blood in the morning air.  It is the smell of victory.

Very nice as usual.

I hope we pickup around that amount of seats.

I'm gonna be doing all i can in the NY-19, going to do as much volunteering as time allows.

-- MrMacMan

I think we're picking up 48 seats. Probably a little on the optimistic side, and that was leaving out quite a few of the longshot bids.

Just want to let you know, Chris, how greatly we all appreciate the huge amount of work you're doing this election cycle. All these projects (use it, google, forecasts, etc.) are phenomenal.

For myself, other than lite blogging, participating in google-bombs, donating most of my disposable income for a couple of months, and making a few hundred phone calls, I haven't been able to do the "feet on the street part." So, good luck canvassing. Let us blog-watchers know how the canvasing goes over the weekend.

I am CERTAIN that this will be the very best election of my lifetime -- and I'm no spring chicken.

Might be a little optimisitc about this race. Kirk is popular and thats the only poll I've seen with such a close race.

Standard issue politics suggests that a few more tricks remain to be played.   I look for Rove to go negative down the stretch in a series of predictable but unrewarding moves.  Traditionally, whisper campaigns start about now.  The most personal negative attacks are launched when the opposing candidate can't have time to respond.  That would mean either in a Friday or Saturday mailer or in a Sunday or Monday TV ad.

Maybe this will be what turns a 25 seat win into a 50 seat landslide.  Rove may be selling but nobody id buying.

I intend to stay conservative until November 7th.

Nothing wrong with that.  Only few can be liberal.  We understand.

Based on current polling there really is no justification for any projection lower than mine.

But don't you see, Chris, you use the statistics in the way that suits your inclinations and prejudices.  Everybody does.  

Applying statistical theory to polling is like the Midas Muffler Man making things fit that don't.  Making the statistics fit pre-conceived notions is child's play.

I detest the averaging of polls but I suppose that is as good a method as any of foretelling the unknowable future.  Kind of like spreading the manure to grow the crops.

A key statistic for me:

I found two more blue districts held by Republicans

Been a lot of this finding stuff.

Be a lot more election night I reckon.  

That's my forecast.

Really appreciate your efforts, Chris.  You're all right no matter what they say about conservatives.

Best,  Terry

I'm surprised WY-AL hasn't moved up.  I think Cubin's done for.

I think we are more likely to take NE-03 than some of the Tier 2 races.  That race may surprise.  I'd really like to see Ryun lose in KS-02.  I can see that race being hard hit by evangelicals staying home and withdrawing from politics, also the move of moderate KS Republicans to the Dems.  And as I said above, IA-02 is within the Dems' reach--you were right.

In the west I think we will get ID-01, WY-AL and AZ-05, if not AZ-01.  I'd settle for losing CO-05 if we can defeat Musgrave in CO-04.

I think you're taking the right approach.  There has to be some acknowledgement that the territory we're in is aberrant: polling methodologies are based on norms and normal years, not abnormal years.  An honest and simple way to correct for that is to tilt your results to the conservative end of whatever spectrum you're dealing with.

If Dems do better, they do better.  If not, you didn't pile on and add to the euphoria.  Which, to my mind, is something the Republicans are very good at creating in the minds of beaten-down Democrats.

Good for you for not falling for it.

Raw Story has a very incriminating TV News report on Tim Murphy (R) of PA-18 having regular congressional staffers do election canvassing.  (The story includes video of a state rep serving 6 month sentence for similar actions!)

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Congre ssman_takes_incriminating_documents_away _from_1103.html

Is there are Dem opponent?  Should this one be on the radar screen?

Chad Kluko is Murphy's opponent. Kluko got the P-G's endorsement, but he's broke and there's no Dem money flowing into the 18th.

This district is Democratic by registration, but suffers from the same problem that the 4th and 15th do, the inability to recruit great, rather than good and sincere candidates, as Kluko is. The Dems tried really hard to get Stan Savarn, a well-known local sports commentator, but when Savarn turned the Dems down, they were left with
two less well-known candidates in the primary which Kluko then won.

This story was reported on for a couple of days in the P-G, but Kluko doesn't have the money to exploit it. Then again, you never know in a wave election. Rendell's campaign is running the statewide GOTV effort for all Dems so canvassers will be knocking on every D and Indy door on election day.

I'd say if CDs like the 18th, 15th, 16th and 9th are close, then we'll be looking at a landslide for the Dems overall.