If it had not been for faulty machine error, producing
an absurdly high undervote, then
Christine Jennings would have won this election on November 7th:
The group of nearly 18,000 voters that registered no choice in Sarasota's disputed congressional election solidly backed Democratic candidates in all five of Florida's statewide races, an Orlando Sentinel analysis of ballot data shows.
Among these voters, even the weakest Democrat -- agriculture-commissioner candidate Eric Copeland -- outpaced a much-better-known Republican incumbent by 551 votes.
The trend, which continues up the ticket to the race for governor and U.S. Senate, suggests that if votes were truly cast and lost -- as Democrat Christine Jennings maintains -- they were votes that likely cost her the congressional election.
Republican Vern Buchanan's 369-vote victory was certified by state officials Monday. His camp says that, although people may have skipped the race -- intentionally or not -- there is no evidence that votes went missing.
But the results of the Sentinel analysis, two experts said, warrant additional investigation.
"Wow," University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said. "That's very suggestive -- I'd even say strongly suggestive -- that if there had been votes recorded, she [Jennings] would have won that House seat."
David Dill, an electronic-voting expert at Stanford University, put it this way: "It seems to establish with certainty that more Democrats are represented in those undervoted ballots."
The Sentinel reviewed records of 17,846 touch-screen ballots that included no vote in the tightly contested 13th District congressional race to determine whom voters selected in other major races.
Now, even a small, cursory examination of the voting machines used in Sarasota County
shows regular and serious problems with the vote count. If Vern Buchanan is seated in the House without a new election, than the FL-13, Katherine Harris's old district, will have a representative seated against the will of the voters.
There is, however, a way that Democrats can solve this problem without the need for further lawsuits or recounts. Considering how close the election was, how flawed the voting was because of the machine error, and that the voting problems caused the result of the election to flip sides, the only just solution is for a new election in FL-13. After January 4th,
House Democrats will have that power:
Election watchers around the country think that the race could end up before a House committee -- the House Administration Committee, which oversees Federal elections. If so, the full House, which in the end is responsible for seating new members, could potentially vote on which of the two candidates to seat, thus deciding the race's outcome itself -- or could call for a new recount, or even declare the seat vacant and mandate a new election. Right now, of course, the House is still GOP-controlled, but by the time of this vote it could be in the hands of Dems -- meaning Jennings could conceivably pull off a win after all.
Jonathan is right to point out that simply seating Jennings without a new election would probably be a bad move politically. However, Democrats do have two reasonable options. First, they could refuse to seat either Jennings or Buchanan without a new election. Second, they could seat Jennings for a few minutes, and then have her immediately resign, resulting in a special election for FL-13 in the spring of 2007. Either way, House Democrats would be fulfilling the necessary and just goal of a new election in FL-13.
The best move would probably be to take the first option until either Bush or the new Florida governor refuses the budge. Once that point is reached, it is time for option number two. I have no idea what sort of chance Jennings would have in a new election, but holding that new election is, quite simply, the only just option. There is a danger that this will become an unfortunate sideshow during the first couple months of the new Democratic Congress, but it is the sort of fight that I, and I imagine the entire netroots, and willing to give Democrats full backing to engage.
Please,
continue to support the Christine Jennings recount fund. If you are a local, you can also
participate in a rally for a revote in Florida 13 this Sunday. We can't let faulty voting machines defy the will of the electorate in Katherine Harris's district.
