We can now add NH 01 to the possible pick up list...

I think that NC08 has a favorable Democratic lean to it, but I can't recall the exact numbers.  

>>The Republican base got exactly what it wanted

they got attention, but not results, which actually is par for the course for the last few decades.  Lot of rhetoric, but no abortion ban, no social security reform.  They did get a couple gimmes on the bench re: SCOTUS.  But the corporate shills really reaped the rewards:  Medicare, bankruptcy, capital gains, estate tax, etc.

this is an awesome post.  totally accurate.

the funny thing is if these guys (on both sides) are pros.  they've studied public opinion/voting behavior in places like georgetown or virginia where they have great programs.  so they really know what the keys to vote choice (and thus, victory) are: 1) party id; 2) overt references to race/gender/class; 3) candidate preference (mostly in non-urban areas).  

as such, both sides have employed strategies to identify and turn out their voters along these lines.  the funny thing is that the republican coalition isn't actually big enough on party preference, etc. to drag in legislative majorities.  so these guys, they've been getting incumbent bonuses (since 1994, but also before), and they've been engaging in almost unbelievable levels of disinformation in their framing/agenda setting efforts.  

the national-level democrats have been kind of floundering, running on what they feel should get them in, but it's only this cycle that the payoff is coming, that the things that they learned at georgetown, etc. will start to make sense.  blue districts will become blue, and purple districts will reflect the extent of the wave.

CW wisdom epitaph that the traditional media should be writing next Wednesday.

Karl Rove is supposedly a genius for adopting a polarizing, turn out the base strategy. However, it now looks entire possible that this strategy will blow up in his face. Polarized environments force people to choose sides, and after the 2006 elections there will be only a handful of Republicans left in blue House districts, while dozens of Democrats remain in purple and red districts. Creating a polarizing environment and only talking to the Republican base has resulted in only the Republican base siding with Republicans. The Republican base got exactly what it wanted after the 2004 elections: complete and lavish attention from their party leaders. The result looks like it will be the near-total collapse of Republicans in blue and purple districts

You're EXACTLY spot-on.

Let me play concern troll for the GOP -- you're better off sacrificing both chambers than going through with Rove's suicide pact.

Rove is no genius -- he's just another hack, a political margin trader living on borrowed money.

Most political strategists would declare bankruptcy, consider thinking about the future of their party and ideology.   Not Rove -

Just like the folks screwed most by the bankrptucy bill, he's going back to the Bank of Evangelica for another extension, another credit increase... and just like someone drowning in debt, he'll find there are always those willing to lend more, never mind the fine print... until you can't borrow another dollar, and they all want to be paid at once.  

Maybe he eeks out another big far right turnout -- but that pool's been tapped dry. It might be just enough to prevent a Whig-style collapse.  But they ain't happy -- and you better believe they're going to insist on some sort of payment before 2008. Go any further right and you might as well seriously consider trying to bring the skinheads, neo-nazis and true bottom feeders of that dead end of the political spectrum to the polls.  

Meanwhile, the shrinking but still critical middle -- they're done.  They've called the DNC collection agents on the bastard.

Were I a conservative, I'd want this current crop to lose and lose big time, while there's still a chance to remake the party for 2008.  

But hey, fortunately -- the tired old CW will likely take years to see it... and consequently, we might actually have a few years of relative peace while the right sorts exactly what they want - a 50 state, 300 million company town that pays in worthless company script, a theocray wrapped in nationalism, or a sane counterweight to progressivism.

By all means, my pudgy friend -- drag it out.  So long as you flame out with an incompetent boob at the helm rather than a true madman  -- our children will likely thank you.  

The result looks like it will be the near-total collapse of Republicans in blue and purple districts.

That Rove and Bush survived this long is their artful manipulation of post-9/11.  Of course everyone knows that.

But for all of Rove's acclaimed genious in 2002 and 2004, I don't think it's too early to anticipate the other shoe hitting the floor regarding how his divisive methods wasted years of opportunity. He created a Faustian bargain with the electorate that could not last. Where's the genious in that?

Thank goodness the 2006 elections will push 1984-like scenarios farther away from becoming reality.

Winning all the blue districts will only give a majority in the House of 5 if my math is right.  Not enough to push through meaningful legislation, given that you lose 30-40 conservative Democrats on most votes.  

We need as many Democrats as possible in order to at least have to opportunity to educate independents, moderates, and even some conservatives to the correctness of the progressive vision.  Of course, that requires getting Democratic members of Congress getting on the same progressive page and doing the hard work to transform the hearts and minds of the public.

While this election may (assuming we take control) give us a great start in that process, the real work will begin afterwards - hearding the cats that are the Democratic Party.

That being said, yes, grabbing these blue seats will definitely be helpful in maintaining a majority.

The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

If Karl's plan ran/runs a substantial risk of all-or-nothing type results - for which they have gotten a good run - it would explain the absolute-type reign of 'the Hammer' and the GOP congress.  They both needed to keep everybody, and I mean everybody, on the reservation, and they also need to reap as much as possible, because it could all go away very quickly.

Not that those points make their behaviour acceptable or redeamable; in fact, it makes that style of politics all the more UNacceptable, because too many people will be driven to 'get while the gettin' is good.'

Is the NH poll correct? says 9/24..should it be 10/24? On a side note...isn't it weird we are carpet bombing the east coast but somehowe NJ got left out..there are enough GOP incumbents there that need a good kicking..but somehow they may escape the fate of their brethren in NY and PA..what a shame.

PA-06 and 07 are still Republican districts by registration although that may change in time.

The last 48 hours have probably been the worst 48 in Sweeney's Life (NY-20).  Outted on his wife's domestic violence call to State Police, he is in a desperate arriere garde operation, putting his wife on to play the offended innocent.  NY-20 may be a real bellweather state (viz. Walter Shapiro) and it's looking bluer all the time.

U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk: seeing solid base of well-heeled Jewish suburbanites and veterans slipping through fingers ...

Culprit: unfolding scandal featuring Kirk aide emailing not-so-veiled threat to prominent Jewish businessman, vowing revenge if he doesn't stop backing Kirk's opponent; veterans question Kirk's loyalty upon examining his bad habit of repeatedly voting to cut their benefits ...

Challenger Seals: untested/unknown, but with blue-chip background and magnetic effect on voters ...
It's Seals in a squeaker

This is very, very reassuring.  I was starting to get worried that in 08, a Presidential year, we were gonna have a dozen or two House incumbents running against our nominee.  It's good to see that a lot of our pickups are going to come from people who will firm up swing Dem districts.  That can only help!

It's seemed to me for some time that we can make the case that Congressional republicans are now a regional party: the deep South and a vertical strip of the plains states.

Just as 1994 washed away virtually all of the remnants of the southern Democrats, 2006 will do the same for the northeastern "moderate" Republicans. The northeast and the coast are now pretty much out of play for Republican House races. The Republicans will remain competitive in parts of the mid-west and Rockies, but for the foreseeable future we play in their territory.

IA-2 is another blue district where the challenger, David Loebsack, is competitive with the long-term incumbent, Jim Leach.

Loebsack for Congress