Despite surveys showing the Democrats maintaining a somewhat shrinking, though nevertheless noticeable lead on generic congressional ballot questions one statistic that jumps out of recent polling augurs very well for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot all around the country: Democratic voters are still significantly more motivated than the Republican base.
According to the latest polling from the Pew Research Center, the Democrats' generic congressional ballot lead has fallen to just four points among likely voters (eight points among registered voters). However the survey, which was in the field from Wednesday through Saturday, also found that 51 percent of Democratic voters are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" while just 42 percent of Republicans say the same. True, this margin is smaller than it was last month; nonetheless it represents a a real problem for the GOP turnout machine that is seeking to activate a still depressed base. The latest Time magazine poll, which was in the field from Wednesday through Friday, comes to almost the exact same conclusion.
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 -- their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.
There is still a lot of work to do, as some of the tightening district, statewide and national polling indicates. However, our jobs remain much easier than those of the Republican operatives. Democratic voters are just more poised to go to the voting booth than Republicans. Don't just take this polling as proof. Today, the folks at The Hotline write, "Is the 72-hour program showing some signs of wear and tear? According to one source, the RNC is now having to increase its "volunteer" compensation from $75 a day to $100 a day in certain places in New England."
So dedicate what time you have to phonebanking or knocking on doors, be it through the party, a campaign or an outside organization. Send an email to your friends and relatives telling them how you intend to vote. In the aggregate, even a couple of hours from a few people can make the difference between winning by 1,000 votes and losing by 1,000 votes -- and enough of such swings could greatly affect the make up of Congress and governorships, state legislatures and local governments around the coutnry.
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