With Republicans forces to defend 21 Senate seats in 2008, Democrats are going to have an abundance of potential races to look at -- so much so that they are going to have to make hard decisions about what races actually make sense to make serious investments of time and resources in. Preference, of course, should be given to the more Democratic-leaning states, those in which the Republican incumbent is not popular and those where a retirement makes it easier to pick off a seat, but that is not to say that the Democrats should overlook states that don't meet those criteria. As is the case almost every year, one race will likely come out of nowhere in the later stages of the 2008 cycle -- just as Virginia did this year and Kentucky two years earlier -- and the Democrats best be prepared to make the most of the situation by finding credible candidates in all 21 states the Republicans will be defending in two years.
This brings us to Alaska, where outgoing Senate president pro tempore Ted Stevens, who has served in the Senate for just shy of 38 years, will face reelection in 2008. On the surface, there is little reason to look at Stevens. The senior Senator has a fairly strong approval rating of 62 percent that has been fostered over his years in Washington by helping bring home the bacon, which he could likely continue to do even in the minority should his Republican Party fail to retake the Senate in 2008. This fact will not likely be lost on Alaskans, who are no doubt mindful that their junior Senator, Lisa Murkowski, has served only since 2002 and thus has significantly less clout to secure earmarks for local projects. Beyond all of this, Alaska is, and has been for many years, a Republican state; it has not delivered its electoral votes to a Democrat since 1964 and has not elected a Democrat to the House or Senate since the 1970s.
So in the absence of a scandal or a remarkable flub on Stevens' part, it's going to be difficult for the Democrats to win in Alaska in 2008. Yet we may be seeing the beginnings of the type of scandal that could provide an opening for the Democrats to at least put yet another Republican seat in play in two years. Richard Mauer has the story for the Anchorage Daily News.
The director of a Juneau-based salmon fishing group said last week he has been ordered by a federal grand jury investigating Alaska corruption to turn over lobbying and consulting records involving state Senate President Ben Stevens and former congressional aide Trevor McCabe, an Anchorage lawyer.The grand jury subpoena, issued last month, also seeks records on the Alaska Fisheries Marketing Board, a nonprofit federal-grant distribution corporation set up by Ben Stevens' father, U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens.
In a telephone interview Thursday from Seattle, [board executive director Robert] Thorstenson said the subpoena to Southeast Alaska Seiners Association arrived last month after he was contacted by agents from the FBI and the National Marine Fisheries Service. The subpoena said the grand jury was investigating felony crimes, Thorstenson said.The subpoena appears to document a widening of the federal corruption investigation in Alaska, which burst into public view in August with dramatic raids of the offices of six legislators, including Ben Stevens. Agents returned to search Stevens' offices Sept. 18.
[...]
The material seized from Stevens in September, including documents related to the seiners association and the marketing board, suggested a widening of the probe into his lucrative fishing consulting business, though the government has not cited any specific crimes it is investigating.
Both the marketing board's creation and the seiner organization lobbying directly involve earmarks inserted into federal legislation by Ted Stevens. There is no indication that agents are investigating Ted Stevens, the senior Republican in the U.S. Senate. Stevens himself has declined to comment on the investigation.
Ben Stevens was the board's initial chairman when it was created in 2003 until he resigned April 19, and McCabe, Ted Stevens' former legislative director, has served on its board of directors also since its creation. The board has distributed millions of dollars of federal funds to fishery companies, including several that paid consulting fees to Ben Stevens. Stevens was recently fined $300 by the Alaska Public Offices Commission for failing to disclose his membership on the commission for two years.
Ben Stevens has reported receiving $775,435 from nine fishing companies and associations since he was appointed to a vacant state Senate seat in 2001. Except to describe his services as those of a business consultant, he has never publicly said what he has done for the money.
There is certainly precedent for voters throwing politicians out of office for the misdeeds of their relatives -- particularly when those misdeeds are related to cashing in on the actions taken by their relatives. Most recently, GOP Rep. Curt Weldon was defeated handily this year, in no small part as a result of the widening corruption probe into the lucrative lobbying contracts he may have helped his daughter secure. At the same time, the Weldon scandal broke during the waning weeks of the campaign whereas the story surrounding Stevens is starting to become public today, 23 months out from election day.
Yet as this story continues to develop -- and, at least on the surface, it appears to have legs -- it could provide just enough of an opening for the Democrats to put the Republicans further on the defensive and perhaps allow them to steal another seat. But as I wrote above, the Democrats need to recruit a candidate who is at least credible and hopefully has at least some statewide name recognition and fundraising capability. Former two-term Democratic Governor Tony Knowles' name certainly comes to mind, but he has lost the last two state statewide elections in which he has run (2004 Senate, 2006 Governor) and might not want to take on another longshot run. Another potential Democrat who might be more willing to take a stab at Stevens could be Ethan Berkowitz, the state representative who served as Knowles running mate in the 2006 gubernatorial contest and thus has at least some name recognition.
But even if the Democrats look outside of these two pols, it would not be a bad idea to spend at least some time trying to find a decent candidate. Because, who knows, this race could come out of no where to shock everybody in 2008.
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