Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth

As of this morning, I've embedded myself with Lois Murphy's campaign in Pennsylvania's Sixth District -- a race with a ton of rich aspects. We've got a county smack in the middle and making up about 40% of the district that was long written off as conservative but is now starting to flex Democratic muscle, as I wrote about two nights ago. And marvel at the absurdity of the boundaries of the PA-06, sometimes called the "Pterodactyl District" because of its shape. It was drawn up special for Murphy's opponent, Rep. Jim Gerlach. Man, some districts are so ridiculously gerrymandered that you just have to laugh.

It's also a district where it seems like one can get an education in political messaging. What I'm hearing about robocalls in PA-06 -- what Josh Marshall neatly sums up as "intentionally-harassing calls disguised to appear that they're from the opposite party" -- is really just disgraceful. While I'm strongly anti-death penalty, when it comes to ringing up folks repeatedly in the wee hours I'd need the help of Dick Cheney to think of a punishment severe enough.

But to tell the truth, there wasn't much talk about of robocalls on the ground in the Sixth. I was offline most of the day and I hadn't read too much about it until tonight. There's no story on the website of the Philadelphia Inquirer right now. Maybe they're hard at work on a story for the morning's print edition, but maybe not. In the long term, we need to get to a point where these sort of crude and abusive tactics just can't shake our voters. We'll need to increase the pool of resilient voters who won't let anything get in between them and their vote.

If you happen to be in the Philly area, you can hear just those sort of voters for yourself on WHAT 1340 AM, the self-billed "voice of the African-American community." I've been listing to WHAT all day today as I drove through the Sixth District. Hour after hour, hosts and callers hashed over Election Day 2006 from the most interesting of angles, like:

  • how the duality model of good and evil leads to war
  • the need to move from literal to logos (or logic) in the understanding of religion
  • media literacy
  • the "schizophrenia" of modern Christianity where even pastors don't believe the words that come out of their mouth
  • spiritual illiteracy
  • Wilsonianism
  • how to scrutinize a politician's record.

But all day long the message was that (1) your vote matters, (2) it is a duty and honor to vote, and (3) nothing and no one should get between you and your vote. Talk radio is powerful stuff (and WHAT is a reminder of why what happened to Air America is such a shame), but that power comes from strength of message.

I sat down today for a long talk with Lois Murphy's campaign manager Jill Harris. At the heart of this campaign, according to Jill, was something that happened a long while ago. In actual fact, Murphy is a strong candidate and a great Democrat for PA-06. But many months ago Gerlach did some polling, found out that Murphy's name recognition was fairly low in the district, and set out to brand her as "Liberal Lois" running a campaign based on hate:

Not one to give in to the weakness of subtlety, Gerlach also put up a website at LiberalLoisMurphy.com. For some voters in the sixth, it was effectively Gerlach who introduced Murphy to them for first time.

I think there's a fair concern in the Sixth that a Democratic message limited to "we're not those awful Republicans" might have the cut the legs out from under it by a Republican response of "me neither." Someone like Don Sherwood can't pull off that counter-message. But tomorrow we might find out if a moderate rank-and-file member like Jim Gerlach can. Here in the district, he seems to be best known for his efforts to protect open spaces in the rapidly growing exurbs. Then there are the facts that he voted against the ban on funding for embryonic stem-cell research and the Federal Marriage Amendment.

Jill walked me through their campaign strategy (though she asked that I not write about some of the specifics until after the election) and what she's seen of Gerlach's. She said that unlike the 2004 race where Lois was under funded but still just barely lost to Gerlach 49% - 51%, the resources are in place this cycle to allow her to fully compete. Harris remarked on Gerlach's ability to accentuate different parts of his record in the different parts of the district -- running tough-on-immigration in the more insular "left claw" of the pterodactyl and protector-of-the-environment in the more progressive "right claw," and so on.

On GOTV, Jill is a veteran of ACT's 2004 efforts in Ohio and another Murphy staffer who worked with her there remarked that while Democrats were focused on eight Ohio counties in that cycle, Republicans were working in eighty. Murphy's team seems to have a lesson from that in 2006, and without giving up too much, I will say that they have a plan to find every Democratic vote hiding in every barn, house, and stable in the district. I'll update on those efforts tomorrow.

Do More Than Vote

Remember, we can laze about in our jammies drinking mocha frappuccinos and playing Jenga all day Wednesday. And on Thursday, we'll begin the tough work ahead. We'll fix how we do elections. We'll build voters too strong to succumb to irresponsible and disrespectful campaign tactics. We'll grow new channels of communication. We'll redraw the districts that look more like dinosaurs than units of representative democracy.

But tomorrow, our task is pretty simple -- get our voters to the polls! Find out how at Do More Than Vote.

Nancy's "Election 2006 Pennsylvania Tour" is brought to you by the AFL-CIO's Labor 2006 Program.



Display:


I hope Lois wins (none / 0)

I know the woman who managed her campaign in 2004, when she came very close to winning. With the wind at her back this year, I hope the outcome is better.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 01:09:41 AM EST

Looks like it's going to be very close... (none / 0)

But she has a heck of a team on the ground and they seem to have really studied the lessons of 2004.

Lois lost by such a slim margin last time -- 7,000 votes I think -- so it seems entirely within reach tomorrow. Her staff said that in 2004 people went to bed thinking that she had won and woke up to find that the late votes went Gerlach's way, so it might be a late night.
by Nancy Scola on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 01:24:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

When I go home tomorrow and check the answering machine, I hope it's not full .. lol  .. Where I live .. we used to be in Weldon's district(we used to get a crap load of fliers from him anyway) ... I think things will go well ... loads of people will turn out for Casey and Rendell .. which of course helps Lois


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 01:37:52 AM EST

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Yet a different Murphy staffer today told me that Rendell has a history of turning out large numbers of women, which might help her as well. His race isn't close, but as you know you can't throw a stick in southeastern Pennsylvania without hitting a Rendell sign. He seems to be campaigning very hard for the ticket.
by Nancy Scola on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 01:49:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Nancy,
Have you heard anything about Ed running in '08 or '12?  There has always been talk that people thought Ed would run, or that he'd be a strong contender.  If he is gonna run, he obviously has to help out SE PA.  He carried Chester County(which was pretty red), so hopefully he can help Lois, since the 6th encompasses a lot of Chester County.
John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 02:14:31 AM EST

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Hmm, I hadn't heard anything about that but Wikipedia tells me there indeed has been speculation. My incredibly uninformed two-part opinion from less than a week on the ground here is that (a) he's considered to have been a very good governor and former mayor and so on and (b) there might be concern that he's not overly "presidential." Again, that's based on very little.

Chester County is such a neat story and it reminds me so much of the district that I grew up in in northern New Jersey. They've got Rep. Scott Garrett now (NJ-05), but I've always felt that he's just too conservative for the area. Chester County gives me hope for Bergen County.
by Nancy Scola on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 02:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Ed has repeatedly said that this would be his "last campaign", so I'll take him at his word that he won't make a presidential run anytime soon.  I doubt he would turn down a VP run though.  


by Jimmy Engler on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Philly Dems are moving out to the burbs.  ;-)    Did Lois or her campaign tell you about Andy Dinniman?


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 03:27:45 AM EST

Andy Dinniman (none / 0)

AFL-CIO field organizers told me about Andy just as soon as I got here and then I got a chance to hear him at a rally with Al Gore on Sunday in Downingtown. I wrote about him a little bit on Sunday night. (Andy's the new Dem State Senator from Chester County, elected by a wide margin in a special election in May.)
by Nancy Scola on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 07:09:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Andy Dinniman (none / 0)

I'm a registered republican in Chester County.

My township is strongly republican, there was only one democrat on the local ballot in November 2005,  a very nice lady who was running to work the polls.

Andy won my republican township easily last year. He has built a strong reputation for land preservation and planned growth which appeals to many on both sides. He had wide support among almost everyone I know (mostly republicans)  


by Meade on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:32:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Hell, I even kept my ChesCo registration when I moved to Denver so I could vote for Lois.  I really hope she pulls it off.


by RisingSign on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 09:17:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Rendell's got a big ground game in place. I'll be part of the GOTV in MontCo today. As Nancy says, Rendell's GOTV is big and sophisticated.

As for WHAT, it can be an interesting listen, but
its signal is far too low to be heard much outside
of Philadelphia proper.

Rendell has been a good governor and he's always been a pragmatist, wanting to solve problems first
and be partisan second. I don't think he really wants to president, but he's sort of hinted recently he might like being a Cabinet Secretary in a Dem WH.

As for the voters, change just seems to be in the air. I think the silly name-calling ads have turned more people off than not.


by phillydem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 05:52:45 AM EST

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Very local perspective on Gerlach

I know Gerlach, he lives in my very republican township and as far as I can tell he is thought to be a nice guy who hasn't done much in congress.

He rarely attends local events and is not involved in the local not for profits, except this year when he showed up for the first time a an annual charity auction and a large event at a township  historical site. It was seen as political by many.

One township resident had a fund raising event for Gerlach, I'm told McCain was there. Most people I know in my township will vote for Gerlach. He is definitely winning the lawn sign contest.

Another neighbor hosted an event with Lois Murphy, get to know the candidate type of thing. I met Lois two years ago at a similar event hosted by the same neighbor.

I'm a registered republican who has been working for Lois Murphy since early last summer. Murphy's staff is tremendous. The young people working for Murphy are bright, enthusiastic, and hard working.

 


by Meade on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 08:54:12 AM EST

On Liberal Lois (none / 0)

Check out this report done for Gerlach and the NRCC from September 15, 2006. They were clearly polling the liberal angle and just as clearly got it very wrong.

As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 400 likely voters for the
Gerlach campaign and the NRCC. The poll was conducted on September 13-14, 2006 and has a
margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Key Findings

Gerlach leads Lois Murphy by a 47%-36% margin.
While both Democrats Bob Casey and Ed Rendell have leads over their opponents in this district, Congressman Jim Gerlach leads Lois Murphy by a 47%-36% margin.

Lois Murphy's image is nearly one-to-one favorable/unfavorable.
Lois Murphy's image among voters in the district is precariously close to one-to-one, sitting at 31% favorable - 26% unfavorable, while Jim Gerlach's image is 50% favorable - 29% unfavorable.

Fully 60% of voters believe that Lois Murphy is a "liberal."
When voters were asked if they agree or disagree with the following statement:

Generally speaking, Lois Murphy is a liberal.
Fully 60% agree, with just 11% disagreeing.

Bottom Line
While our previous data showed this race to be within the margin of error, this poll clearly shows Congressman Gerlach surging ahead to a significant lead, with Murphy's image flagging as she becomes known for her liberal issue positions.

As we head into the last seven plus weeks of this campaign, Congressman Gerlach is wellpositioned
to withstand Murphy's and the DCCC's expected onslaught of negative advertising.


by Meade on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 09:08:18 AM EST

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Good Luck to Lois, but that gerrymandering is nothing.  It's childs play.  Now, I live in the greatest example of gerrymandering in the history of the United States...Luis Guitierrez's Illinois 4th Congressional district.  Check it out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Illin ois_District_4_2004.png
by JJCPA on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 09:30:51 AM EST

Re: Pennsylvania's Pterodactyl Sixth (none / 0)

Well, I live out on the outskirts of this district(off of 401). The turn out was very good and I was laughing at the Republican who thought good turn out here, was good for the Republicans.  To me, good turn out in a non-presidential year, in a predominately Republican area means that the Republicans are in trouble.  People are fed up and it is time for a change!  I voted for Murphy and I really hope she wins.  Quite honestly, while I normally don't vote down party lines, I did this time because a message needed to be sent.  I hope the Republicans are stomped mightly this term!!!


by Converteddem on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 10:56:33 AM EST


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