(Here's my long promised post on the Yarmuth Campaign in the KY-03. I think this is a race to keep a close eye on Tuesday night.)
A lot of people have been surprised by the recent polling lead that John Yarmuth has opened up on Ann Northup in Kentucky's Third District. Last Wednesday I stopped by the John Yarmuth for Congress HQ in Louisville and spent a while talking shop with the Yarmuth Campaign manager Jason Burke, hoping to gain insight into a race that has turned into one of the Dem's best pickup opportunities in 2006.
When John Yarmuth first declared his intentions to challenge Northup, and even after he won the primary, few Democrats added this to their list of top races. Much of this had to do with the Kentucky Third's reputation as a Democratic heartbreaker, a black hole that sucked in millions of dollars and never managed to knock off Northrup, despite the district's Democratic edge (130,000 more Democrats than Republicans). Adding to this was Ann Northup's reputation, which was nearing mythical status, having faced (and dispatched) a well-funded, serious, challenge every cycle since her 1996 election. Finally, there was Yarmuth himself, a well-off local who had founded the Louisville alternative weekly newspaper the LEO, and had written 15 years worth of weekly columns on a variety of subjects. As a former opposition research the thought of 15 years worth of columns makes me alternatively both giddy (if it were my opponent) and nauseous (if it were my candidate). For all of these reasons, little attention was paid to the race at the beginning.
But along the way, something funny happened. Under the radar the Yarmuth people built a campaign that is now poised to oust Northup.
I spent about an hour or so with the campaign manager Jason Burke and came away impressed with the smart campaign they're running. First, they took the time to learn Northup's playbook from previous elections. Previous Democratic campaigns had run a pretty standard campaign playbook for a challenger, a 30 second bio spot for a week or so followed by an attack on Northup. This allowed Northup to play victim and force the challenger to respond to her charges, allowing her to control the agenda with overwhelming money until Election Day.
So the Yarmuth campaign started in September with a 60-second bio ad followed by a 30-second...positive ad. And waited. They didn't have to wait long.
Sure enough, Northup went on the attack early and hard. In fact, Northup went nuclear with a 60-second attack ad that shoved 6+ separate attacks (six!) in one ad.
Northup's over the top attack ad (keep in mind this was in September) set the stage perfectly for this ad from Yarmuth, which used humor to help neutralize the sting of the rest of her attack ads. Instead of responding blow-for-blow, they diffused the attacks on Yarmuth's columns and went after Northup's negative campaigning style, making that the issue.
The campaign also decided not to take the city's Democrats for granted or treated all registered Democrats the same way. Jason described "14 different kinds of Democrats in Louisville" that had been mostly taken for granted in the past, which had allowed for Northup's continued victory in a 3:1 Democrat district. Not this time. Using a bootstrap micro-targeting system they built themselves they built themselves they began an effort to turn infrequent voters into the kind of voters who yell "If you call me one more time I'm not going to vote!" when you phone bank them, because those people vote (no matter what they may tell you when you call).
The campaign also added humor to their arsenal, creating a parody website called "Northup Exposure" with some funny web ads that poked fun at the Congresswoman's "accomplishments."
Finally, much credit goes to the candidate himself, John Yarmuth, who hasn't hesitated to draw a sharp contrast between himself and his Republican opponent. I found this passage from a long Louisville Courier-Journal profile about Yarmuth's path to the Democratic Party particularly interesting:
Yarmuth's doubts about the Republican Party began when newly elected President Ronald Reagan "sent the wrong message to people who were struggling -- that they were on their own."
He switched parties in 1985, the day after the Rev. Jerry Falwell returned from a trip to South Africa and denounced Bishop Desmond Tutu, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning apartheid opponent, as a phony.
He now describes himself as "liberal progressive position on most issues." He is for affirmative action, universal health insurance, raising the minimum wage and abortion rights.
He has charged that Northup's unrelenting campaign ads have distorted his positions by quoting his LEO columns out of context.
Still, he says, Northup has been dead-on in drawing a sharp contrast between their records.
"Whatever she calls herself," he said, "I am mostly on the other side."
This distinction seems to be resonating and the hard work seems to be paying off. Polls over the last few months have shown Yarmuth gaining and the latest SurveyUSA poll has him up 8 points on Northup, 52% to 44%.
Finally, I think Yarmuth's message may be the sharpest and best of any challenger's that I've heard this cycle, "We Can't Change Washington Unless We Change the People We Send There." It perfectly sums up everything that's wrong and everything we need to do to make it right.
on the web: John Yarmuth
Adam's "Midwest MapChangers" Roadtrip is brought to you by the AFL-CIO's Labor 2006 Program|
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