Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

I'm heading out to see Bill Clinton rally with Mark Warner for Jim Webb's election to the US Senate in Virginia, and will post more on it later. Here's a new slate of polls out on all the Gov and Senate races by polimetrix(pdf).

The headline grabber for Dems is that Pederson and Lamont are both within 4 percent:

Arizona
Pederson            46
Kyl                 50

Connecticut
Lieberman           48
Lamont              44
Schlesinger          9

The Virginia and Missouri races, where the election will likely come down to in the Senate, are all tied up at 50-50 a piece. Everything else on the Senate sides looks according to the current norm in other polls. Pederson was closing in a poll yesterday as well, and SUSA yesterday showed Lieberman falling across the finish line, so maybe?



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Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

Should the fact that they call Bob Corker "Jim Corker" be a cause for skepticism about these numbers?


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:14:33 PM EST

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

You don't want to vote for a Nussie in Iowa either...


by Jerome Armstrong on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:16:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

48 + 44 + 9 = 101 (none / 0)

What are the chances that 101% of the CT electorate will vote?


by Swan on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:16:37 PM EST

Re: 48 + 44 + 9 = 101 (none / 0)

Depending on how much Joe pays 'em... pretty good I'd say.


by MNPundit on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:20:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 48 + 44 + 9 = 101 (none / 0)

In Connecticut, I'm not so sure.  It's very likely in Chicago, though!


Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 05:01:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

How reliable is this polling outfit?  I've never heard of it and the numbers in CT in particular are way different than anything i've seen yet


by blueryan on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:26:30 PM EST

Here (none / 0)

http://www.polimetrix.com/

Check the about us page. But I agree I've never heard of these guys before and they are definitely new. Still and all I think that's close to what the final numbers will be in the race:

Lieberman 50, Lamont 44, Schleshinger 6


by MNPundit on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:31:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here (none / 0)

The text in the PDF is weird.  Strangely casual language for a polling report - like a 10th grader's book report or something.  And the totals for a lot of races show 0% undecided.  I can chalk up totals of 101% to rounding, but it's unusual to not include any undecided voters at all...


by fwiffo on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:34:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

The CT poll only has 401 responses, so the MOE is kinda bigish.


by fwiffo on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:31:41 PM EST

Self-selected sample? (none / 0)

I'll take it, though. Music to mine earholes.

Beat Holy Joe
Beat him bad


by stevehigh on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:44:31 PM EST

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

Its better to be a Dem than a Repub tomorrow. On high ground waiting for the tsunami to strike.


by ab initio on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 04:46:59 PM EST

F the polls (none / 0)

At this point, any poll is too depressing to check out with respect to CT, even this one which no one seems to know much about.

F*** 'em and just let's hope the GOTV efforts for Lamont are as good as hyped. That is the key right now.


by Pravin on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 05:12:18 PM EST

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

the sampling error for a sampling size of 400 is +/- 7% per the polimetrix report.

the Lieberman/Lamont size?  401.  

Worthless poll.


by JJCPA on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 05:27:44 PM EST

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

Polimetrix also failed to include Rich Whitney in Illinois.  Whitney has consistently polled in 10-15% range in other polls.  Another reason this poll is crap.


by JJCPA on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 05:30:00 PM EST

Re: Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT (none / 0)

That makes me so happy that Lamont is only 4 points behind!

C'mon Team Lamont!!!!


by dayspring on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 07:07:57 PM EST


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