Bowers' key votes: more goodness to come

Given the imminence of the expected Dem win in the House, I thought I'd take another look at the way in which the various groups of Dem reps cast their votes in the key votes which Chris identified back in April in his 'Building a Real House Majority' piece - which formed the basis of my first look at the way minorities in the Dem House party regularly sided with the GOP on key votes, sometimes to the extent of being the difference between bills passing or not.

In the light of recent controversy over the way a Dem-controlled 110th, I thought I'd see what clues the performance of the Dems in the 109th might provide.

So I've been doing a fair bit of spreadsheeting - which, unfortunately, I have no place to put online right now!

Spreadsheets need to be shuffled and cut a fair bit to yield their goodness; but first indications are interesting.

I've analyzed the pro-GOP voting in 29 votes in the 109th between the main groups of Dems - Blue Dogs (37 reps), NDC (46), CBC (40), CPC (58), plus the unaffiliated (the 68 belonging to none of these groups) - to see where the dissent tends to lie.

It will come as no surprise that, on that score, the Blue Dogs are top of the heap: in the list of reps with the top 10 highest scores for dissenting votes, seven are Blue Dogs (including one dual BD/NDC), one is NDC, and two unaffiliated. These ten reps alone account for 191 votes, 20.5% of the 931 pro-GOP votes cast in the 29 RCVs.

The 'guilty' ten:

ALABAMA CRAMER 22
OKLAHOM BOREN 21
TEXAS CUELLAR 21
TENNESS DAVIS 21
GEORGIA MARSHALL 19
UTAH MATHESON 19
MISSISS TAYLOR 19
TEXAS EDWARDS 17
GEORGIA BARROW 16
TENNESS GORDON 16

Note that I'm not making any judgements here: it looks to me as if these reps' districts are not the most liberal in the country, and that could well explain their votes. At this stage, I'm your regular Joe Friday: Just the facts.

Looking at reps #11-20 on the list, all bar one are Blue Dogs, with one unaffiliated; four are NDC, two are CBC, Brer Ford is all three. These ten cast 146 of the 931 votes.

Reps #21-30 (all Blue Dogs, four also NDC) supply 122 pro-GOP votes.

All quite predictable: there are a few outliers - Blue Dog Sanchez of CA laid a duck egg for Uncle Tom; and the CPC's Clay of MO slapped him five. But the bodies are mostly buried where you'd expect. (To judge from an initial shuffle through the sheets.)

The 31 Dem reps at the top of the list (in descending order of pro-GOP votes, natch) gave just under 50% of the total Dem pro-GOP votes; 83 Dem reps cast either one such vote or none.

Only three (Edwards (TX), Gordon (TN) and Skelton (MO) of the unaffiliated Dem reps cast more pro-GOP votes than the average Blue Dog quota (12.1%); 32 of them cast either one such vote or none.

Of the CBC, the top four (Bishop (GA), Ford, Scott (GA) and Wynn (MD) account for 51 of the 120 pro-GOP votes cast; 20 CBC each gave either one or none.

More to come, I hope.



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