I think Domenici will be really hard to beat. I think whoever is the new chair of the RNSC will know this too and do whatever he can to convince Domenici to stay. It's a somewhat analagous situation to Robert Byrd.
On the otherhand if Domenici does retire, I think the seat definitely moves to the top of the target list.

As an aside: I think James Inhofe might be vulnerable to the right candidate. He has some very high negative numbers, he's no longer in the majority, he's an obvious psychopath, and calling global warming a hoax is becoming less and less sound of a policy statement even in Oklahoma.

I am somewhat familiar with NM politics and, though they like their incumbents, the state has changed and is constantly receiving new residents.  It's hard to use Domenici's numbers from six long years ago as a total basis to how he'd do now, especially since the political climate from 2000 til now is markedly different.

Domenici is not that popular and NM is rapidly becoming a state where the environmental movement has a huge amount of influence.  If a credible Democrat with a solid and inspiring environmental message and/or record would be inclined to challenge him, this race is definitely top-tier.  The Dem candidate MUST have environmental gravitas to head off a green candidacy that could get ten percent of the vote in that state.  (the greens have ballot access there).  Also, our voters will turnout in a presidential year, whereas, Domenici would be MUCH harder to knock-off in a midterm election year.

However, Domenici, being a lackey of oil and gas, would have unlimited funds to run and our person must be able to hold his or her own in the fundraising department.

If Domenici would retire, the seat is ours if we run a good enough race.

My guess is that he does not run and we take the seat if the green party doesn't insist on running a candidate of their own.

What was the flub?

In retrospect, Schumer wasted time and money in TN that should have gone to AZ. We can win in the west, our best hope in the south is to move the ball down field. Ford didn't do that, which makes Schumer's play look incompetent. In 2008, we need to fight in the west.

Dominici's most recent approval rating was 68%, fairly impenetrable. His National Journal rating was only 70%, so he's a meek conservative, and New Mexico is only barely Democratic.

I would not bet on an easy pickup in NM-Sen unless Dominici retires (which would make it a likely pickup).

It's widely known on Capitol Hill that Domenici has Alzheimer's.  Pay close attention to his public appearances, and you'll start to see a pattern of bizarre slip-ups.  At the DC funeral for Wellstone in 2002, he was obviously out of place and didn't even understand what he was supposed to do when it was written right in the program.  For him to run again, well, I'd say he must be delusional, which seems insensitive under the circumstances but I can't think of a better way to put it at the moment.  He's already finishing his 6th term; he was first elected in 1972.  NM is a swing state that may be trending our way (it may not be trending at all, I don't know).  Domenici SHOULDN'T be running in 08 based on his health, but if he does, expect another Jim Bunning '04 type performance.  He is beatable.  I don't know the landscape in NM, I was thinking Udall would be a logical candidate.  (Two Udalls in the Senate, possibly with relative Gordon Smith, ha!)

NM should be a top tier Senate target in 08, along with CO and MN, maybe VA and OR or even NH.  GA on the offchance Cleland would run.  We shouldn't have any challenging Democratic retirements (Biden, Harkin, Kerry, Levin, Lautenberg), and the Rs have 21 seats to defend to our 12.  We should be able to gain 2-4 seats I'd think at this early stage.  A wildcard Hagel retirement could be interesting.

Harold Ford accomplished what almost no political pundits thought was possible, but he deserves scorn for not being liberal enough.  

Rich guy Pederson runs a good race for a nobody and loses convincingly, but that was the wiser play for Schumer?  

Schumer looks incompetent?

The only incompetence I see is being displayed by some of the commentators on this site.

MN is basically a democratic state. They had something called the Democratic Farm Labor party for a long time - it is in their roots and heritage. To win in MN, maybe what is needed is a clear portrayal or Democratic priorities. If that means "populism", it simply needs to be stated clearly.

The declining mental condition of 'Saint Pete' has been noticeable for several years now, just based on the occasional local public radio bits that his press office doles out now and again. He's very tentative and twisty in his speech and often seems to be teetering on the knife edge of losing it altogether.

Of course, Domenici has been able to retain popularity in the state by NOT talking about his positions on national legislation, few of which positions would play well if actually understood in the state. The lack of significant newspaper coverage of the political positions of Pete and his buddy Heather Wilson serves them well in their political careers.

In Bill Richardson we have a powerful, popular governor who is actively seeking national office. The problem is that in looking beyond New Mexico for his future Richardson does not seem interested in developing a new generation of political leadership in New Mexico.

Should Bill fly off to DC in a few years to become State Department head (or whatever) he would leave behind a very tentative legacy for state Democrats and no clear leadership. Given the legendarily nutty composition of the Democratic State Senate and House, this could precipitate again the bitter Demo party nominating fights that allowed Republicans to take the governor's mansion so often in recent decades. Bill needs to develop viable Democratic candidates and share some power with them. His cabinet appointments to date have not given much hope that Bill can see beyond the traditional state patronage system in order to develop attractive, competant candidates for future state offices.

The very least Bill could do before moving to Foggy Bottom is redistrict the First Congressional district, packing it with more northern New Mexico Democrats. The U. S. Supreme Court has said this interim redistricting is fine elsewhere in the country; there is no reason not to shuffle the deck in our favor in New Mexico as well. An additional 10,000 or 20,000 Democrats in the First would make Republican ownership of this district a thing of the past.

Yes, it's on the map.  The only question is what tier.

The GOP has a whopping 21 seats to defend, and we're duty bound to compete to some degree in all of them.  In hot seats like Colorado, we do the full court press.  In "hopeless" seats, like Mississippi, we do something daring and innovative and attention getting, like running an African-American candidate.

New Mexico will likely be somewhere in between.

Good points: Blue state trending bluer in a trending blue region. In some ways, NM is an anchor of the newly blue West and a harbinger of changes in other Rocky states.  Growin latino population.  Several good possible candidates (seems to me a run by Udall or Richardson would be the only ones that might influence Domenici into retirement).

Bad: entrenched, many-term incumbent who "everyone knows is a lock for re-election". Just like the CW said about Allen and DeWine in 2005.