I have now made new updates to both the
Senate Forecast and the
House Forecast. I am making these updates today for multiple reasons. First, looking at the whole situation at once helps calm me down. Second, so much information is coming in, it is forcing me to update several races every day. Third, I have been concerned in a lack of consistency in my forecast method, and I wanted to make sure it was all ironed out. Fortunately, by now I think I have enough improvements to be able to leave the forecasts alone until Monday evening, when I intend to make my final forecasts.
In addition to
the changes I announced last night, here are
the new changes to the House forecast:
- CT-05 upgraded from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic"
- IN-09 upgraded from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic"
- TX-22 downgraded from "lean Democratic" to "toss-up"
- KS-02 upgraded from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican"
- WY-AL upgraded from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican"
The House forecast now shows a Democratic gain of 23-29 seats, giving me a wider range on the exact 26-seat pickup I went with last night. If nothing else, at least right now I feel those rankings are consistent with each other. They may seem conservative, but they are my best guess.
Now, onto the changes in
the Senate forecast:
- Michigan downgraded from "non-competitive" to "likely Democratic"
- Washington downgraded from "non-competitive" to "likely Democratic"
- Montana downgraded from "lean Democratic" to "toss-up: projected Democratic"
- Missouri upgraded from "toss-up: projected Republican" to "toss-up: projected Democratic"
- Tennessee downgraded from "toss-up: projected Republican" to "lean Republican"
- Arizona upgraded from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
- Arizona moves ahead of Tennessee in the overall rankings to our seventh best target
- New Jersey moves ahead of Maryland to become the second best Republican target.
Once again, I feel these rankings are now consistent with each other. The overall Senate projection, however, is notably inconsistent with the seat-by-seat projection. While I forecast Democratic pickups in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island, and while I give Democrats the edge in Montana, Virginia and Missouri, I find the latter three races so close that I do not project we will win all of them. In other words, looking at each seat in a vacuum, I see six pickups for Democrats. However, looking from a wider lens, I see the Democratic edges in Montana, Virginia and Missouri all being so slight, that it seems more likely to me than not that we will lose one of those races. However, I just can't pick which of the three we will lose. This is why I see a five-seat gain for Democrats in the Senate, despite seeing Democrats with an edge in six pickup opportunities.
Is that a cop-out? Maybe. Am I too gutless to ever pick Democrats to win the Senate this cycle? Maybe. However, I would much rather be wrong and have Democrats take the Senate, than be wrong and have Republicans keep the Senate. The margin between Democrats taking the Senate and Republicans keeping the Senate seems so small right now, that even if I am wrong, I shouldn't be wrong by all that much. Right now, this si the best I can do when it comes to guessing. Now, it is time to spend the weekend getting active.
Update: So much information coming in at once.
Look at the new Survey USA polls. I clearly jumped the gun on IN-09, but I was clearly right about CO-04. Hard to keep track of everything. OH--and the poll showing a 47-47 tie in Maryland? It has the green party canddiate getting 3%. Yeah, that will happen. Still, I also feel good about bumping that race ahead of New Jersey. Menedez will win. Cardin--I'm not so sure yet.
