Here are
eleven House seats where the progressive movement should have played more of a role this year:
OH-06, IL-17, OH-13, MD-03, HI-02, FL-11, TN-09, MN-05, GA-04, NJ-13, and NY-11
What do these eleven House seats have in common, you might ask? All eleven were held by Democrats before the election, but all eleven are now held by different Democrats after the election. These were our eleven open seats, at least eight of which can be considered safe blue districts (OH-06 is a swing district, and IL-17 and OH-13 are both about the same as CT-04, the district held by Republican Chris Shays). For people who are interested in helping to build a Democratic majority that is responsive to the interests of the people-powered progressive movement, these are exactly the type of seats where you should be directing your resources. Beyond Republican-held seats, beyond primary challenges to safe Democratic incumbents, the open, safe Democratic seat is exactly the sort of district we need to pay more attention to in 2008. Unfortunately, in the 2006 cycle, this was a type of district the online component of the progressive movement, the netroots, virtually ignored.
Now, even without the help of the online component of the people-powered progressive movement, some good things happened in these districts. Three of these seats now sport members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus: IL-17 (Phil Hare), HI-02 (Mazie Hirono) and MN-05 (Keith Ellison). Further, some of the more odious Democrats occupying ultra-blue districts were removed, including
Greg Meeks (NY-11), Ed Case (HI-02) and Harold Ford (TN-09). I find it hard to imagine that their replacements won't be real improvements. Yet further, we probably lost something in OH-06 and OH-13, but the current representatives have moved on to bigger and better things, so it isn't really a loss. Even further, while it was probably a move to the right, the replacement of Cynthia McKinney in GA-04 is, I think, a very, very good thing. Good riddance, McKinney. Having arrogant, crazy--even potentially bigoted--jerks without a bone of self-recrimination in their bodies representing the left does not help the left one bit.
I cannot speak to FL-11, MD-02 and NJ-13, since I do not really know much about the new Democratic representatives from those seats. Personally, I consider my inability to speak to the condition of these districts a very bad sign. The fifty-state strategy does not just mean we play in the deep red areas of the country--it means we play in the deep blue areas, too. If we don't, Representatives like Chaka Fattah can be replaced with Representatives like Albert Wynn. If we do, Representatives like Mazie Hirono can replace Representatives like Ed Case. Most of the movement's favorite Representatives are from safe blue districts, such as Louise Slaughter and John Conyers. Playing in safe, open Democratic districts is where we can breed a new generation of national leaders for the movement. For 2008, in order to be a fully-fledged, mature political movement, the netroots have to play a major national role in safe Democratic open seats.
While it is hard to forecast where new retirements will come from, we must stay vigilant. For example, one ultra-safe Democratic seat that might come open in 2008 would be my home district, PA-02. Chaka Fattah, whom I mentioned above, is a fantastic representative who is likely to run for Mayor of Philadelphia. Also, he happens to occupy the third bluest district in the entire nation. (It is difficult to explain just how blue this district is. Voting 89% for Kerry doesn't even really explain it, because it is off the charts of the American left-right spectrum. Hell, in my neighborhood, I might actually be something of a moderate. The very large anarchist community is the left wing. Green party registration equals Republican registration in my precinct--and those Republicans are moderates. Moderate Republicanism is a third or fourth party in this area. Republicans of the sort who control the nation party do not really exist outside of a fringe 1-2%).
Fattah would start the campaign as the front-runner for Mayor. If he wins, it is very likely that a machine candidate will be hand-picked by the local ward leaders. With the progressive movement only firmly in command of one of the twenty or so wards in the district (we have made movement in a handful of others, but not to the point of control), it is very likely that a less agreeable, machine candidate could be easily nominated to take Chaka Fattah's place. Now, that new Democrat would probably vote reasonably well (Bob Brady, head of the Philadelphia machine, actually votes pretty well), but that certainly is not a guarantee (see Williams, Anthony the state senator whose district I represent on the state committee). What is a guarantee is that the new candidate would not feel any allegiance to the people-powered movement and never be an all-star, even though this is the sort of district where we should expect progressive heroes.
If you need any more examples, just remember that in 2002, Rahm Emmanuel narrowly defeated a grassroots candidate in his ultra-blue open seat. There is no district so blue or so red that that the netroots should not be giving a major assist to local reformers. The fifty-state strategy means changing blue districts, too. In 2008, we have to prepare our game face for the entire playing field.
