The Senate seats whose terms are up in 2008 are as follows:

Ted Stevens (R) - Alaska

Jeff Sessions (R) - Alabama

Mark Pryor (D) - Arkansas

Wayne Allard (R) - Colorado

Joe Biden (D) - Delaware

Saxby Chambliss (R) -- Georgia

Tom Harkin (D) -- Iowa

Larry Craig (R) -- Idaho

Richard Durbin (D) -- Illinois

Pat Roberts (R) -- Kansas

Mitch McConnell (R) - Kentucky

Mary Landrieu (D) -- Louisiana

John Kerry (D) -- Massachusetts

Susan Collins (R) - Maine

Carl Levin (D) - Michigan

Norm Coleman (R) - Minnesota

Thad Cochran (R) - Mississippi

Max Baucus (D) Montana

Elizabeth Dole (R) - North Carolina

Charles Hagel (R)- Nebraska

John Sununu (R) - New Hampshire

Frank Lautenberg (D) New Jersey

Pete Domenici (R) - New Mexico

James Inhofe (R) Oklahoma

Gordon Smith (R) Oregon

John F. Reed (D) Rhode Island

Lindsey Graham (R) - South Carolina

Tim Johnson (D) - South Dakota

Lamar Alexander (R) - Tennessee

TX John Cornyn (R) - Texas

VA John Warner (R) - Virginia

John Rockefeller (D) - West Virginia

Mike Enzi (R) - Wyoming

A careful perusal of the list reveals a number of basic facts.

1. 20 out of the 33 seats are being defended by Republoican incumbants. So the GOP has to actually defend more seats than the Dems do.

2. The number of seats for the Dems who are at-risk basically is limited to Mark Pryor, Tim Johnson and Mary Landrieu. Of the three, I'd rate Landrieu as the most endangered Democratic incumbant, followed by Johnson then Pryor. [I'll explain why Max Baucus isn't in my list of endangered Dems below]

3. The number of GOP seats at risk is higher.

-- Susan Collins is in a very solid blue state, and cannot count on the Democrats running token opposition against her as they did against Olympia Snowe this year.

[Gov. Baldacci anyone?] -- Norm Coleman is, in my view, the TOP pick up oportunity for the Dems in 2008. [A Senator Franken would be awesome, to say the least]

-- And, the ONLY way the GOP stands a chance of retaining that seat in Virginia is if John Warner runs again. And even then I think Mark warner might be able to beat him. Mark Warner would surely defeat any other Republican who might run.

-- Wayne Allard in Colorado has to be sweating absolute bullets right now after the way the Democrats swept the state over the past couple of elections. He already has a high profile Democrat challenging him in Mark Udall. But others will surely consider it.

-- Even Pete Dominici may be at risk in New Mexico. If Gov. Bill Richardson foregoes a Presidential run, or is not on the ticket in 2008, he might run for that seat and would be a very formidable opponent for a Senator who has not run in a competitive election in over a decade.

-- In Kansas, Pat Roberts has to be shitting a brick right now. If Popular Democratic Governor, Kathleen Sebelius decides to challenge him in 2008 I think he's toast. [In fact, I think we should all encourage Gov. Sebelius to run against his ass].

Certainly there may be a few wildcards. Frank Lautenburg may retire again. As may Carl Levin of Michigan, although in Levin's case he is the incoming Chairman of the Senate Anmed Services Comittee, so unless he's got health problems, I think he's not going anywhere. Plus, if he does decide to retire, I am fairly certain that Gov. Jennifer Granholm will run for his seat.

You do also have the prospect of potentially open senate seats in Delaware and Massachusets to contend with. But I think the Dems can probably keep those seats.

If I had to guess I''d say that Mary Landrieu will get knocked off but that Pryor and Johnson will suirvive challenges. I think Norm Coleman will get taken out, as will Wayne Allard. That's a net 1 seat Dem pickup in the senate right there if everything else stays the same. But, I also think Pat Roberts could go down in Kansas as may Susan Collins. I can see recently reelected Gov. Baldacci maybe challenging Collins.

Of the seats we picked up on Tuesday, I do not see any of them being at any serious risk of returning to the GOP fold barring a major scandal. The only one that gives me pause is Claire McCaskill. But Sheldon Whitehouse will hold that seat as long as he wants. As will, I think, Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey, Jr., and John Tester. And who's got the chops on the GOP side challenge Jim Webb? I think Montana, state wide, is becoming more blue every day. That's why I didn't put Max Baucus on the endangered list, even though former Gov. Mark Racicot is the odds on favorite to challenge him in 2008.

So, at worst, I think the Dems break even in 2008 in the Senate and retain narrow control. If there is a very good Democratic ticket, and we win the Presidency, I see the Dems picking up maybe 2-3 more Senate seats.

What do you all think?

UPDATE: Kos Diarist Hawesdawg also posted on this topic earlier. And focuses on New Hampshire, which I neglcted to list as a potential poick up opportunity for the Dems as well. The Granite state turned a deep shade of blue on Tuesday, and that makes incumbant Senator John Sununu an at-risk Republican. So add him to our list!

ANOTHER UPDATE: I should probably revise my comment about Delaware. If Biden runs for President, and leaves that seat open (barring a state law change similar to the one allowing LIberman to run both for VP and Senate at the same time), I think former Governor Mike Castle jumps into the race. And he would be the odds on favorite, probably, to take that seat for the GOP.

Now, whether Castle runs depends on his health. He recently suffered a stroke. Although, they didn't prevent him for running from runing for reelection to the House.

The most intriguing possibiliuty with Castlke, however, is that he switches parties and becomes a Dem now that the Democrats control the House. If he does, he could run as a Democrat for Biden's seat, and probably ensure we retain it. So, who knows!