Actually, a charasmatic upstart with not as much experience would be Obama.

I think Rudy is likely to have much of the Bush backing in order to keep the 9/11 legacy going for the next 4-8 years. With that said, I really think that the religious right, along with the Rockefeller Republicanas will become most comfortable with a Romney compromise over a McCain or Rudy one & Romney becomes the happy-face "moderate" that the Repubs feel most comfortable with in '08; my money is on him.

As someone in the SurveyUSA post comments earlier today pointed out, most of the country knows very little about Giuliani aside from the fact that he was the one who looked like he knew what he was doing on 9/11. I think once subjected to the scrutiny of the nationwide media, people won't be impressed with what they see.

He'll have to get past the religious wing of the party. He's pro-choice and he cheated on his wife (probably wives). He'll have to get past the NRA wing of the party, having been fairly pro-gun control. He's not very likeable. Basically, other than something of a tough guy image, and the fact he might be able to win a general election, he has absolutely nothing the Republicans are looking for in a candidate.  Add the fact that he's a New Yorker, and I just don't think he makes through the primary.

Now that I think about it...
Rudy would get killed if he won the nomination.  He'd be forced to the right during the primary process.  But he's also a huge corporatist.  

And with candidates like John Edwards out there, economic populism may play a big role in the coming election.  That would be a bad environment for a corporate goon.

Add to that and American public that is sick of the social conservative agenda.  

Guh.  

Only pure fear prevents him from running or the GOP from nominating him. I don't buy the bullcrap that the nation would automatically reject him at this point due to the last name. That's overreactionary nonsense. Once you get into the heart of the campaign the focus is on the individual. To use your word, Jeb on a national stage would come across as so competent in relation to GW I think he could lap up the nomination without much of a sweat, particularly given the current crop of opponents.

Just look at Jeb's favorability rating in Florida, high 50s last time I checked. He would lock up Florida, essentially meaning they would only have to focus on holding Ohio and Virginia. Frankly, I have no idea how they can pass up a national dynamic like that. Jeb will be their nominee at some point, and I still don't completely rule out 2008.

The base hates/distrusts McCain, along the same lines as our opinion of Lieberman although obviously not to that extreme. I post on a couple of balanced sites and it's literally astonishing how little support McCain has, particularly from the far right posters. The support McCain does have appears to be incredibly soft.

Guiliani is the one they champion, across the spectrum among Republicans. I started noticing that in the spring on those balanced sites, and once it was confirmed in the Strategic Vision polling I took 10/1 on Rudy winning the nomination. I don't know how the other side will strategize in the early primaries and maybe they can gang up on Rudy to knock him out, but I'm convinced if it were left to the voters it would be Rudy. Certainly more than 1 chance in 11, so I like my position. Rudy has a bit of teflon, at least that's my sense. When I tell people he was overrated in regard to 9/11, and mention his other problems, they wave it off and don't want to hear it.

My first instinct was Romney. Then those balanced sites pushed me toward Guiliani. It's tough to handicap since this is the first cycle I can remember in which the GOP nominee is not obvious. The numbers never added up for McCain in 2000 no matter how desperate the media was for a horse race. Reagan in '76 got late traction, but again the delegate situation was always against him and the party reluctant to oust a presidential pseudo-incumbent.

Good point.  I was trying to argue that a long time ago to someone from around here (I live in Northwest Florida) about how I would have loved to seen a Mark Warner vs. Giuliani matchup in '08.  You'd definitely see a Democrat win in the south again.

I'd add that Romney won't play in the south either, however, since he's mormon.

Huckabee and Gingrich have got to be the early true "conservative" front-runners...at least for these southern states.

No way will a moderate (squishy on gays, guns, god or abortion) Republican win the primary. It isn't even that he's a New Yorker, that doesn't play particularly negative in Colorado; I understand that concern in the South.

The moderate Repbulcians are leaving or being driven out of the GOP in Colorado.That can't be fixed from the top down by a moderate Republican, it would have to be a rip-roaring conservative, like Reagan.

All that said, it has to be McCain by several length. I think he is able to hold the middle and play the right-wing.

This is entirely correct. While being from New York doesn't help in western states like Colorado or New Mexico, it isn't the kiss of death.

But, a New York liberal Republican? One who likes gays? One who isn't a fire-eating anti-abortionist?

How's that going to play in South Carolina? Guliani has zero chance. Just zero.

I would say Jeb, but the Bush family has had it's chance. About the only way Jeb could win is if the Democrats nominate Hillary. Then the Republicans can counter the thinking: "Oh, God! Not ANOTHER Bush, what do the Republicans think this is? A monarchy? Bush III? NO thanks!

They can point out, what do you want? Return to Hillarycare? or Bush?

That still doesn't sound too good though does it? I think a lot of voters would be disgusted with both candidates. But, Bush might win, as horrible as that sounds!

But, I don't expect Hillary to be the nominee, which sinks Jeb. Maybe in 2012 Jeb could be re-habilitated and run as the "other white meat." But not 2008. We've had quite enough of the Bush family thank you very much!

So, it's down to Brownback or McCain.

Brownback will have the support of the true-blue conservatives who think Bush failed because he let liberals bamboozle him into an "amnesty" policy on immigration instead of lighting our highways with burning illegal immigrants.

If Brownback wins, I think the Republicans forfeit the center. The corporate CEOs who run the Republican party know that and that should sink Brownback, just as John Dean aroused such fear in the corporate board-rooms that he was ridiculed to death (God knows why they did it besides fear of the people). What happened to Laffey in Rhode Island would happen to Brownback. The base might love Brownback, but they aren't going to get what they want in 2008. The fix will be in.

That leaves McCain. The right wing will just have to swallow their distrust of McCain in the interests of victory, just as the left swallowed John Kerry in 2004. Nobody attacked Kerry from the left. The base gave up all scruples and rallied around him the minute he looked like the winner.

The Republicans will do the same. All McCain has to do is win a couple of primaries and get all the media treating him as the presumptive winner and he's in like Flynn! (Errol Flynn that is - movie reference).

Unfortunately, the independents will swing to McCain by 10 points and that will sink any Democrat.

If Romney is the nominee he will lose horribly.  Especially in southern states.

I think Hagel(P)/Romney(VP) is an intriguing ticket.

It combines the "New Straight Express" Hawk capable of energizing the Republican west (blunting recent dem advances) with a social conservative who has enough east coast credibility to force Dems to stretch their defense.

McCain is fading. Guliani and some of the others would risk a third party run from the religious right.

McCain and Romney have been taking the lion's share, with Frist picking up the few odd scraps.  I wouldn't doubt Giuliani's ability to rally some support, but right now he's waaaay behind McCain and Romney.

Chris is right that the money men can trump the theocons in the primaries.  McCain, however, is the candidate they are backing right now.  Should McCain drop out (unlikely, unless the cancer gets worse), then maybe Giuliani will be able to pick up the pieces.  Failing that, though, I think the field is a little too crowded right now.

Everyone loves a weight loss story. I read an interview with Tyne Daly once, and she said she never got so much attention and adulation as when she lost 15 pounds. Huckabee has a great act that conceals his extremist views.

He's my pick too for the GOP for all the reasons you stated.  Thanks, it's been a long day :)

The bottom line is....

Who will doorbell for you?

Who will phonebank for you?

Who will back you in a group of potential supporters even when it's hard to do so?

Yeah, big Republican bucks will be looking for a corporatist choice.  Money isn't enough, though - you need committment and support and people willing to work in the trenches.

You don't think a religous right candidate can't do what we did with Dean, $10, $20 at a time and a little fervor?  You think someone like Guliani can make like Lieberman and buy votes outright on a national scale?

Guliani may be pushed hard by the Bloomberg crowd, but the grunts that do the real work in the Republican party are either anti-tax, anti-gun control, anti-immigration or anti-secularism.  And much of that crowd's conservative populism only allows for a grudging respect for corporations at best.  It will dip further if the expected recession in 2008 comes home to roost.

Guliani will be crushed.  McCain doesn't have support in any real depth from either side of the Republican fence (though the media seems to love him and will gladly sell him to independent voters).

I don't really know if Jeb wants to take this on right now instead of in 2012 - he may see that, with the friction bound to happen between the Dems in Congress and W, the resentment against W might be a huge milstone around any Republican Presidential candidate in 2008.  (But he probably has the best shot at uniting the party at a national level.)

And as for the religous right - they are demanding to be fed, or they will walk away again, and this time in larger numbers.  Ensure their bubbles are airtight and wave bye-bye to the greater world for a while.

But if they are fed, that might just give more impetus to the independents to vote Democratic again.

We have a rough patch to go through to determine a Presidential candidate for 2008.  But the Republicans have a minefield.

"Nothing good can come from New York for the Yahoos down South."

This kind of talk, though thoroughly understandable given much of the South's reactionary public leaders, is counter-productive for those of us down here working for change.  Remember: even in the reddest of Southern states, there are at least 20-40% Dems, a good chunk of them strong progressives.  And they're the best, scrappiest, and most courageous progressives you'll ever meet.  It doesn't take much to be a progressive in New York.  It takes a boat-load of courage to buck community and family to think progressively in the South (see Lillian Smith or Clarence Jordan or Will Campbell or Bill Moyers or John Edwards or Al Gore).  And there are thousands upon thousands who do.  Don't write them off, don't write their South off: they need your support.  So if you'll allow me to amend: "nothing good can come from New York from the RIGHT-WING CONSERVATIVE yahoos in the South." :)

Frankly I hope the GOP nominates the most fire-breathing theocon troglodyte they have. Someone who scares the crap out of urban and suburban independents and moderate republicans.

With luck it will take them years to recover from the damage by which time the theocons will be long since thrown under the bus.

You know, there's something to that. If he's basically ignored in the mudslinging phase of the sure-to-be-vicious primaries, he might be able to squeak by.

It'll be the Publican's Walter Mondale if it happens, though. Cat-murderer boy doesn't have the charisma to get national votes, he's not a brilliant speaker, and he's already heavily mired in political muck, both ethically and morally. I mean, he'd have a chance if charismaless, triangulating HRC or someone of her ilk was our candidate, but consider Al Gore or Wes Clark running against Frist.

Dear god I really hope Frist is the nominee.