MyDD :: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 09:47:23 PM EST

The early numbers look good out of Texas-23 according to the Associated Press.

Democratic former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez held a strong lead Tuesday over Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla as they battled for a congressional seat in a runoff election.

With more than half the precincts reporting in the state's largest district, Rodriguez was leading Bonilla 57 percent to 43 percent.

More details to come...

Update [2006-12-12 21:49:39 by Jonathan Singer]: With 55.43 percent of precints reporting, former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez leads incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla 30,408 (56.84%) to 23,089 (43.16%).

Update [2006-12-12 21:53:29 by Jonathan Singer]: With 67.42 percent of precints reporting, Rodriguez's lead is up to 32,243 (57.25%) to 24,077 (42.75%). The Burnt Orange Report says it's in the bag and it appears they may be right.

Update [2006-12-12 22:5:14 by Jonathan Singer]: The AP calls it for Ciro.

Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican Henry Bonilla in a runoff election Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress.

Update [2006-12-12 22:19:19 by Jonathan Singer]: With 79.40 percent of precincts reporting, the numbers are tightening -- but not likely enough to put Bonilla over the top. Currently, Rodriguez holds a lead of 35,239 (55.38%) to 28,398 (44.62%).

Update [2006-12-12 22:46:22 by Jonathan Singer]: And with 95.13 percent of precincs reporting Rodriguez is up 37,250 (54.54%) to 31,044 (45.46%).

Tags: TX-23, House 2006, Ciro Rodriguez (all tags)

Permalink :: 27 Comments :: Post a Comment

BOR has called it for the Good Guys (3.00 / 1)

Our Texan friends at Burnt Orange Report have called the race for Rodriguez, based on their knowledge and analysis of the county-by-county vote.

by DaveMB on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 09:54:32 PM EST

AP Calls It- CIRO WINS!! (none / 0)

"Bonilla loses House seat after 7 terms"

SAN ANTONIO - Former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez defeated seven-term Republican Henry Bonilla in a runoff election Tuesday, adding another Democrat to Congress.

by marksist on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:00:18 PM EST

Scheduling backfires on GOP? (none / 0)

The state chose to schedule the special election on the day of the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe, an important holiday for Mexican-Americans. Various commenters at Kos are speculating that having the election on a day when Mexican-Americans were gathering in large groups, and perhaps encouraging each other to vote, did not work so well for them...

by DaveMB on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:03:02 PM EST

Re: Scheduling backfires on GOP? (none / 0)

Especially when the Republicans were making such a blatant attempt to disenfranchise hispanic voters by choosing the holiday....

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:09:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Scheduling backfires on GOP? (3.00 / 1)

And in a district they had to redraw because it violated the Voting Rights Act, no less.

Ain't no stoopid like an arrogant Texas Republican.

Before you win, you have to fight. Come fight along with us at TexasKaos.

by boadicea on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 11:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Looks like Ciro gets to go back anyway, eh :)

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:10:03 PM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (3.00 / 5)

now that we've won ANOTHER congressional seat, i demand that howard dean be fired.

www.adamconner7.com

by Adam Conner on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:16:41 PM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Can't we please bring back Terry Mcauliffe?

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:18:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Exactly my thought. I so miss losing every cycle.

by raginillinoian on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:49:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is Harold Ford Jr. available? (none / 0)

yeah that's kind of a cheap shot ... but Carville was the one that dragged Ford's name into it.

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 11:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

now what i want to know is, what caused the bonilla melt-down? i mean, the guy was up in the polls, handily even. of course the polls were horseshit because there's no such thing as an accurate likely voter model in this situation. but damn were those polls off. why did the NRCC back away completely?

if i had to guess, everyone at the NRCC got fired on november 8th and they didn't have the juice to put forth even minimal effort in retaining this seat. but that's just my speculation. anybody got a better idea for why this happened the way it did?

by beyondo98 on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:27:52 PM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

I think a lot of the difference between the final numbers and the poll numbers that had Bonilla up by about 5 points is the Hispanic turnout. The turnout models for the polls showed disproportinately low turn out for Hispanics- who overwhelmingly favored Ciro- and my guess is that they turned out proportionately or nearer so.

by AC4508 on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 11:08:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Border fence (none / 0)

The Hotline says Bonilla's vote for the border fence hurt him a lot.

DC Drinking Liberally • DC for Democracy

by KCinDC on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 11:34:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yup yup (none / 0)

many latino families in texas are of mixed status: documented and undocumented. the immigration fiasco was seen as a direct attack on the latino family unit. and if you know anything about latino culture, you do not mess with peoples' families. latino outrage over the stupid fence and the other immigration crap was directly reflected in the vote today.

Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!

by annatopia on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:38:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Unbelievable! Time to celebrate.

And as Chris wrote long ago, with 233 seats, the Dems now have more seats than the R's have EVER had in 50 years. It smells like a mandate and a complete rejection of the Republican agenda.

John McCain Opposed Expanded GI Bill

by hilltopper on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:32:00 PM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Yes well, Democrats have a higher standard for victory.

We had 295 seats after the 1964 election.

by raginillinoian on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Yeah, there was a little something else going on that year. What was it? Oh, yes, Johnson's 44-state landslide against Goldwater.

That'll tend to do it every time.

by craverguy on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Blue Wave Finds It Way To Texas (none / 0)

Another tremendous victory and hopefully a sign of things to come for 2008.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:44:14 PM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Congratulations to Ciro Rodriguez on winning the seat and to the voters of TX-23 as they will now get a Congressman that fights for their values!

by TheBlueWarriors on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 10:58:10 PM EST

this is huge, yall (3.00 / 2)

i don't know if i can adequately explain how significant this victory is. bonilla was (oh how i loved typing that) a serious power player here. he's been in office since i moved to this state, and he is seen as incredibly formidable. his name comes up in gop circles every time the statewide elections roll around.

the redistricting saved our butts in this one. the gop is so hated by latinos here now after the immigration firestorm. but beyond that, this race was a great example of what can happen when the local grassroots, netroots, state institutions, and national institutions are on the same page.

Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!

by annatopia on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 11:33:49 PM EST

Bye bye, Bonilla! (3.00 / 1)

I'm glad to see the guy go simply because he wanted to make DC rename 16th Street to Ronald Reagan Boulevard, aside from all his other bad qualities.

DC Drinking Liberally • DC for Democracy

by KCinDC on Tue Dec 12, 2006 at 11:37:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (3.00 / 1)

Congrats to Ciro! I didn't think he could do it, but it looks like the holiday played a huge factor, congregating large groups of Mexican-Americans together in churches (where the polling places are).

So Ciro lost to Cuellar (twice), Cuellar lost to Bonilla, and Bonilla lost to Ciro...that's some kind of rivalry brewing right there...

The Dems now have more seats in the House than the Repubs have held at any point since 1946 (insert Dean scream here)!

by dpinzow on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:11:04 AM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Slight correction: The GOP had 236 seats by Oct 1996 because of defectors. In the 1994 elections the Republicans only won 230 seats though.

Conclusion: Let the GOP defections begin!

by marksist on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 12:24:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Problem is... (none / 0)

...the Republicans most likely to defect have already been wiped out in the election. I can't think of a serious possibility in Congress. Maybe Shays? But he's been acting pretty crazy lately, so then again, maybe not.

by Angry White Democrat on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 02:24:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

Another blue district.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 02:20:28 AM EST

Re: Dems May Yet Pick Up Another Seat in the House (none / 0)

So Ciro lost to Cuellar (twice), Cuellar lost to Bonilla, and Bonilla lost to Ciro...that's some kind of rivalry brewing right there...

The Dems now have more seats in the House than the Repubs have held at any point since 1946 (insert Dean scream here)!

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