Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories

Cross-posted at Future Majority.

I've had time to sift through what data is available from Young Voter Strategies and CIRCLE.  The bottom line is this - youth turnout increased for the third straight year, and millenials chose Democrats over Republicans by 22 percentage points (60%-38%) - more than double any other age demographic.

Democratic Preference by Age Demographic
WAVE2

In Montana, where Jon Tester beat out Conrad Burns, I'm hearing that young voters made up 17% of the electorate and that their swing towards Democrats may have been the deciding factor in Tester's election.

If this is a wave election, that wave is being fueled by young voters and their growing allegiance to progressive politics.  

Here's what we know so far based on exit polls, preliminary precinct reporting, and census data from March 2006:

(Some of this information I received via email and conference call from people at CIRCLE and YVS, and isn't yet available online.  So sorry if this is a little light on links.  In the coming days I will post more updates as new data becomes available.)

TURNOUT

  • At least 10 million 18-29 year olds voted yesterday(pdf). This is 2 million more than voted in 2002, and 1.4 million  more than 1994.  As more data comes in, this number is expected to rise.

  • Our turnout rate was 24%.  This is an increase of 4% from 2002(pdf).  As more data comes in, this number, too, may rise.  

  • Our share of the electorate increased from 11% to 13% (pdf).  Millenials are increasing their turnout rate faster than any other demographic, and rising turnout across the board in 2006 makes this number all the more impressive.

Most importantly:

  • In 36 "youth dense precincts" in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin - which were targeted by the student PIRGS - turnout was 6x the national average.

Conclusion: Young voters are increasingly engaged and are becoming a force in electoral politics.  If you ask us to vote we will, and our growing numbers could be the difference in elections across the country.  If this trend continues, young voters may hand us the presidency in 2008.  

PARTISANSHIP

  • Young voters chose democrats over republicans by 22% points (60% to 38%).  This is more than double every other demographic.

  • A pre-election poll indicates that young voters were highly dissatisfied with Bush, but they generally had more positive feelings about their conrgressperson.

Conclusion: Young voters are a huge asset for progressives, but, just like in 2004 when we cast our ballots against Bush (but not for Kerry), this was a vote for change.  A vote against Bush, not for the Democrats.

TACTICS
In 2004, youth groups sent a drum beat of messages to the media - peer to peer, face to face contact was the way to reach young voters.  That strategy has come to fruition this year.  

  • When CIRCLE reports on the effectiveness of GOTV tactics, it will report that boots on the ground, face to face contact was the most effective way to reach youth in 2004.
  • Social Networking and Text Messaging - the media darlings of this cycle - will be shown to have played only a small part in getting out the vote.  

Conclusion:  It takes a cycle or two for folks to learn how to use new strategies.  What limited data we get on text messaging and social networking will get put to good use tweaking our strategies.  Look for these tools to either live up to the hype or die in 2008.

SUMMARY
Research shows that if you can get a young person to vote for your party 3 major elections in a row - you'll have 75% of those voters for life.  Right now we've seen two elections where Millenials are turning out and making significant contributions to the progressive movement.   We're turning out in bigger and bigger numbers, and as more of us turn 18, we're becoming a larger share of the electorate.  

If you ask us to participate we will.  Now its up to the democratic party, and all the instruments of progressive politics, to reach out to our generation and help bring as many of us into the movement as possible.  This means more money put into young voter programs, more training, more internships - genuine investments in building the infrastructure to engage and train Millenial voters.  

This is the future progressive majority  in action, let's secure it for generations to come.



Display:


Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

I wonder how much that MySpace voter registration push had to do with it?  Seems like that could be a reasonable source of young voter enthusiasm.  Being quite a political junkie myself for sometime I have been registered and participating since 18 (now 20).. but I know even on my campus there was a large push for voter registration.. oh and not even just MySpace.  

There are many political based groups on facebook.  Seems like new technologies have tuned my peers into the obligation of making a statement and  participating in elections.

Also I have many friends in Iraq, and I know people who have siblings,friends etc.. (who are young) come back from Iraq injured.  This war is hitting home for our youth possibly fueling the upward trend in young voters.


by Bryan DEMocracy on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 08:33:02 PM EST

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

From what I hear, data is going to show that it paled in comparison to traditional GOTV tactics, yet it's still unclear to me whether there was really enough data - or that the data was take from the right campaigns - to fully judge this.

I'm hoping that it will show some modest gains for very little investment of time and money.  

The real test will be 2008 - candidates will have the time to build friend lists and trusted networks,  and really execute this model as it was meant to be executed.

On the issues - top three for young folks are education costs, the economy/jobs and Iraq.  Neither one is really that dominant in terms of level of concern.


Youth to Power
by Mike Connery on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 08:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

Idiot to Useful ratio on MySpace is waaaaay too high for it to be really effective even before Murdoch bought it, though I'm sure it helps at the margins some.


by MNPundit on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 01:56:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

Up until about 5 years ago I used to work with high school age males as a youth organization leader (a well-known conservative oriented group).  These guys were very politically savvy even at that point, and very liberal.  I'm not surprised to see these numbers, and I trust this generation much more to make sane decisions than I trust my own GenX (i.e. lambs to slaughter).

One lack of savviness I should pass on though, few of these guys believed that rascism existed anymore.   (They attended HS is a liberal U-town.)  I suspect they've learned better since then, but I think their naivete is hopeful, because their school was very integrated and yet apparently color blind.


How is John McCain different than John Edwards?
by The lurking ecologist on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 10:16:23 PM EST

My husband, the sage... (3.00 / 1)

Comment he just made when I read some of this post to him: "Jon Stewart is making our inroads for us."

He might have something there...


My MA blog: Left in Lowell
by lynne on Wed Nov 08, 2006 at 10:24:33 PM EST

Your husband is so right (none / 0)

Have you read the story in this week's Rolling Stone? Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert are "America's Anchors" and they've done a terrific job at exposing congress's lapses over the years in a the way that traditional news outlets dismiss.  


People should not be afraid of their governments, governments should be afraid of their people - V is For Vendetta
by BlueCheese on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 09:36:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

I'm really proud of the Young Democrats of America (YDA) on this stuff.  
They've done an amazing job the last 3 cycles (04, 05 gov races, and now '06) and they're just getting stronger.  Their new website www.yda.org also rocks.  

I know here in Nebraska the young democrats (www.nebraskayoungdemocrats.org) are the driving force for change and for the kind of upset candidates we've had here like Scott Kleeb and Jim Esch.  


by johnowens2 on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 12:04:41 AM EST

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

If you look at the youth mobilization projects that CIRCLE studied, such as the Student PIRGs' New Voters Project (http://www.newvotersproject.org), the thing that drove big voter turnout was good old-fashioned grassroots outreach - peer-to-peer phonebanking, canvassing, etc.  Most campaigns don't put any energy into doing this kind of basic peer-to-peer GOTV work targeted at young voters.  Hopefully these compelling new numbers from CIRCLE will convince campaigns and candidates to start putting resources into building a youth base.

While the national polls showed youth skewing toward the Dems yesterday, neither party has youth locked up, not by a long shot.  Most of the polling by CIRCLE and other groups shows that young voters mostly lack a strong party attachment, so they're very much up for grabs.  And the state polls showed youth supporting GOP candidates in particular races.  Both parties are going to have to work for it if they want the youth vote.  (Of course, being with the New Voters Project, a non-partisan project, I've got no opinion on the matter either way.)


by Bill Mason on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 01:48:38 AM EST

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

Obviously fascinating and hopeful statistics but there seems to be far more hidden than revealed.

Would have loved to see a breakdown by education, economic status, region and ethnicity.  

They liked their congressperson but not John Kerry? What was that about?

Do they understand that Al Gore's Social Security lockbox is absurd and nearly as destructive as Bush's monstrous privatization?  

So many questions.

I suspect that the forces of reaction represented in its fullest lethal form by Bush are nearly spent.  But that by itself does not lend substantial hope for the future.

Thanks for posting.

Best,  Terry


by terryhallinan on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 05:38:01 AM EST

We need to do better... (3.00 / 1)

and we can. I learned a lot working in the field this election. One of the most important things I learned is that we miss out on a lot of young votes on election day. Why? Because many of these people are away at college, but registered to vote at their parents' home. We need to make an aggressive push in 2008 to put absentee ballots in their hands well in advance of the election.

Persons aged 18-22 who are listed as registered at the same address as their parent are very likely (I'd guess 75%) to be college students not actually living with their parent. All registered Democrats (or unaffiliateds in a household with a registered Democrat) in this group should be sent applications for absentee ballots well in advance of the election.

Call the parents ahead of time, ask for the voter's contact information at school, tell them we wan to make sure their son or daughter does not have to take time away from their studies to vote. Parents will appreciate that! Then send them an absentee application and follow up with them.

This would not be difficult to do but would likely net us thousands of votes in close races.

[The same applies to the elderly. Every registered Democrat over the age of 75 should be encouraged to vote absentee. We shouldn't have to try to drag infirmed 85 year-old ladies to the polls at 7:00 PM on election day.]


by rebop on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 09:43:52 AM EST

Youth tips the senate (none / 0)

Rock the Vote has some more exit polling on this in Rolling Stone.


People should not be afraid of their governments, governments should be afraid of their people - V is For Vendetta
by BlueCheese on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 10:13:17 AM EST

If we choose Obama in '08 (none / 0)

this wave will only grow and hold steady until 2020.

Obama is the youth candidate, a political rock star. The Michael Jordan of politics.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Thu Nov 09, 2006 at 03:23:28 PM EST

Obama in '08 ?? (none / 0)

I think you are right, about his rock star status, but do you really think he has a chance at the money?  Bill Clinton is the biggest fundraiser in the party's national structure and all that money is earmarked for presidential elections.  If Bill got run over by a truck maybe it might happen, yeah it might.  Until then, im my mind the best he can hope for is the second spot on the ticket with Hillary.

Hillary, among young women, has the highest name recognition of any politician.  She has to go next time before time squanders the unique place she has in the conciousness of young women.


Aloha Politics dot com
by Keoni on Fri Nov 10, 2006 at 01:46:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Youth Turnout Fuels Democratic Victories (none / 0)

I can hardly wait for the same process to energize women a group.  I think that 2008 will be a test for those that want to push the process.


Aloha Politics dot com
by Keoni on Fri Nov 10, 2006 at 01:39:01 AM EST


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