Lots of potential retirements that we need to be ready for, even in safe states (eg, get ready for the Mass primary).

Geezers and aspirants:
Stevens (AK)
Biden (DE)
Roberts (KS)
Kerry (MA)
Levin (MI)
Cochran (MS)
Lautenberg (NJ)
Domenici (NM)
Dole (DC)
Inhofe (OK)
Warner (VA)
Rockefeller (WV)

If I were Norm Coleman I'd be horrified at the prospect of being targeted by Al Franken's campaign commercials. The guy used to write political satire for freakin' Saturday Night Live, back when SNL was actually good. He'd have to give up his radio show when he becomes a candidate, but his celebrity and netroots support, as well as the strong, strong, strong newfound DFL presence in Minnesota should make it a pretty easy pickup, maybe of the Casey-Santorum variety.

Paging Dean Smith.

He's earned a lot of political goodwill with Dems across NC in recent cycles. And he's not a Shuler -- an empty vessel for the DCCC to inflate. Erskine Bowles would have been a good Senator, but his campaigns were crippled by his media people. I think Dean Smith is happier working from the sidelines, if you pardon the metaphor, but NC's there for the taking.

I'd have to go with Mike Easley: he's term-limited in 2008, and though his approval ratings have hovered around 50%, Liddy D has done little to endear herself to the state.

A few things:
Collins may retire, prompting this up to tier 1. That is, at least, what she said she would do when running in 1996 and 2002.

Cornyn is pretty unpopular... With a strong, well-funded candidate like Houston Mayor Bill White, this would become instantly competitive.

Levin may retire... another defense seat.

Dole may retire... another opportunity here.

In Alabama, word is that Congressman Artur Davis may run, though he could be eyeing Shelby's seat for 2010.

It is possible that Rockefeller will retire, though he is not nearly as old as Byrd.

Cornyn's race has underrated potential to be a dark horse.

Bob Kerrey's old seat is actually Nelson's, but point taken. Hagel's a difficult Senator to defeat. I think it can be done, however, I don't know if our strongest candidates will want to challenge him.

Scott Kleeb is my favorite choice for 2008 Senate. Though he came up short in Nebraska's 3rd, he's a strong candidate, and I think he'd carry Lincoln and Omaha by substantial margins.

Lautenberg insists that he's going to run for re-election, despite the fact that he's older than Methuselah.  The Republicans only chance of beating him is U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.  Any other Republican candidate is dead in the water.

The whole notion that "we have a problem with New Jersey" should have been debunked when two straight cycles state voters reaffirmed their blue leanings late in the process. I'm not worried.

Hmm.  Are you sure Warner's retiring for sure?  Hadn't heard that.  That said, I'd bet on at least several retirements on the Republican side just due to the unpleasantness of having to go out and fight a big blue wave when even if they fend it off they stay in the minority.  So I wouldn't be surprised by retirements of folks like Warner, Roberts, Domenici and several others that are just unguessable at this point.

FYI- Allard's seat will be contested by Mark Udall from CO-02.  He announced it a while back and is part of a politically royal family in the Mountain West.  Wouldn't mind seeing Tom Udall run for Senate in New Mexico at the same time.

Democratic Seats-
Tossup-
Louisiana- Landrieu narrowly won re-election in 2008. plus loss of minority voters in NOLA.

Leans Democratic
New Jersey- possible retirement- look for US Housemembers- Pallone,Andrews,Holt,Rothman to succeed old Frank.

Iowa- Harkin always faces tough race but ends up surviving.

Michigan- possible retirement- with the exception of Granholm and Stupak and Kilpatrick.- the Democratic bench is too thin.

Montana- competive if Rehberg runs. Baucus should win handily otherwise.

South Dakota- I will move that race to tossup if Rounds runs-

Democratic Favored
1)Arkansas- Pryor is a household name if Arkansas plus- Democrats will occupy every statewide office in Arkansas- By 2007 Democratic Governor/Lt Governor- 3/4 of the US House Delegation and the State Legislature is controlled by Democrats.
2)West Virginia- I doubt Rockefeller retires before Byrd is around.

Safe
1)Biden(DE)- seat is vulnerable if Biden gives up that seat to run for higher office
2)Durbin(IL)
3)Kerry(MA)- any Democratic US House member can hold on to the seat if it opens- Capuano,Meehan,Lynch.
4)Reed(RI)

Republican Seats
Tossup
1)Allard(CO)-narrowly won re-election in 2002. State is trending purpleish blue- top tier Democrat- Mark Udall.
2)Coleman(MN)- narrowly won in 2002- which was a fluke-. any Democrat other than Al Franken can unseat Norm.
3)Sununu(NH)- NH is trending blue- Sununu was narrowly elected in what was a questionable election. Lynch or Sheehan. to challenge Sununu.

Leans Republican
1)Collins(ME)- seat becomes a tossup if Collins retires.
2)Domenici(NM)- seat becomes a tossup if Domenici retires.
3)Dole(NC)-extremely vulnerable if Easley runs.
4)Smith(OR)- if a top tier candidate like Kitzhaber or DeFazio runs. Tossup
5)Warner(VA)- Warner has to retire and the other Warner has to run.

Likely Republican
1)Stevens(AK)- possible retirement but it is less likely a Democratic could win a Senate Seat in Alaska.
2)Chambliss(GA)- Georgia is trending red. it is less lik
3)Roberts(KS)- sames thing as Alaska.
4)Cochran(MS)- same thing as Kansas
5)Inhofe(OK) same thing as Kansas

Safe
1)Sessions(AL)
2)Craig(ID)
3)McConnell(KY)
4)Hagel(NE)
5)Graham(SC)
6)Alexander(TN)
7)Cornyn(TX)
8)Enzi(WY)

Harold Ford-TN is more likely to run for Governor in 2010 than challenge a well entrenched incumbent like Lamar Alexander.

Larry Craig safe?  Maybe, maybe not.  See my diary on Larry Grant for Senate in 2008.  Craig's been around a long time, and I can see him maybe taking a pass on the next election.  It's tough to go from the majority to the minority, to being powerful to powerless.  He could make a lot of money in the private sector, and if there is any truth to his alleged "outing," he might decide to move on to greener pastures.  He might decide to anyway, if the Dems look like they'll hold on to the senate in '08.  I'm just saying, we need to get a good candidate, just in case.  That's what the 50 state strategy is about, right?  

What do you think?  Larry v. Larry in 08?  Check out my diary at here or at dailykos, and recommend at dkos so more people will tell Larry G. we need him in the senate.  

Rob Andrews will be the next senator from New Jersey. He has the largest war chest and was not opposed this election. He'll win in a cake walk.

If Joe Biden runs for President, that seat will be open. And the most likely GOP contender for that seat is former Governor, and current House member, Mike Castle.

Castle recently suffered a stroke, but recovered enough to run for and win reelection to the House.

And two years in the House Minority, where you might as well be a piss boy, may enourage him to rin for the Senate.

Johnson won his last race (against John Thune) by the hair on his balls -- something like 500 votes.

Hey, I'm as psyched as anybody here about the repudiation of the Forced Childbirth law, but that don't exactly make SD a blue state.

I will also grant that we clearly can get Dems elected in the Dakotas, what with 2 Dem senators in ND and Stephanie Herseth as SD's House representative. But if Johnson draws any decent opponent then I think this race will be a dogfight -- winnable, but very close.

I would worry far more about him than about NJ. Jerseyites piss and moan and bitch and whine about their Democratic machine politicians -- and then decide that the alternative is even worse, every single time.

Anyway, while everything (obviously) depends on the particular candidates, the map certainly does make it look good for us to keep our hold on the Senate at the very least, if not expand it by 1 or 2 seats.

Harold Ford will remain a fixture in TN politics, perhaps as a party chairman.  He'll probably run for Governor in 2010.

Alexander is very popular (moderate by TN standards), but is also getting up there in years.  He'll be 68 in 2008.  If he retires, I would expect TN Democrats to recruit someone other than Ford (i.e., Bredesen or Bart Gordon).    

Their also may be a Special Election in Wyoming.

Here are my thoughts:

KS: Senator Sebelius?  Maybe even VP Sebelius

OH: See Kansas

AK: Knowles has come up short too many times.

NE: Kleeb and Esch did really well.

MT: If Baucus retires, how about Schweitzer?  Besides, I think Baucus would by Agricultural Committee Chair.  I think he would like to hold onto that for a while.

GA: I hadn't thought about Cleland giving Chambliss payback.  But I think he, like Al Gore, has realized that triangulation doesn't work, so damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.  Another possiblity, providing she doesn't get blamed for Mark Taylor's ass kicking in the governor's race, is soon-to-be former Secretary of State Cathy Cox.  

SD: I would be more worried about Rounds running against Herseth.

NM: If Richardson fails to get the nomination (which I think will happen), he would be very formidable.

NH: Lynch is popular.  Hodes and Shea-Porter would have to wait.

ME: If we can find a candidate who can tie Collins to the right-wingers, we could win.  Both House members and the governor are Democrats.

What about Gene Taylor in MS?

He just won 80% of the vote in his very conservative southern Miss district. If Cochrane retires (he'll be 71) this may turn out to be a great pick-up opportunity.

For example,

Of the Senate seats up in 2008, how many are currently Dems and how many Repubs?

And in 2010?

Thanks,
--Rich

Is potentially very interesting, if Hagel retires (which is up in the air right now, he's still looking to run for president).  If Hagel runs, it's unlikely that we'll have a strong recruit, and if we do have a strong recruit it's unlikely that he'll perform well against an incumbent Republican.  But, anything's possible.  No one in November 2004 could've predicted that Allen was going to lose to a political newcomer this year.

Anyway, our strongest recruits IMHO are Scott Kleeb or Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey.  Both are more liberal than Ben Nelson, so idealogically this could be a very interesting race as far as the netroots are concerned.

Fahey is the popular mayor of a city that contains about 1/3rd of the state's residents.  He's very likeable, and he's both a great politician and a great administrator.  However, Omaha is seen by much of the rest of the state as something of a bully, always pulling it's weight around in state politics.  Fahey has attempted a very controversial annexation of some surrounding communities who have no interest in becoming part of Omaha, and this could potentially hurt him out west.

Kleeb's base, of course, is out west.  When Nelson (narrowly) won the 2000 election against Don Stenberg, he actually lost the third district 54-46%, about identical to Kleeb's loss to Adrian Smith on Tuesday, which is very impressive considering the fact that Kleeb has never run for office before and was blasted by hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of negative advertising in the last week (not to mention the president came in to campaign for his opponent).  If Kleeb could maintain mid-to-high forties in his home district, he would just need to convincingly win the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas in order to win statewide.  Winning Omaha and Lincoln is actually the easy part (relatively).

Bob Kerrey is not an option: he doesn't even live in Nebraska anymore, and has shown no interest in returning.  Personally I hope he ends up in the next (Democratic) administration: he's one of the few people I trust to sort out this Iraq mess.  But I digress.

Let's stop running Knowles for everything.  The future for the Democratic party in Alaska is Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage.

And let's not rate anything as "safe" just yet.  No seat is safe this far out: we don't know what the environment will be, what surprise retirements might be coming, where we might end up with a strong recruit and where we might fall short.  

John E. Sununu: we are coming for you!

TX. Cornyn.  1.  KBH was a little closer than we thought.  Cornyn's not goin' anywhere but, HEY KINKY, wanna make this one interesting?

Pardon my French, but fuck Kinky. He shit on the Democrats at every opportunity. During his campaign for Governor, he:

1) Advocated a fence along the Mexico border, while calling for the National Guard to patrol it;

2) Advocated for prayer in public schools;

3) Told wingnut talk radio host/State Senator-elect Dan Patrick that he'd sign Patrick's trigger bill (to outlaw all abortions in the event Roe v Wade is overturned); and

4) Called Katrina evacuees "crackheads and thugs".

Kinky's campaign did nothing to help Dems in Texas. Let him collect his book and TV millions, which was the point of his candidacy from the beginning. Texas Dems deserve a real candidate and no sideshow freak distractions.

Sorry, but the joke that was Kinky became unfunny a long time ago.

I think some of you are being overly optimistic due to the big win this week.  All Democrats were contenders this year, and that is rare.  If McCain can get the GOP nomination in 2008, I think we'll be facing a headwind next time.  I am also concerned about the potential Democratic retirements.

I'd love to see Richardson end the national speculation and run for the Senate.  I think potential races between Warner & Davis in VA and Udall & Allard in CO would be our best opportunities.  If Dole retires, Taylor could take NC, but the turf is red.

If Rockefeller retires, we'd better hope Manchin runs or Capito will take the seat.

The smart move now would be to openly court party switchers who could pad our majorities in both houses and allow for the expected back swing of the pendulum in 2008.  Spector, Gordon & the Maine twins in the Senate, and Shays, Castle, etc. in the House.  They'd be moderate rather than liberal, and they'd help us keep control.

Those of you even thinking about Kwame Kilpatrick as a potential Senate candidate have some of the most deformed brains imaginable.  Kwame is simply going to be the next Coleman Young who stays as Mayor of Detroit till a few years before he dies, or he might take his mama's seat in congress later on.  Black candidates do not win statewide in Michigan, which explains Land winning the secretary of state office in 2002 against a kwame clone, and Mike cox's reelection against amos williams, who is smarter, but still black in a 80% white state.  People on the north side of 8 mile and the west side of Telegraph despise Kwame's obese hiphop culture, in addition to the corruption in his office that makes him look like a black version of Bush.   The dumber black voters mainly supported him in the same way dumb white people voted for Bush.  So all this talk of Kwame as a senate candidate is RETARDED and you liberal yuppies who make the progressive people look bad need to learn how to think realistically, unless you loved the last 6 years in washington.  

I expect that Levin, if his health holds up, is going to be Michigan's version of Strom Thurmond anyway, (though it's weird to think of a Jewish version of Thurmond) and will cruise to another reelection in the same way he did in 2002. Herb Kohl in Wisconsin just won with 60% easily, and old Dems like Ted Kennedy did the same.  

I'm betting Stabenow retires in 2012 though, and Granholm will win that seat.    

AL- Safe Republican. Alabama is a red state. There is only few Democratic candidates who might challenge Sessions- Lt Governor Jim Folsom- is more interested in running for Governor. US Rep Bud Cramer- represents a red Congressional District- He remains in the House. US Rep Arthur Davis- contemplates a run but decides to wait until 2010 when Alabama's other Republican Senator Richard Shelby retires.
AK- if Stevens runs again- Safe Republican. if Stevens retires- Republican Favored- Dems will nominate Tony Knowles. Republicans will nominate Ben Stevens. Ben Stevens defeats Tony Knowles by a decent margin.
AR- Democratic Favored- Pryor is supposed to be vulnerable- Freshman Senator who was elected with less than 55% of the popular vote but Arkansas has a lack to strong Republican candidates- with the exception of Huckabee- who is more interested in the WhiteHouse run and Pryor is a centrist Moderate Democrat- so Republican are less likely to target him.
CO- Tossup- Allard is most likely to get defeated. He won by narrow margins in 1996 and 2002 against mediocre opponent- and what was a pro GOP year. Allard has a staunch conservative voting record in a swing state that is trending Democratic. Allard has a credible Democratic challenger- US Rep Mark Udall. -
DE- if Biden runs again- Safe Democratic- if Biden retires but Republicans suceed in getting Mike Castle to run- Tossup. If Biden and Castle don't run. Leans Democratic.
GA- Leans Republican- Chambliss will face tough opposition from Democrats- who will recruit a top tier challenger- Cathy Cox or Mark Taylor. However because Georgia is a red state- Chambliss is favored to win re-election.
ID- Safe Republican- Craig(R)will face a sacrificial lamb challeger.
IL- Safe Democratic- Durbin(D)will face a sacrificial lamb challenger.
IA- Leans Democratic- Harkin(D)will face a tough competion from one of the Iowa US REPs- Latham or King. Harkin ends up defeating them- hopefully gets over 55% of the popular vote. If Harkin retires- Leans Democratic- Democrats will nominate ex Lt Governor Sally Pederson.
KS- if Roberts runs again- Safe Republican. If Roberts retires Leans Republican. Republicans will have a divisive primary- between a moderate Bill Graves and a Conservative Todd Tiahrt. Tiahrt wins the Republican nomination. Democrats nominate- ex Lt Governor John Moore- a former Republican. The race becomes extremely competive but the Republican narrowly wins.
KY- Safe Republican- McConnell(R) will face a sacrificial lamb challenger.
LA- Tossup- Hurricane Katrina has destroyed Landrieu' NOLA base - Landrieu was narrowly elected and re-elected in 1996 and 2002 against a mediocre Republican challenger. Landrieu is one of the few extremely vulnerable Senators likely to survive due to Centrist moderate voting records.
ME- If Collins runs again- and Dems nominate Tom Allen- Republican Favored. If Collins runs and Allen does not run- Safe Republican. If Collins retires- Leans Democratic.
MA- Safe Democratic
MI- If Levin runs- Safe Democratic- If Levin retires- Tossup. Democratic chances of holding onto the MI seat is Granholm- if she rebuilds her popularity. Other candidates are State House Minority Leader Diane Byrum of Lansing.
MN- Tossup- Coleman was narrowly elected in what was called a fluke election. Democrats will have a competive primary- Dutcher will be the National establishmant favorite. Progressives will split with Rybak,Ciresi,and Franken.
MS- if Cochran runs again- Safe Republican- If Cochran retires- Leans Republican- Democrats nominate- Mike Moore. Republicans nominate Chip Pickering. Pickering wins in a Republican state.
MT- if Baucus runs again- Safe Democratic- Republicans will give Baucus a free pass. if Baucus retires- Leans Republican- either Dennis Rehberg or Marc Racicot is favorite to unseat John Morrison.
NE- Safe Republican
NH- Tossup= Sununu will face a top tier challenger- ex Governor Jean Shaheen. This race goes down the wire.
NJ- Leans Democratic- Lautenberg will face tough opposition from the Republicans but because NJ is a blue State- Lautenberg is going to win re-election.
NM- If Domenici runs again- Safe Republican. If Domenici retires- Leans Democratic- Democratic will nominate- Tom Udall, Republicans will nominate Steven Pearce.
NC- If Easley runs- Tossup. If Easley does not run Republican Favored.
OK- Republican Favored- Due to Inhofe's age,extremist ideology and personal misteps- This race could end up being a shocker. Any other Republican other than Inhofe can keep the Seat in the Republican collumn. Democrats will nominate- Dan Boren or Brad Carson.
OR- Leans Republican- This race could be a possible upset due to the Democratic nature of Oregon. if Kitzhaber runs- Tossup. Other Democratic challengers- Earl Bluemenaur,Ben Westlund.
RI- Safe Democratic
SC- Safe Republican- Dems will give a free pass
SD- Democratic Favored- Republicans will give a free pass.
TN- Safe Republican- Dems will give a free pass.
TX- Republican Favored- Democrats will target but Cornyn is favored to win due to the redness of Texas.
VA- if Warner runs again- Safe Republican- If Warner retires- Leans Democratic- Democrats will nominate- Mark Warner. Republicans will have a divisive primary- Davis,Allen,or Gilmore.
WV- if Rockefeller runs again- Safe Democratic if Rockefeller retires- Tossup. Democrats nominate Nick Rahall,Republicans nominate- Shelly Moore Capito.
WY- Safe Republican

Democratic Senators who are likely to retire= Lautenberg(NJ).

Biden(DE)and Kerry(MA)-both who have presidential ambitions will stay in the Senate- both occupy committee chairmanships.
Harkin(IA),Levin(MI),Baucus(MT),Rockefel ler(WV)-will remain in the Senate- due to their seniority status and ability to occupy committee chairmanship.

Republican Senators who are likely to retire

Republican Senators who are in their 70's
1)Stevens(AK)- Republicans are favored to hold on that seat.
2)Roberts(KS)- Republicans are favored to hold on to that seat.
3)Cochran (MS)- Republicans are favored to hold on that seat.
4)Domenici(NM)- Democratic Pickup.
5)Dole(NC)- Tossup
6)Inhofe(OK)- Republicans are favored to hold on that seat.
7)Warner(VA)- Leans Democratic.

Self imposed Term limits
1)Allard(CO)- Democratic Pickup
2)Collins(ME)-Democratic Pickup