Democratic Voters Still More Motivated than Republicans

Despite surveys showing the Democrats maintaining a somewhat shrinking, though nevertheless noticeable lead on generic congressional ballot questions one statistic that jumps out of recent polling augurs very well for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot all around the country: Democratic voters are still significantly more motivated than the Republican base.

According to the latest polling from the Pew Research Center, the Democrats' generic congressional ballot lead has fallen to just four points among likely voters (eight points among registered voters). However the survey, which was in the field from Wednesday through Saturday, also found that 51 percent of Democratic voters are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" while just 42 percent of Republicans say the same. True, this margin is smaller than it was last month; nonetheless it represents a a real problem for the GOP turnout machine that is seeking to activate a still depressed base. The latest Time magazine poll, which was in the field from Wednesday through Friday, comes to almost the exact same conclusion.

With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 -- their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.

There is still a lot of work to do, as some of the tightening district, statewide and national polling indicates. However, our jobs remain much easier than those of the Republican operatives. Democratic voters are just more poised to go to the voting booth than Republicans. Don't just take this polling as proof. Today, the folks at The Hotline write, "Is the 72-hour program showing some signs of wear and tear? According to one source, the RNC is now having to increase its "volunteer" compensation from $75 a day to $100 a day in certain places in New England."

So dedicate what time you have to phonebanking or knocking on doors, be it through the party, a campaign or an outside organization. Send an email to your friends and relatives telling them how you intend to vote. In the aggregate, even a couple of hours from a few people can make the difference between winning by 1,000 votes and losing by 1,000 votes -- and enough of such swings could greatly affect the make up of Congress and governorships, state legislatures and local governments around the coutnry.



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Re: Democratic (none / 0)

Man, I should have never come here.  I'm getting nervous because all the people I've read lately are all a little less confident.  Maybe that's natural, maybe it's not.  Either way, I'm nervous.


by KC on Sun Nov 05, 2006 at 11:52:01 PM EST

Re: Democratic Voters Still More Motivated than Re (none / 0)

I just read on Hinessight and Political Wire that tomorrow USA today and a tennessee paper has new polls.  Ford and corker are tied!  really!  yippee


by vwcat on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:06:41 AM EST

Re: Democratic Voters (none / 0)

vwcat, I sure hope you're right.  I just read about the robocall thing at Josh Marshall's place and can't help but be worried.  Gawd, I hope people are tired of the cynical folks who run our country.  I really really do.  


by KC on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:09:03 AM EST

jonathan, great post (none / 0)

great balance of level headedness and emphasis on action.

I will be at West Oakland BART handing out CA voter cards tommorrow AM operating under exactly the logic you express above.

We are facing some uphill battles in CA. There is no doubt about that.

But I know that BART station as I've done GOTV there for the last seven years.  I go there because Voting is a muscle.

If we don't use it.  We lose it.

That being said. Our people need wins. That's just the truth.


k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:16:07 AM EST

Positive Actions and Positive Thinking (none / 0)

I have gotten out my anger at he who will not be named.

So, new strategy suggestion:

Let's keep it positive from now through Tuesday.

I made some calls for Moveon.org.  It was actually alot of fun, and I felt like I was doing some good.  I live in a heavily gerrymandered district in Florida, but I can still have an effect on the close races around the country.  It is ALL ABOUT WHO SHOWS AT THE POLLS!  Take 20 minutes and make some calls for moveon.org.  Know that every person you contact is like contacting 2 or 3.  Also know that Lois Murphy almost beat Jim Gerlach in 2004.  Just 1000 votes made the difference.  Calling just 10 people in her district equals 1% of her deficit.  If a hundred people do that, we will win that seat.  I did it.  So, 99 people to go!

We are going to take the House as long as we stay focused.  


"ex nihilo nihil fit"
by Lassallean on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:18:30 AM EST

tightening polls are Republicans coming home (none / 0)

I have believed for a long time that a lot of the so-called undecideds were Republicans who know their party is corrupt and didn't want to admit to supporting them. However, when push comes to shove, most of these people will end up voting GOP just like they have for their whole lives.

BUT that doesn't mean that Dems don't have a real lead and a potential tidal wave coming their way. The realignment of independents with Democrats is what's going to swing a lot of close races, not the somewhat dissatisfied Republicans who come home. Sure, it would be better for us if those Republicans didn't vote at all. But let's not panic because generic ballots are showing smaller leads for us.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:52:56 AM EST


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