House District Election Results Maps

Bumped--Chris

Say hello to the new House map:

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Click to enlarge.  Apologies to Alaska, Hawaii, and Georgia, which doesn't show the new district boundaries.

This map shows how much support Republicans received in each district.  Because you can't see the urban, overwhelmingly Democratic districts at this scale, it skews towards Republicans.  It shows how Republicans did in rural/exurban/suburban districts: not that great.  The map also makes it easy to see where the battle for control of the House was waged (mostly), in a belt from New Hampshire through New York and Pennsylvania to Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky, and westward to Iowa, the Plains, and the Mountain West.

Below, more ways to look at the amazing victory last week.  The map above might look a bit too red for comfort, but wait till you see the map from 2004.... Cross posted at DailyKos.

The map from 2004 was unquestionably much more red.  Many seats went uncontested by Democrats.  (Note the scale:  All seats with >70% Republican vote, which includes uncontested races, have the same color.)  

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Click to enlarge.

Comparing the two maps shows a combination of two success stories:  running more candidates, and increasing the Democratic support in the vast majority of districts.
Below, the change in percent votes cast for Republicans.  The most drastic changes, again, are the result of one or the other party not running a candidate in either 2004 or 2006.  That being said, look at this solid sea of blue:

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Click to enlarge.  Close-ups here of northeast and northcentral regions.

These moral victories are just the icing on the cake of the real victories we saw last week.  They represent real progress in bringing voters to the Democratic side.  

Here are two more maps:  The state-by-state average share of the House election vote that Republicans received in 2004 and 2006.

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Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Click to enlarge.

These maps include the small urban districts and give a little better idea of the general support in each state, but the numbers are still skewed by uncontested seats.  In Massachusetts, for example, the Republicans seem to have pretty much given up on running for the house, which is why the state is at such an extreme.

To avoid that problem, the map below shows the change in each state's Republican support, but calculated only using districts that were contested in both 2004 and 2006.  This map show the state-by-state change in voter sentiment pretty well (except for Massachusetts, where only one seat was contested both years.)

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Click to enlarge.

An overwhelming shift, across the country, except parts of the Deep South.  But even there, Howard Dean's nose-pickers in Mississippi, at least, must have done a good job.  There's also less of a shift evident in the urban West Coast and Northeast Corridor, where support for Democrats was already high.

Some other interesting things to point out:

Republicans gained in Vermont (20 points) - where Bernie Sanders left his seat - Louisiana (4 points) - where Katrina displaced Democrats - and Georgia (1 point) - where there was redistricting.  But nowhere else.  

Democratic incumbents in the Dakotas far outperformed themselves compared to 2004.

That's the graphic House summary on a national level.  If you hunger for more, you can find a ongoing series with region-by-region analysis, and, yes, lots of fun maps in ManfromMiddltown's diaries. And, of course, here is an excellent national summary of all the 2006 elections by johnnygunn.

Numerical Tidbits

Republicans won by a margin of less than 10 in 29 districts; Demcrats, 25; Republicans won by a margin of less than 20 in 74 districts; Democrats, only 37.   (Numbers may change with final results.)

The percent of voters voting for Republicans decreased by an average of 3 points in all Democratic-held districts, and 7 points in all Republican-held districts.  In the Republican-held districts displayed in the DailyKos watchlist at the top of the page, Republicans lost on average 9 points of support.  These numbers are for races that were contested in both 2004 and 2006.

Take-home lesson

Johnnygunn showed us the real victories.  This diary focuses on all gains, whether they resulted in a victory or not.  Democrats are seriously pushing back against Republicans across the country, even some states in the South, like Mississippi.


Poll
When did your political awareness awaken?
Younger than 10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80

Votes: 58
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Re: House District Election Results Maps (none / 0)


by JJCPA on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:09:24 PM EST

Re: House District Election Results Maps (none / 0)

ooops....

anyway, what i mean to say was:

"ooooooooo....pretty"


by JJCPA on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:09:47 PM EST

Re: House District Election Results Maps (none / 0)

great map! makes you realize how the mountain west still has a lot more growth potential for democrats in '08.


by ariely on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:11:45 PM EST

Re: House District Election Results Maps (none / 0)

Great map.  I'd like to see the map without the outlines of the districts.  That you can see how blue Orange County, CA is!!!


by csstraw2 on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:19:13 PM EST

Thanks for the bump, Chris! (none / 0)

Please, somebody post a comment if the imageshack golden frogs appear, so I can replace the images!  Thanks!


by dreaminonempty on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:21:23 PM EST

Re: Thanks for the bump, Chris! (none / 0)

I can't see the first two images.


by MrMacMan on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 04:47:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks (none / 0)

I'm working on it.  It looks like I can't edit the diary though... perhaps because it was front-paged.


by dreaminonempty on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 05:03:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MN-06 (none / 0)

Is wrong. Its listed as 46-50, when it should be redder. 55% I think, but it could be higher.


by DaleInMinnesota on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:26:28 PM EST

Re: MN-06 (none / 0)

MN-06 is listed as 50% R, 42% D at CNN (my source, which I should have mentioned up above.)  I double checked at MPR, and they say the same thing.  There's that whole independent vote in there too!


by dreaminonempty on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 01:34:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: House District Election Results Maps (3.00 / 1)

I like the NYT's graphic on the House election, with one box per seat:


by globecanvas on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 02:02:13 PM EST

Re: House District Election Results Maps (none / 0)

The interactive version is fun to play with here.


by globecanvas on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 02:06:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

central CA (none / 0)

There's a large swoosh-shaped district in central CA that seems to have gone from blue to red between 04 and 06. Can someone tell me what district this is and explain what happened? Was it uncontested or something?


by jujube on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 03:52:53 PM EST

Re: central CA (none / 0)

I believe you are referring to what looks like the best part of the 22nd Congressional District in CA, which mostly consists of Kern County.

This was Bill Thomas's district, the exiting Chair of Ways & Means.  In 2004 he ran un-opposed.  He declined to run in 2006 and his GOP successor, McCarthy, ran against weak opposition.  I didn't take the time to confirm, but I believe the DEM candidate, Beery, got something like 38%.  So, I believe the map for this area is not quite accurate....


by Wardo on Thu Nov 16, 2006 at 01:17:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

2004 Map (none / 0)

The bandwidth has been exceeded, and it looks like I can't edit the diary, so here it is:

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Click to enlarge.


by dreaminonempty on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 05:04:55 PM EST

2006 Map (none / 0)

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Click to enlarge.
by dreaminonempty on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 05:09:00 PM EST


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