes than 20,000


by antiHyde on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 07:31:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

It's also possible that the Democrats cuting the earmarks out of the budget before the election played some roll in this result.Since Rodriguez won in a number of counties they expected to go for Cuellar.  


by orin76 on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 02:33:53 AM EST

Tear (3.00 / 2)

Such kind words, you make me blush Chris.
Follow Texas Politics at Burnt Orange Report
by KTinTX on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 04:51:27 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

"Eight challengers will be in Congress next year. One, Ned Lamont,..."

In my universe, Ned lost to Republican surrogate Joe Lieberman.


by antiHyde on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 07:33:31 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (none / 0)

You're misreading the paragraph.  It first says that 8 of the netroots challengers won their races.  It then goes on to mention 6 who lost, but were notable for other reasons.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 10:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good lord we are happy with ourselves today (none / 0)


the 109th congress was incapable of doing even the very most basic job it was hired to do. this disturbs me, as a voter, regardless of partisan victory.

I believe firmly that this historic election is a turning point. I am excited by the possibility that one day a third party may arise, being an independent. However, the democratic party's rapid embrace of the internet and its newfound 50 state strategy makes me hopeful that such states as my own, georgia, and texas, will see more focussed initiatives as the victory last night in TX-23 so easily proclaims.

I am very happy and thankful for this election and as a simple voter and a somewhat activist I am proud that my money on webb's campaign, as well as others - was well spent.

please understand, however, that there is a machine in America - that simply feeds on inactivity and a wierd sense of evangelism and destruction of the constitution, be it 4th, 1st, even our right to emminent domain.  They were in power calling themselves conservatives, and are gone.

But that machine feeds on the destruction of america - just as al qaeda feeds on such idiocy as iraq.

If we are, as a country to really party - lets party when we hit the first 100 hours and come out with a victory unlike any other.


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 08:23:54 AM EST

huh? (none / 0)

 


Invest in nature
by NCDem on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 10:36:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No (3.00 / 1)

LULAC, no TX-23. Even Rahm would agree.


by dblhelix on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 11:19:22 AM EST

Re: Glad To Be Wrong Thread (3.00 / 1)

I meant to post last night, but that didn't happen.

My hispanic neighbor had a Bonilla sign, and there were about 30 of those signs at the polling station.  I don't recall seeing a single Ciro sign.  There was also a Bonilla van at the polling site.  So, it wasn't looking that good.  But I was the only white voter in line, so that was a good sign.  And when I asked my non-political but very conservative Southern Baptist friend who she was voting for (after reminding her there was an election) she said she was voting for the guy who was falsely accused of being pro-terrorism.  

Apparently, Bonilla's commercials had a huge effect, just not the one he wanted.


by skintigh on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 03:11:23 PM EST

great anecdote (none / 0)

i was really hoping those would backfire. thanks for sharing. =)


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 10:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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