Instant Runoff Voting - FifteenNineteen's Endorsement

FifteenNineteen, the blog on politicking and electioneering, officially gets behind this important reform to our electoral process.

Today I am announcing FifteenNineteen's first official endorsement.  Not of a candidate, not even of some divisive policy issue.  Since this blog's primary concern is the electoral process and how it is used, maneuvered through, and exploited, this first endorsement is for a reform of that very process. FifteenNineteen endorses the nation-wide implementation of instant runoff voting.

Instant runoff voting (or IRV), if you haven't heard of it yet, is a voting system in which voters rank candidates in order of preference rather than selecting only one candidate.  It is actually a very simple and brilliant idea, though for me to try and explain it may make it seem complicated.  Let me give it a shot.  Keep reading...

Let's use a fantasy presidential race between Abraham Lincoln (R-IL) and Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY).  Those on the left of the political spectrum don' t think FDR is liberal enough (as-if), so they form a new party, the Civil Rights for Microorganisms Party, and nominate Eugene V. Debbs.  Likewise, some on the right are not convinced of Honest Abe's conservative bona fides so they form their own party, call it the Drown the Government in a Bathtub Party, and nominate G. Gordon Liddy.

So we have four candidates now, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Debbs, and Liddy.  As you can guess, the only two with any realistic chance of winning are Lincoln and Roosevelt.  The way our system works now, Debbs would siphon votes that would otherwise go to FDR, and Liddy would do the same with votes that would probably otherwise go to Lincoln (of course some Debbs voters might otherwise vote for Lincoln, and some Liddy voters might have voted for Roosevelt, but a tiny, tiny amount).

What we get, then, is what is sometimes unfairly called the "spoiler effect".  Let's assume Lincoln and FDR have been polling dead even, and on election day Debbs doesn't really pull too many votes, a little under 1% of the total.  However, Liddy has started a movement, and winds up with 3% of the vote.  In the end, we have Lincoln with 47.5%, FDR with 48%, Liddy with 3% and Debbs with 1%.  Even though more voters wanted a president who was right-of-center, FDR wins the election without a true majority.

Now, let's assume we have instant runoff voting for this fantasy election.  If we have the same numbers, we can assume that the typical Liddy voter would rank Liddy as his first choice, and Lincoln as his second.  Likewise, Debbs voters would probably rank FDR as their second choice.  Since in this first round of voting no one has garnered over 50%, there is an instant runoff.  No one has to vote again.  Instead, the least of the vote-getters (in this case, Debbs) automatically  gets eliminated, and their second choices are given what were once Debbs votes.  That gives FDR just about 49%, and doesn't really move Lincoln's numbers, so we still don't have a majority.  So we eliminate the next-lowest vote-getter, Liddy.  Most of Liddy's votes go to Lincoln, very few to FDR, and so Lincoln ends up with 50.5%.  That's a majority, and Lincoln wins the election.

The point of this is not that IRV helps one party or one ideology over another.  In 2000, it probably would have given Gore the presidency, but in 1992 it might have kept George H. W. Bush in office.  Even that, though, is highly debatable, because with IRV no one has to worry about voting for a "spoiler" who will "steal votes" from a more viable candidate.  With that kind of freedom to vote one's conscience, it's impossible to say exactly how people would end up casting their ballots.  Certainly, Nader would have gotten more first preference votes in 2000 than he ended up with had IRV been in place, possibly higher than the 5% he was polling at at the time, but it's hard to imagine most of those people placing Bush as their second choice.  My point is, though, we can't say for sure.

What we can say for sure is that with IRV, we can have a more open contest, and therefore, a more open and vigorous debate.  Major party candidates no longer have to fear their third party rivals, but still keep the incentive to woo their supporters and address their issues in order to win their second-preference votes.  Ralph Nader, a good, honest man who was eviscerated by many on the left in 2000 and 2004 for deciding to run for president, need never have been blamed or have his integrity or motives doubted.  He would still hold the high place in people's minds as he always has, and added something valuable to our political discourse at the same time.

Imagine the televised presidential debates!  No more will we have to suffer through two be-suited men squirming around their positions, both trying to slither into the same popular stances, trying hard not to disagree too much, or look too confrontational.  Instead, we'd have a stage of four, five, or six candidates, all with strongly held views, debating them with passion and genuinely trying to persuade voters to see things their way, and to trust them with their support.  Surely, the American people would be more engaged and interested in the political process if this were to be the case.

And in the end, no matter who wins, that person will have a majority of the nation's support.  Even if they weren't everyone's first choice, we can feel secure than they were at least the first or second choice of most of the nation, and anyone who can win that way will reap the political benefits of being acceptable to the majority of the American public.

With instant runoff voting, everyone wins.  Except, of course, the guys who lost.  But you get the idea.

If you want to learn more, and I bet you do, go to my official website and check out the links on the right-hand sidebar.  Then get involved, contact your lawmakers, and call the President.  Make your voice heard so your voice can be heard.

Then maybe we'll take another look at this Electoral College thing.


If you like this piece, I hope you'll tell your friends, other bloggers, and anyone you pass on the street.  You can also take a second and Digg it.  I, as always, would really appreciate it.


Poll
Do you think the United States should implement Instant Runoff Voting?
Yes
No
I don't get it
I don't care

Votes: 5
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: Instant Runoff Voting (none / 0)

IRV isn't perfect but it's better than the current system and would encourage more independant and third party canidates to run for office as well as lead to much more interesting primaries ;)


by Quinton on Wed Nov 22, 2006 at 05:40:45 PM EST

Re: Instant Runoff Voting - FifteenNineteen's Endo (none / 0)

Look, not everyone holds the perspective that you have described regarding the virtues of IRV (or "IRV", as I often put it). I have many reasons. First a little background. I began my blogging obsession in the lead-up to the 2004 "election," at repentantnadervoter.org. I even took up half their bandwidth at times (I was younger!). Many people there really regretted having voted for Nader in 2000, and it might not go too far to say they even "eviscerated" him! Not me, however. I had no penance to fulfill, having voted for Gore anyway. But I covered the spoiler effect issue up and down and every which way. It was rather fun, because there was just so much creativity that could be injected into the whole topic of "Nader Repentance." REPENT SINNER!!! It was I who exposed the many College Republicons that had injected themselves into the campus Nader Drives. I posted pictures of fat Republicon dorks sitting in on Nader panels. I dredged up many, many official memos bearing various Republicon State Party seals that begged rank and file Republicons to donate money to the Nader campaign. I PERSONALLY COINED THE TERM "SPOILER EFFECT" -- no one had used that term until well after I had begun pumping it out.

We had had a rather flamboyant Australian guy who said that "IRV" was great in the very minor ways it was used for a handful of elections in Australia. He in insisted that John Howard was serving his final days as prime minister of Australia, and was set to crow like a raven that would come upon a dead rat. We argued a bit about "IRV," and I then decided to put it to "the test." This was not so easy, as the mathematical "tests" designed to check its validity turned out to be profoundly flawed. (I do a lot of stuff in Mathematical logic and linguistics.) I found the only valid way to check for its validity was to run endless brute-force attacks on "IRV" scenarios.

The number and viability of subtle, yet pervasive, ways for "election hackers" to create security holes in all forms of "IRV" stunned me. And I began the search for a reasonably simple, stable version of "IRV" that could withstand brute-force assaults. I found none. I also found that "IRV" was advocacy was being generously supported by The Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and Carnegie Mellon Foundation. So, I reluctantly concluded that "IRV" was essentially a trap that would doom all other viable efforts to institute any spoiler effect neutralizing election methods. It was depressing. And probably hundreds of Green Party, or semi-Green advocates had by this time been 100% sold on the amazingly attractive, yet nearly useless "IRV" methods.

So, below, I repost what I see as one of the best explanations of a method that can actually completely overcome the baleful consequences of the spoiler effect, which I call the Black Hat Syndrome these days. Here it is:

There are so many reasons why, in this age of coordinated electronic propaganda, democracy just doesn't work. First of all, as I have said so often, it is totally foolish to believe that people who are one paycheck away from starvation would be permitted to wield the real power of the vote when their electronic media environment is owned by a few multi-billionaires. Ask yourself "Would that be possible?" Or try this more difficult one: "Can pigs fly?"

Our plurality voting system extracts 99% of the decision making power of the voters. If you would like to vote for a White Hat, say Nader, but there is a Gray Hat, say Kerry, and a Black Hat, say Bush, in the contest, you would be suicidal to vote for the White Hat. So you are screwed.

Some misled people think IRV voting will help. It never has, never will, be helpful. As I have pointed out before, there are an infinite number of different methods for counting the ranked ballots of IRV, and the best of them require that specific information about every ballot bust be conveyed into one location, one computational funnel. And the the computation of the vote is exceedingly intricate for the best methods of counting. Moreover, you will still need to give your first rank vote to a Gray Hat, If a Black hat is present in the contest.

All these woes disappear if you just have three distinct runoffs for each election. The first runoff is an approval election that narrows the field to, say, eight candidates. With the approval method, each voter can cast just one ballot for each potential candidate that she or he approves of. There would need to be some practical limit on the number of people each voter could give one vote to, maybe 20, since we can't deal with lists bearing thousands of names. The second runoff, in which each voter could give just one vote to as many of the remaining eight as she or he wishes, would narrow the field to just the two candidates who get the most votes. The third and final runoff would be simply a race between those two candidates. I would suggest that, for each runoff, the voting could be allowed to run over a span of three days. The ballots would be hand-marked, and hand-counted by randomly drafted citizens, with each day's results announces at each polling station on the morning after that day's voting. I would give the citizens a week to deliberate between each runoff, so there would be three days for the first runoff, plus a week, the same time for the second runoff, then three days to complete the final runoff. Such a procedure of consecutive runoff approval voting would ensure that the citizens would feel that they would be making real and serious decisions.


by blues on Wed Nov 22, 2006 at 06:31:04 PM EST

IRV Problems (none / 0)

This section of the Condorcet method article at Wikipedia gives a 5-minute example of problems with IRV, various IRV-like methods, and our current "first-past-the-post" plurality method.

I think most readers will walk away with the feeling that Condorcet methods are better than IRV, but with no clear idea of which Condorcet method is the best.

Half of Congress thinks evolution is a trick of Satan, so I can't really imagine them coming up with a good, informed choice between the "Smith/Minimax" and "cloneproof Schwartz sequential dropping" algorithms for counting the national vote.

Dennis Kucinich, Progressive Democrat for President in 2008
by hoose on Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 12:02:06 AM EST

IRV vs. Approval Voting (none / 0)

My brother is something of an expert on voting systems; he has an excellent essay on his LJ on why IRV is actually worse than our current plurality system.  He also explains Approval Voting, one of the simplest forms of Condorcet system and a viable alternative to IRV and plurality.  I think his piece is significantly easier to follow than the Wikipedia article hoose mentioned.


Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 10:15:56 AM EST


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